Sic Semper Tyrannis

The Latest Syrian News

 

"Al Qaeda's Iraq-based wing, which nurtured Nusra in the early stages of the rebellion against Assad, has moved in and sidelined the organization, Nusra sources and other rebels say. Al Qaeda in Iraq includes thousands of foreign fighters whose ultimate goal is not toppling Assad but the anti-Western jihad of al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri - a shift which could extend Syria's conflict well beyond any political accord between Assad and his foes. The fighting has already cost 90,000 lives. The break-up of an important part of Syria's opposition, already splintered into hundreds of armed groups, worsens the dilemma faced by the West as it debates whether intervention to support the rebels will result in arms being placed in the hands of hostile Islamist militants. And the if the West were to intervene, it may now be under pressure to attack al Qaeda opposition forces rather than Assad "Nusra is now two Nusras. One that is pursuing al Qaeda's agenda of a greater Islamic nation, and another that is Syrian with a national agenda to help us fight Assad," said a senior rebel commander in Syria who has close ties to the Nusra Front. "It is disintegrating from within.""  Reuters

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"The Syrian opposition is demanding access to arms before planned peace talks next month, amid a growing consensus that it may take a shift in the balance of power on the battlefield before any meaningful negotiations can take place. Khalid Saleh, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Coalition, said Thursday that his group is pushing for “serious arming” of the rebels ahead of the U.S.- and ­Russian-backed negotiations. His comments come as European nations consider linking the lifting of an E.U. arms embargo to the talks. Graphic A look at the Syrian uprising nearly two years later. Thousands of Syrians have died and President Bashar al-Assad remains in power, despite numerous calls by the international community for him to step down. Latest stories on Syria Fueled by war in Syria, resurgent sectarianism tests Iraqi government Abigail Hauslohner MAY 16 Iraqi Sunnis say the prospect of a regional power shift has emboldened them to confront their government. As Syrian refu­gees settle into life in camps, Turkey seeks long-term help Kevin Sullivan MAY 15 With its Syrian refu­gee population set to double this year, Ankara wants to resettle some in U.S. and Europe. U.N. ‘strongly’ condemns Syrian government attacks on civilians Colum Lynch MAY 15 The vote pits the U.S. and Russia against each other as they try to start talks between the two sides. Video allegedly depicting atrocity by Syrian rebel revives worries about aid Loveday Morris MAY 14 Gruesome footage is released as Kerry warns Assad that the U.S. is ready to boost help for rebel forces. Obama, Cameron voice limited hope about fate of Syria conference Karen DeYoung MAY 13 News of the conference came amid a White House debate leaning sharply toward providing arms to the rebels. Syria’s rebels split into hundreds of groups, Red Cross officials says Tom Miles MAY 13 Syria’s rebels are fragmented into hundreds of armed groups that control swathes of the north. Turkey’s Erdogan to meet with Obama amid unusual public friction between countries Kevin Sullivan MAY 13 The prime minister wants the U.S. to take a more aggressive stance toward the Syria crisis. Syrian President Bashar al- Assad’s forces have made gains on the ground in recent weeks, closing in on the strategic western city of Qusair with the help of fighters from Lebanon’s Shiite Hezbollah movement. On Thursday, they repelled a rebel attack on a prison in the northern city of Aleppo. Analysts and diplomats say that those gains may dim the chance of the regime taking part in substantive talks and that the opposition needs to be strengthened. Meanwhile, the opposition has jumped at the opportunity to leverage its long-standing demand for arms."   Washpost

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In review:

The already effective jihadi Islamist domination of the "opposition" in Syria is here reported as shifting in the direction of direct AQII leadership of the movement.  It should be understood that the agenda of the Islamist jihadis in Syria is not simply the removal of the present government.  No, their agenda is for the abolition of the state of Syria as an impious western contrivance and its replacement by theocratic rule in the fom of religious rule which would revolutionize society as thoroughly as the Khmer Rouge sought to revolutionize Cambodia in a different cause.

At the same time it is now admitted by pro-"opposition" media and spokesmen that the "opposition" is losing ground in the war.  This appears to be the result of; Syrian re-organization, increased training and use of Shabiha militias and the presence and assistance of Hizbullah, Iranian and Russian materiel and in some cases, advice.  The BHO/Kerry team has proposed a conference on the war among the parties in order to facilitate the surrender of Assad's government.  The rebel response is to demand that it be armed BEFORE they will agree to attend the conference.  The BHO Administration may well agree to that since it favors the rebels.

Amazing.  pl 

 http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/us-syria-crisis-nusra-idUSBRE94G0FY20130517

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-demand-weapons-before-talks/2013/05/16/f12a304a-be5d-11e2-89c9-3be8095fe767_story.html

 

Syria: US Fantasy and Syrian Reality

 

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry issued a stern warning Tuesday to Syria’s government, saying that new help will be given to opposition forces should President Bashar Assad’s regime decide to back out of upcoming negotiations aimed at ending Syria’s two-year war. Kerry said he has every expectation that both sides in the conflict, which has left more than 70,000 dead, will participate in an international conference to negotiate a peaceful transition in Syria. The conference, which Kerry said likely will be held in early June, is noteworthy because it will be endorsed by both the U.S. and Russia, which are on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict."  washpost

