Sic Semper Tyrannis

Egyptian Developments - Yusuf al-Misry

Just thought to discuss one aspect of the Egyptian situation with Pat and all the friends here as in fact media reports in the US are getting way much better than earlier in reporting the day to day events. Yet, there is an obvious failure in discussing where these events lead, or the trends that emerge to create a new dynamism in Egypt and the region.

We all know by now that the MBs will win the day in the new parliament followed by the NDP. The question now is : then what?. The main concern of the Egyptians is the economic situation. Their victory in the 25^th of January lifted expectations to an unrealistic level. This brings  a sense of empowerment and a lack of patience.

On one hand, we have the Islamists who really do not have any economic plan other than returning to what was happening under Mubarak minus the flagrant corruption (to a certain degree). This pattern of economic “development” does not develop anything.   In the best case scenario the MBs will be unable to deliver fast enough and in the worst case they will not deliver at all.

With the youth who found their road to the main squares in Egyptian cities we might be in for a prolonged period of instability. Those who say that the instability is a result of the fall of Mubarak are simply wrong because his regime was unsustainable anyway. The question then is the question now :  if the Egyptians do not find soon enough a convincing path to real development we will be back to square one.

If such a path does not yield results fast enough it should at least be convincing to the majority of the population that it will eventually change the horrifying unemployment figures (the real ones).  It does not seem likely that either of these things will happen.   That being so, we will witness a couple of years of relative and uneasy calm at best.

Other issues that really need to be discussed is the relative gain of weight of the periphery countries surrounding the region as a result of the relative weakening of the “Arab World” – (God knows how I dislike this term). Also there are growing prospect of Shia unrest in the Gulf. Could it be the following wave?. But it is safer to remain in Egypt for now. Sorry for not writing more often.   Yusuf al-Misry

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I have said from the beginning that Egypt's main problem is economic and cultural, not political.  It is not a matter of personalities.  Egyptians just have too many children for the size of the national economic product.  pl

 

 

#History According To Prof Baram by Yusuf al-Misry

 
Prof Baram,

There are many reasons why one should go back to history. It could be an effort, if analyzed neutrally, to understand how different forces play out and shape the outcome of a certain period of time, or to pick an event from here and there to prove a subjective point related to the one’s own argument about that period or the present. I believe that what counts to people on this site is reading previous chapters of history to figure out where we are going particularly in times of uncertainty like those now in the Middle East.

As many already know, what is important in looking at the issues you and I have been debating with the participation of many friends here is the context in which any event took place. For many of the friends here, this is not done merely as an intellectual exercise, or as propaganda. If we understand, from studying previous periods of history, how religious fundamentalism spreads in a place, for example, we will be able to know if it is possible to defeat it and how.

#Debating the issue of US intervention – A view from the Middle East by Yusuf al-Misry

 
This is a contribution to the debate about US intervention in the Middle East which is restrained obviously by the fact that it comes from a non- American. It will be easy to dismiss any views of that kind with a simple reminder that they come from someone who does not pay any price for whatever he says. Yet, I believe it may be a plus to have an open debate with all views considered, which helps to overcome any timidity or hesitation in my part.

#Ajdabiya Is About to Fall by Yusuf al-Misry

 
In few hours Qaddafi’s war to force the East into submission will begin.  The butcher’s forces are preparing to attack Ajdabia then Benghazi. President Obama has just missed a great opportunity to rebuild Arab trust in the USA. Libyans should use O’s words in Cairo about democracy and American support  for Arabs quest for freedom to defend their homes and children.

The so called “international community” prefers a weakened Qaddafi to an “unknown,” so they get better oil deals in another bloody replay of the Lockerbie settlement. But this shame will never be forgotten. When the post massacres negotiations will begin to “rehabilitate” the butcher once more, his reintegration into this community will be paid for by the Libyans’ oil after they will have already paid with their blood.

Even sanctions are not forced now; they will be forced later when the “job” is done. The “postfestum” sanctions will be helpful as a negotiating chip. This is why everyone now is “pressuring” Q so long as he remains in power to be squeezed further later on, with “advisors” and “consultants” a la Blair intermediating the “rehabilitation.” A big boat carrying military equipment landed in Tripoli Friday 5pm and unloading of the equipment went on till 10 am Saturday. The boat was raising a Greek flag but it is unknown where it came from. NATO naval pieces did not see it of course.  

Yusuf al-Misry

#To Prof Baram from Yusuf Al-Misry

 
Dr. Baram

I just kept asking myself what is it exactly that you wanted to say in your last post. It seemed to me that your points were: Nasser is bad- Israel is a victim- Eisenhower was wrong- I forgot the 1948 war- Amin Al Hussein was a Nazi- the 1973 war ended with Egypt’s defeated,etc.

The problem here is that you seem to be entangled in polemics rather than trying to really understand the evolution of the military rule in Egypt since 1952. You chose ” Egypt 1952-2011” to call your contribution to the debate in this site. While this explains why I did not go back to 1948, the issue was Egypt, not Israeli- Egyptian relations in the period you chose.

(Editor's note, I asked Dr. Baram to address the two upheavals.  pl)