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"Time said it had talked by Skype with the fighter in the video, whom it identified as Khalid al-Hamad. Hamad claimed he was driven to the gruesome acts by footage on the dead soldier's cellphone, showing him "humiliating" a naked woman and her two daughters. The US news weekly said Hamad described participating in other acts of mutilating regime forces, including militiamen known as shabiha. "I have another video clip... In the clip I am sawing another shabiha with a saw. The saw we use to cut trees. I sawed him in small pieces and large ones," Time quoted him as saying. The magazine said Hamad, a Sunni like much of the opposition fighting against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, expressed hatred of members of the leader's Alawite sect. "Hopefully we will slaughter all of them," he told the magazine. "They were the ones who killed our children in Baba Amr and raped our women," he said, referring to a neighbourhood of the central city of Homs. The video, in which Hamad leans over a uniformed body, cuts out organs and then holds one up to his mouth, has prompted an outcry around the world."  Daily Star

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1 - It is official US policy to depose Bashar Assad.  It is announced that the purpose of the Kerry conference on Syria is to arrange Assad's departure and surrender of power.  Assad knows what wil happen to him and his after he does that.  The examples in Tunisia, Egypt and Iraq are unavoidable demonstrations.  It is clear that the US had a similar fate in mind for the king of Bahrein.  It is also clear that the citizenry of the US will not accept direct US military intervention in Syria and that the French and British have not the means for that.  Therefore, one should ask what the incentives are for Assad to negotiate his own doom.  Answer - None

2- "Hopefully we will slaughter all of them," he told the magazine.  This fellow is typical of the most effective fighters against the Assad government and the existence of the "impious" state of Syria.  The Alawis, the Shia, and the Christians all know that the fall of Assad's government would be followed by a civil war among the winners and that this man's pals are the most likely to triumph.  Why?  Answer - They ARE "the meanest mothers in the valley."  In that knowledge the coalition supporting Assad will fight to the end.  pl

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-14/217077-syria-rebel-defends-gruesome-video-as-revenge-report.ashx#axzz2TMtMqrO5

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/kerry-expects-syrian-officials-to-attend-talks-for-peaceful-transition-in-syria/2013/05/14/b93f9f7e-bc8e-11e2-b537-ab47f0325f7c_story.html

 

Syrian rebels are losing.

"... analysts say there is little doubt that the pendulum is now swinging in favor of Assad, potentially putting him in a strong position to set terms if the negotiations with the opposition that the Obama administration and Russia last week agreed to sponsor eventually take place. “If things continue as they are, the government will certainly be the party that has the major advantage” in any talks, said Charles Lister of the London-based IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. “If we press pause on where we are today, it is clear the insurgency does not pose an existential threat to the regime.” Pro-Assad analysts credit a major restructuring of government forces that has better equipped them to confront the insurgency. The ranks of the conventional Syrian army — weary, depleted and demoralized by defections, casualties and more than a year of continuous fighting — are being swelled by the deployment of some 60,000 militia irregulars trained at least in part by Hezbollah and Iranian advisers."  Washpost

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Well, well well,   Does this mean that the forces of R2P do not inevitably triumph?  I have been in attendance at various Washngton meetings at which the mouthpieces of; WINEP, AEI, The Institute for the Study of  War (Kagan/Nuland neocon tool), the Syrian Rebels, etc. all proclaimed that "history was on their side" and that the Assad government would soon fall to be replaced by a liberal, multi-confessional blah-blah, etc.  The IDFGeneral Staff does not share this view.  They dread the emergence of a jihadi run theocracy in what is now Syria.

Fouad Ajami, that learned man (he who may not be questioned), opines in his oped piece cited below that the great Syrian liberalization could take place, might take place, is to be hoped for, etc.  I would remind this sainted person that hope is not a fitting basis for policy and that in fact the US has no ability whatever to determine the political outcome in Syria unless we want to do another major military intervention. All the baloney in the world about the CIA or SF sneaking around, training people or dropping bags of money out of helicopters (my experience in SE Asia and other places) will not make the Syrians obey the US.   I am a UW trained and experienced SF officer and I am here to tell you that winning wars and political outcomes that come from wars require real people with real guns who put themslves in real jeopardy.

What should the US do?  We should mind our own business.

pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/assad-forces-gaining-ground-in-syria/2013/05/11/79147c34-b99c-11e2-b568-6917f6ac6d9d_story.html?hpid=z2

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syrias-war-the-lines-that-matter-arent-red/2013/05/09/b29ac688-b808-11e2-92f3-f291801936b8_story.html

 

"War of attrition (April 2013 – present)" wiki

(For a more detailed map, see here)

"On 17 April, government forces breached a six-month rebel blockade in Wadi al-Deif, near Idlib. Heavy fighting has been reported around the town of Babuleen after government troops outflanked weakened rebel positions with troops now attempting to secure control of a main highway leading to Aleppo. The break in the siege also allowed government forces resupply two major military bases in the region which had been relying on sporadic airdrops. A spokesperson for the SOHR said that at least 50 rebel fighters had been killed or are now missing following the clashes.^[266]

On 18 April, the FSA took control of Al-Dab'a Air Base near the city of al-Qusayr.^[267] The base had no aircraft and was being used primarily to garrison ground troops. Meanwhile, the Syrian Army took control over the town of Abel. The SOHR director described the Army takeover of the town by saying that it will hamper rebel movements between al-Qusayr and Homs city. According to him, the capture of the airport would have relieved the pressure on the rebels in the area, but their loss of Abel made the situation more complicated.^[268][269] 21 rebel fighters, including one commander, were killed during the fighting for Abel.^[270] The same day, rebels also reportedly assassinated Ali Ballan, who was head of public relations at the Ministry of Social Affairs and a member of Syria's relief agency, in a restaurant at Mazzeh district in Damascus. Syria's state news agency reported that he had been killed by "gunmen".^[271]

"Syria crisis: UN's Del Ponte says evidence rebels 'used sarin'" - BBC

"Testimony from victims of the conflict in Syria suggests rebels have used the nerve gas agent, sarin, according to a leading United Nations investigator. Carla Del Ponte told Swiss TV that there were "strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof".   Ms Del Ponte did not rule out the possibility that government forces might also have used chemical weapons, but said she had not seen evidence. " BBC

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The interesting thing in this is the question of where the rebels got Sarin nerve gas.  They may have captured it.  They may have bought it from some traitor in the Syrian armed forces. 

And then there is the issue of rebel violation of an international convention against tthe use of deadly chemical weapons.

And then there is the possession of these really deadly materials by a rebel coalition that is dominated by Sunni jihadis.

Israel has reason to be worried about Shia Hizbullah's HE rocket and missile weapons.  Perhaps they should be equally concerned about the possible emergence of a sunni jihadi emirate on their northern border if and when the Assad government falls.  pl    

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22424188

"Israeli attacks inside Syria risks widening war" CSM

 

"A series of strikes on a military facility just outside Damascus last night has been widely attributed to Israel, which would make it the second Israeli attack on Syria in less than 48 hours and the third this year. Among the reported targets of the two latest attacks were consignments of Iranian Fateh-110 missiles reportedly intended for Hezbollah, which would allow the Syrian ally to launch precise attacks on Israeli targets such as Ben Gurion Airport or the defense ministry in Tel Aviv from launch pads as far north as central Lebanon. Israel has stated that it will not allow “game-changing” weapons systems to fall into Hezbollah’s hands. But Hezbollah is believed to have acquired by 2009 a Syrian-engineered version of the Fateh-110, known as the M600. Both Syrian and Iranian versions carry a 1,100-pound warhead and have a range of some 150 miles. The M600 reportedly has a basic guidance system that allows it to strike within 500 yards of its target at maximum range, enabling more accurate strikes than Hezbollah’s other long-range missiles afford."  CSM

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I am puzzled by Israel's actions.   The first air strike was evidently against weapons in transit from Jamraya to Hizbullah in Lebanon.  

That, for me,was a comprehensible military action for the purpose of denying Israel's enemy a shipment of advanced missiles of the M600 variety.

This latest strike or set of strikes was against facilities that are virtually in Damascus itself.  Mount Qasiun overlooks the city and the targets seem to have been in the valley behind the mountain.  I have eaten in several very civilian restaurants on the side that faces the town.  To strike this close to the capital of Syria is to invite escalation.

It has been my understanding that the IDF did not favor fostering the victory of the Islamist dominatated rebels.  Does this set of attacks represent an assertion by the Natanyahu government of greater control of IDF actions?  pl 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0505/Israeli-attacks-inside-Syria-risks-widening-war

"Even With U.S. Guns, Syria’s Rebels Still Might Lose" - Ackerman

 

"As the Obama administration debates belatedly arming the Syrian opposition, military analysts are arriving at an uncomfortable conclusion: the U.S. can’t hand the rebels guns or rockets and expect them to topple dictator Bashar Assad. In fact, it may never happen. Yes, the U.S. can provide lots of hardware, from shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles to communications systems to armored vehicles. That military gear can prolong the conflict, preventing dictator Bashar Assad from crushing the rebels. It is unlikely to tip the balance of the war toward the rebels so they can decisively overthrow Assad. Obama is considering a range of weaponry to the rebels, as described in the Washington Post, including surface-to-air missiles. The idea would be to ship them the weapons, bolster their war effort, and watch them topple the blood-soaked dictator — without a deeper U.S. military commitment. Except that few strategists consider that realistic. Assad has a variety of advantages — an adaptive military estimated at over 50,000; complete air superiority; chemical weapons — that he will retain even if Obama opens a new arms pipeline. Overcoming those advantages means getting, at the least, U.S. and allied airpower involved — a step the Obama administration, and especially the military, want to avoid. Especially since it might involve shooting down Iranian planes, a fateful step."  Ackerman

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I have been trying to tell people this for years now.  The Syrian rebels are not going to be able to overthrow the Syrian government no matter what we give them.

Why?

They are a rabble of bits and pieces of various movements, many of them Sunni Islamic jihadist catspaws for Saudi Arabia who are interested in nothing but creating an Islamic emirate in the territory that is now the Syrian Arab Republic.

The government's supporters are Alawi, Shia, Sunni and Christian.  This is a majority coalition.

Iran and Russia support Syria both politically and in terms of materiel

I have said before on SST that IMO the Syrian rebellion is the product of Saudi religious irredentism in the Levant.  Some reject that idea saying that there are too few Sunnis in these countries for them to rule for long.  This is a profoundly ahistoric POV.  Sunni minorities ruled these countries for centuries and they could do it again with enough Gulf money behind them. pl

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/05/syria-weapons-2/

"Syria nerve gas claims undermined by eyewitness accounts" Guardian/Observer

"New questions have emerged over the source of the soil and other samples from Syria which, it is claimed, have tested positive for the nerve agent sarin, amid apparent inconsistencies between eyewitness accounts describing one of the attacks and textbook descriptions of the weapon. As questions from arms control experts grow over evidence that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons on a limited scale on several occasions, one incident in particular has come under scrutiny."  Guardian Observer

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As I expected, the evidence of Syrian government use is ambiguous and doubtful. Opinion on this matter is divided in the US IC.  Michael Oren the Israeli ambassador to the US was very cautious on FNS today when Wallace tried to pressure him into helping bully BHO towards war in Syria.  Oren was a strategic intelligence analyst in IDF General Staff intelligence.  When pressed by Wallace over a statement made in Israel that the Syrian government had used Sarin in the civil war, Oran said, "Look Chris, it's an estimate."  Wallace did not want to hear that, so Oren said it again.

Apparently the likud/neocon/wilsonian/R2P crowd see a US war in Syria as a necessary predicate to bullying the US into a war with Iran.  To obtain that predicate they are trying pin Obama to foolish statemetns he has made about "red lines."  No head of state should ever make statements like that.  They limit options.  

And today, in the WP we have Anne-Marie Slaughter, the doyenne of the R2P ladies, hectoring the president about his responsibilities.  The tone is much the same as that used by America's mommy, Mika B, on her daily New York city kaffee klatch.  "If you are not a good boy, we will hurt you" is the basic message.  Mika implied the other day that she will pursue Baucus even in retirement for his sinful vote at the OK Corral.  How would you like to be a student of the Slaughter woman?

It is rare to discover someone acting rationally in the ME, but if Bashar Assad was sensible he would ask someone, anyone, to come and take all that stockpiled gas away.  It is of no use to him.  It no longer has a deterrent value against Israel and he can't use it against the rebels. The  rebels might capture some of it.  Get rid of it!  pl 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/apr/28/syrian-nerve-gas-claims-eyewitness

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/obama-should-remember-rwanda-as-he-weighs-action-in-syria/2013/04/26/08f77c20-ae8a-11e2-8bf6-e70cb6ae066e_story.html

 

 

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Sequester - Trust?

-Syria .   So now we have the emergence of supposed proof of Assad's government being in violation of the self assigned "red line" of poison gas use against the rebels. Let's see the proof.  Let's see and hear something beyond Andrea Mitchell beating her drum for war.  This is especially important on this day when the arch deceiver (or buffoon) is fawned over at his presidential library.  He still does not admit that his administration chose to believe fabricated information in the matter of Iraq's posession of nuclear weapons and poison gas. Now we have Obama and his Sancho Panza man (Biden) walking the American people toward war in Syria in pursuit of god knows what interest of the US. Don't think for a minute that a "no fly zone" over Syria is anythng but war against the Syrian government.  There would be massive movement of air assets to Turkey, Israel and Jordan.  There would be sufficient air to air combat to destroy the Syrian Air Force.  There would be Search Air Rescue operations in Syria for downed air crew.  And at the end there would be a Saudi satellite jihadi state in Syria.  We should be trusting about this?

- Iraq.  Civil War on sectarian lines has begun again in Iraq.   We were told that we had done a good thing in Iraq.  GW Bush still says we did.  What good did we do?  We replaced one dictator with someone who is rapidly becoming another.  The government of Iraq is at war with the Sunni Arab population.  Is that not clear?

- Afghanistan.  Is it not clear that our effort to transform Afghanustan has failed?  Is it not clear that we should leave as soon as possible and stop throwng good money and people after bad and foolish efforts?

-The Sequester.  In the gun fight in the senate, the Obama Administration used every trick of propaganda and tear jerking to try to get its way.  All those efforts failed, failed miserably.  Now the same techique is being used to try to influence the American people to force the Congress to adopt Obama's budget.  IMO sequester cuts are being structured to cause maximum pain and inconvenenience to the general public.  White House tours are cut.  National monuments are closed.  Air traffic controllers are laid off so as to cause delays in air traffic with travelers waiting hours in aircraft for take offs.  At the same time, major defense contracters report no change in their bottom line.  that will probably change but for now...

Should we be trusting?  pl 

Syria, the Levant, and the Real Domino Effect

*

Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

 

As the Syrian Civil War continues into its third year, there are several potential outcomes that we need to look out for and be concerned with.  These are not just limited to Syria, but to the entire Levant, and even to Iran.  So lets run the board in order:

Syria

There are really two key potential outcomes and one sequel for Syria itself: stalemate driven insurgency, the fall of the Assads leading to a Sunni majority takeover, and the withdrawl of the Alawites to Latakia.

It is, in some respects, both surprising and not surprising that the Assad government has held on for as long as it has.  In many ways the Syrian Civil War is both an Assad and Alawite existential fight. which partially explains just how hard the government has responded and how far it is willing to go to survive.  One of the two most likely outcomes to the dispute is that the government is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to completely put down the rebellion and that the rebellion is not strong enough to overthrow the government, but just strong enough to survive.  If this happens, then we will see a classic insurgency along the lines of what the Philippines has endured with the Moros on Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago and similar to what Columbia has faced with the FARC.  In this situation Syria essentially gets carved up into two or more statelets - with government control in some areas and rebel control in others. 

The second potential outcome is that the Assad government does fall and the Sunni majority, or some faction of it takes over.  And it is this latter concept of faction that is important.  There is clearly no good cohesion among the rebel groups, both the domestic Syrian and the foreign fighters/jihadis, as well as between them.  While it may ultimately be a good thing for the region if Assad goes, it will not be a simple transition.  The various factions are likely to try to consolidate power, claim and then establish legitimacy, and will come to blows with each other over who will take control.  This possible outcome has the potential to turn into a Syrian version of the Thirty Years War, where different factions try to and/or actually seize power, seek to consolidate, face challenges to their legitimacy, and then the cycle of violent succession starts all over again.  This would, unlike the actual Thirty Years War, not end in the creation of a secular state, as the Syrian Sunni majority is conservative and devout even though it is not Salafist.  So do not expect a secular Sunni majority Syria to emerge.

In both of these two potential outcomes their is a sequel: the fallback of the Alawites, with or without the Assads, to their traditional lands in Latakia.  Latakia is the mountainous strip of Syria below Turkey on the coast of the Mediterranean.  While it is not completely fortifiable, it is certainly good ground - to paraphrase MG Buford - for digging in and trying to make a stand.  Not only would this prolong the dispute, but it would complicate Syria's claims to their portions of the recently discovered Leviathan petroleum and natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean.

Rebel Syrian Mortars fire on Damascus University

"Mortar fire has hit the University of Damascus, killing 15 students, Syrian state media say. Officials blamed rebels for the attack, saying a number of people had also been injured. It said the mortars had hit the university's faculty of architecture. The Syrian capital is in the grip of heavy fighting between government and rebel forces, who have recently intensified the use of mortars in the city, correspondents say"  BBC

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This is the second time that rebel mortar fire has struck the center of Damascus.  In this case the bombardment killed a number students.

The MSM in the US is uninterested.  Given that it is the policy of the United States to destroy the present Syrian government and replace it with one desired by the islamists in the ME; Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc., this is not surprising.

In any event the BHO administration has influenced the media to support its campaign for gun safety, gay parity, etc.  These priorities serve to focus attention away from th oming Islamist government in Syria.  pl

Syria Mortars

Martin Bashir and O'Hanlon

These two geniuses today assured each other on TV that US intervention in Syria is necessary and will be relatively painless.  Bashir, the lefty transplant from the UK, is for anything the MSNBC propaganda machine is for and O'Hanlon, the former budget analyst, who is now at Brookings were quite reassuring in their "sheep petting" mode before the slaughter begins.

O'Hanlon did say that there is a substantial chance that Islamist fanatics would rule Syria after the Baath, but, no matter, he is still for arming the rebels.

Bashir does not seem to have noticed that MSNBC produced and is still showing a documentary on the way the Bush Administration lied the US into war with Iraq.  Now he is helping to do the same.  pl

 http://www.thenation.com/blog/173484/reviewing-weeks-mea-culpas-iraq-good-bad-and-ugly#

 

The US is helping build an Islamic Emirate in Syria

There are now an estimated 80,000 Syrian Islamist fighters engaged in battle, as well as approximately 18,000 foreign Islamist militiamen, according to sources. This includes some 2,000 fighters who are members of the Uighur ethnic group, a Muslim minority of Turkic heritage who live mostly in China. The Nusra Front, along with several other Islamist groups, have designs on turning post-revolution Syria into an Islamic caliphate. Fadel al-Salim, a lawyer who is close to the Nusra Front, told The Daily Star: “We are working to re-establish the Islamic caliphate in Syria, and we have informed [Syrian National Council head] Moaz al-Khatib that we will not accept the building of a civil state in Syria. We control the ground and will rule by Islamic law.” Daily Star

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An interesting article and fairly accurate except that it continues the MSM and neocon line that the revolt in Syria was secular in origin and that there are large parts of the rebel movement that are not under effective Islamist control.  In the case of the media, these ideas are based in the "Iraq Syndrome" (appalling ignorance and acceptance of partisan propaganda).  And then, there are, of course the neocon chickenhawk journalists who are eager for another US war in the Middle East. 

Lurking in the article are a couple of unfortunate truths:

- American government personnel are training Islamist fighters in Jordan and possibly Turkey.

- American government liaison people are mouthing the line that there are good islamists and then there are bad Islamists.  We have been doing that kind of thing for a decade.  Egypt seems to have taught us nothing.  Lang's Postulate - "Islamist governments ALWAYS want just two things.  These are attainment and retention of absolute power, and creations of a sharia law state."

The bottom line is that the US is now participating in the creation of a sharia law state in Syria,  pl 

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Mar-19/210649-rival-islamists-loom-large-over-syria.ashx#axzz2O5NOvvxX 

 

"Hundreds of foreign jihadists leave Syria amid intensive clashes" Xinhua

 

"Hundreds of foreign jihadist fighters joining the battles against the Syrian troops were seen leaving Syria on Tuesday through borders with neighboring Turkey, the opposition Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. The reason behind the withdrawal is still vague, said the Observatory, citing one fighter as saying that his comrades "have been pulled out of Syria to join jihadists in Mali." The Observatory said the fighters pulled out from Syria's northwestern province of Idlib, a main hotspot in Syria's long- standing conflict. The Syrian government has for long accused Turkey of making its lands as routes for the foreign radical fighters in order to fight against the Syrian administration. "  Xinhua

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I picked this up in a comment by TTG yesterday.  What is going on here, if anything?  If this were true it would be bad news for the rebels in Syria.  On the other hand, if these fellows want to go fight the French Army and Air Force in northern Mali,  they will get a warm reception.  pl 

 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-02/26/c_124391005.htm

"Poor John Kerry" and the Syrian rebels

"Poor John Kerry. On his first foreign trip in his new job, the US secretary of state – and his boss – have been given a sharp slap in the face. A mission to Europe and the Middle East, which his officials declared would be for "listening" to ideas on what to do about Syria, has turned into a humiliating effort at damage limitation. The western-sponsored opposition grouping, the Syrian National Coalition, has rejected a meeting with Kerry that was due in Rome on Thursday. It accuses the US and its allies of being complicit in the destruction of Syria by not intervening militarily, either by arming the rebels or by direct intervention as in Libya. Not since Binyamin Netanyahu's brutal refusal to stop Israel's illegal settlement expansion around East Jerusalem has the Obama administration met such defiance from alleged friends. Israel depends heavily on US weaponry, cash and diplomatic support, but as clients go it is a giant compared to the deeply fragmented group of exiles who form the SNC. "  The Guardian

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IMO Kerry is one of the Washington's great phonies.  A mediocre thinker who made his way in Washington by riding first on his phony reputation as a hero of the war in Vietnam who then courageously defied the establishment and attacked US forces as war criminals.  How brave that was!   How persecuted he was for his principled stand against "US imperialism."  After marrynig his friend's widow he has had a great "run" in Washington pontificating from the comfort of a senate seat where he did not have to do anything or take responsibility for anything.  Oh, yes, I know all about his three Silver Stars and how he got them.  Now, his situation is different.  The "buck" stops with him and Obama.

The Syrian rebels are dominated by AQ people.  Many of the others in the SNA are Islamist jihadis of their own "branding."  The Saudis have announced that they are increasing the level of their support to the "freedom fighters" in Syria.  What sort of "freedom" do you think the rebels desire in Syria?  IMO it is the freedom to do what Saudi Arabia tells them to do.

Now the rebels have thumbed their noses at Kerry and Obama.  They are not interested in a compromise with the Assad secular state.  I ask you, as they would, how could they compromise when they are on "a mission from God?"  Oh, right, that was the "Blues Brothers."

I predict that Kerry will find that he can nothing with "diplomacy" in this crisis and then, despairing and fearful for his reputation he will take up the neocon banner along with McCain and Graham.

He will end by recommending direct military support for the rebels.  pl  

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/feb/25/syria-john-kerry-problem

"If Israel strikes Syria again, all bets are off" The Telegraph

"Israel’s policy towards Syria has, for two years, consisted of keeping its distance and sending warnings to Assad. As the Syrian state weakens and, at the same time, it has less and less to lose, Israel will find it increasingly difficult to insulate itself from events next door. If air strikes recur, this policy is going to fall apart. "  The Telegrapf

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The Syrian and Iranians lack any real retaliatory means against Israel as yet.  The real danger for Israel is that Hizbullah might decide to unleash its rocket and missile fire into northern Israel.  pl  

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/shashankjoshi/100201153/if-israel-strikes-syria-again-all-bets-are-off/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Armed_strength

The Assad government is not "falling."

"... misperception of the reality on the ground in Syria is fuelled in part by propaganda, but more especially by inaccurate and misleading reporting by the media where bias towards the rebels and against the government is unsurpassed since the height of the Cold War. Exaggerated notions are given of rebel strength and popularity. The Syrian government is partially responsible for this. By excluding all but a few foreign journalists, the regime has created a vacuum of information that is naturally filled by its enemies. In the event, a basically false and propagandistic account of events in Syria has been created by a foreign media credulous in using pro-opposition sources as if they were objective reporting. "  Patrick Cockburn in "The Independent"

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Yes, the demise of the Syrian government exists mainly in the "minds" of a couple of vendu think-tank analysts in Washington, the corporate media bandwagon, and the enfants terribles Wilsonians now riding high in the Obama Administration.  The attempt is being made to simply BS Assad out of power.  Obama is now functioning fully as the reincarnated Lincoln and sees himsef as "clothed in a great power."  Well, pilgrim, he has placed the US in the position of an alliance with an AQ affiliate (al-nusra).  The Syrians that he recognised as government are demanding that he stop condemning their AQ ally and are coming to Washington to tell him and the Wilsonians that he must de-list al-nusra as a terrorist group. 

Group Think and the desire to be loved by colleagues and the powerful account for a lot of the intellectual irresponsibility on display but it is also the fact that many of those "running their mouths" over Syria are simply ignorant, callow creatures created by ten years of war and the super-abundance of government money that allowed the hiring of the pitifully under experienced.

The only real question in my mind is whether or not Syria actually wasted a few SSMs last week.  Let's see some evidence, some wreckage, statements by Clapper about heat signatures at launch, something.

The civil war appears to be a stalemate.  Having painted himself into a corner BHO will eventually have to opt for intervention of some kind.  pl  

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/syria-the-descent-into-holy-war-8420309.html

"careless use of language" in re Syria - Walt

 
 

"What worries me, of course, is that careless use of language will convince people that the war is rising rapidly up some sort of “escalation ladder” and strengthen the chorus of voices demanding that the United States get more heavily involved. Reasonable people can disagree about that point, but the mere fact that Assad has now used Scuds is largely irrelevant. This decision may be a sign of growing desperation on his part; if so, I hope that some creative diplomacy can convince him to blow town before the entire country is destroyed. But unless he puts chemical warheads on top of them or starts attacking a new category of targets, the fact that Scuds are involved is not in fact very significant."  Walt in FP

 ----------------------------------------

Walt is correct.  Is the Syrian government actually firing these enormously expensive and not very accurate weapons systems at small groups of guerrillas?  If they are, then the decision to do so is incredibly stupid, but it is not an "escalation" of the war.  Air weapons already in use in the civil war are more effective as are the vehicle bombs used by the rebels.  SCUDs are nuclear weapons delivery systems.  That is why they don't need to be extremely accurate.  Syria has no nuclear weapons and never  did have any or any real propects of having any.

Michael Gordon's by-line should tell us what this is all about.  Maybe he can find a WMD factory somewhere in Syria as he and Judy Miller did in Iraq.  "All the news that's fit to print."  pl  

Data Call: SCUD firings

Do we actually know that Syria has fired SCUDS at the rebels?  What are the citations and what is the evidence?  It is very convenient that Syria supposedly fired SCUDS (ballistic missiles) at the rebels AFTER Turkey asked for NATO owned Patriot anti-ballistic missiles.  pl                            

The SCUD "onslaught" and the countdown to war.

"The Australian" wrote today that the thingies in this picture are SCUDS.  The newspaper writes that these "SCUDS" are being fired at rebels in northern Syria.  These are not SCUDS.

The real SCUD in its various models has a significant CEP and conventional warheads no bigger than aerial bombs that can be carried on the aircraft that Syria possesses, but "desperation" is said to be driving Assad to use these against an enemy who has no anti-aircraft capability except heavy machine guns and MANPADS.

This is an actual SCUD on a TEL  (Look it up)  Perhaps the first picture shows baby SCUDS?

Tonight the Honorable Fred Hof (Paul Bremer in waiting?) and Murhaf Jouejati (resident Syrian rebel at NDU?) beat the war drums on the Newshour.  Gwen Ifill did her best to inject some note of realism into the discussion, but to little avail.

The propaganda preparation of the American people for another military adventure is now approaching a climax.  US recognition of the rebel coalition sets the stage for legal intervention.

Shall we start a war "pool" as to the date?  pl  

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/video/ 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/assad-escalates-fight-with-scud-missiles/story-fnb64oi6-1226536017566

Israel worried about AQ, not Assad

 
 

" Syrian rebels backed by radical Islamists captured a northern regimental command center of President Bashar al-Assad's army, activists said on Sunday, as Russia dismissed speculation that it is preparing for its ally's possible exit from power."  Reuters

-----------------------------------------

I recently spoke to a friend who is an Israeli consultant to the IDF General Staff.  He says that Israel's policy with regard to the fate of the Assad government is "paralysed."

IMO, it is in this position because Israel's interests conflict in the matter.On the one hand, Israel has pushed for many years for the removal of Bashar Assad on the general principle that he is what they call "a near enemy."  On that basis they encouraged the Bush and Obama administrations to have nothing to do with him in spite of his repeated efforts to start negotiations with Washington over improved relations.  On the other hand, the rebel forces in Syria are increasingly dominated by jihadists.  This is true both of the foreign AQ associated groups who do much of the fighting, and the supposedly secular FSA.  In the case of the FSA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and private Islamists "funnel" money to the FSA through people farther down the chain of command than the uniformed "colonels" who appear in Western media.  Israel understands that in a post-Assad Syria the fiercest will prevail in the struggle for political control.

On FNS today the Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, declined to endorse, Mike Wallace's suggestion that Assad has been preparing to use chemical weaponry in the civil war.  He said "we are not sure about the truth of these reports" or something to that effect.  Instead he stated that what worries Israel is the possibility that Assad's government might lose control of chemical weapons and they could end up in jihadi or Hizbullah hands.

Wallace looked crestfallen and surprised.  It seemed that Wallace actually believes the manufactured meme about Assad and chemical warfare.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/09/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121209

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/09/us-syria-crisis-israel-chemicalweapons-idUSBRE8B805Z20121209

 

HARPER: SYRIA IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN

For the past week, the Obama Administration, joined by the entire neocon and Israeli Lobby apparatus has been engaged in an information warfare campaign to pave the way for the final overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria.  The centerpiece of the campaign is the claim that Syrian military units are prepared to launch chemical weapons attacks against their own population, and possibly against Turkey, a NATO country.  The North Atlantic Council, the policy-making body of NATO, has approved the rush deployment of Patriot missile batteries to southern Turkey to protect against the so-called Syrian chemical weapons attacks.  Such outright propaganda outfits as Israel’s DEBKA, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), and Atlantic magazine’s resident IDF voice, Jeffrey Goldberg, are all putting out claims that the Syrian Air Force has already assembled sarin gas weapons and armed fighter planes to launch attacks at any moment.

Has Obama decided on war in Syria?

Today's Washington Post appears to be temporarily unaccessable on line.  It contains "above the line" a feature story that continues the propaganda campaign in the media apparently designed to create public belief in the imminent collapse of the Syrian government and/or the imminent employment of Sarin or some other noxious substance by the Syrian government.

1 - The same two propagandists from WINEP and ISW are quoted as the main sources of this article as in so many other propaganda pieces on this theme and subject.  These two fellows have no sources of information that they will admit to other than rebel "news" releases.  The level of enthusiasm for this information campaign is so high in the idiot media that these two "experts'" opinions are now quoted as evidence.

2 - Both the president of the United States and the Secretary of State have taken to making speeches threatening Syria with unspecified "consequences" if chemical weapons are employed in the civil war.  Syria states that it will not do so.

3- It seems that the United States will soon recognize a coalition of rebel groups as the government of Syria in spite of the presence in that coalition of AQ related groups who are self-declared enemies of the United States.

4- It is the policy of the United States to bring about complete governmental change in Syria.  There is no UN sanction for such a policy.

It appears that the Obama Administration has taken upon itself the right to determine the outcome of the civil war in Syria.  The ongoing and emerging disaster in Egypt is evidently not a deterrant to "king making" in Syria.  pl

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War

More Logrolling on Syria from the Washington Poat

"None of the battles alone represented the kind of decisive military victory that the rebels need if they are to claim control of an entire city or province and prod the international community for greater demonstrated the capacity to capture any of the country’s major cities, and whether they will ever be in support. The rebels, most of them grouped loosely under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, have not a position to dislodge the regime from the heavily guarded capital without help is in question." Liz Sly

------------------------------------------------------

It should be added that the menagerie of rebel groups has not been able to hold ANY ground at all against government forces when they wish to retake it.   It seems Sly knows which way the wind blows at the Post.   It is well established that that the editorial board of the Washington Post is in thrall to the neocons and the Wilsonians.  Now, it appears that front page "news" is also to be the instrument of interventionist propaganda that the rest of the paper has been.

I make it a practise at Washington meetings on Syria to challenge the data.  I do this because there is no accurate data except that held under secrecy by the US Government.  Such challenges are protested as unfair because there is much "data" broadcast by the rebel propaganda machine.  This propaganda is inherently unreliable.

Nevertheless, we now have two Washington analysts, Jeffrey White of WINEP and Joseph Holliday of the Institute for the Study of Warfare (a Kagan/Nuland dominated thinktank) proclaiming that the forces of the Syrian government are in decline.   Thus far they say that their conclusion is based on rebel "data."  White is a retired DIA executive and analyst and Holliday is a military reservist who spent some time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I suppose he is a captain or a major in the reserves.  Are they really basing their estimate of the Syrian civil war's "direction" on BS from the rebels or do they have better information than that?  Surely they are not feeding us more BS from the IDF.  If not that, then what?

One would think that the rise of pharaonic rule tinged green in Egypt would give pause to the naive and the cynical.  Surely the analogy to Syria is clear.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-making-advances/2012/11/25/1cfcc8cc-372c-11e2-9258-ac7c78d5c680_story.html?hpid=z3

 

 

The US Sponsored New Syrian Government. - Clifford Kiracofe

Washington's Soviet style "provisional government in exile": "The leaders of the old Syrian National Council, which was largely dominated by the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, had strenuously objected to having their outfit unceremoniously wound up. After days of wrangling in a luxury hotel in the Qatari capital of Doha, they were brought on board, having been promised 40 percent of the seats in the leadership.  In the end, while Hillary Clinton made much of putting together a more “representative” body to serve as a front for the US-backed war for regime-change, the new coalition amounts to the same gang of thieves, intelligence agents and Islamist politicians, refurbished with a bit of “diversity.” Seats in the leadership have been reserved for minorities, including the Alawite sect, which are overwhelmingly hostile to the so-called “rebels,” and for women.  Heading the body is a Sunni cleric, Sheikh Ahmad Mouaz al Khatib. Its vice presidents include Riad Seif, the Syrian businessman and confidante of the US embassy in Damascus who served as Washington’s standard bearer for a new “united” opposition. Its general secretary is Moustafa al-Sabagh, who was chairman of the Syrian Business Forum, a front of exiled Syrian capitalists that offered to join Qatar and Saudi Arabia in paying salaries to the Syrian “rebels.” There is no indication that any of these figures have any real connection with, much less control over, the sectarian militias, Islamic jihadists, foreign fighters and suicide bombers who are playing the principal role in waging a civil war for regime-change inside Syria. There is even less evidence that any of them have a base of popular support inside the country.  Nonetheless, they are being sent on tour to seek recognition from the Arab League and the “Friends of Syria,” comprised of Washington and its allies, as the first step toward turning the coalition into a provisional government to be installed on “liberated” Syrian soil.  Among the “principles” agreed to by those forming the new coalition is a commitment “not to take part in any dialogue or negotiations with the regime” in Damascus. This represents a direct US repudiation of the UN-brokered agreement reached in Geneva last June in which Washington committed itself to supporting “peaceful dialogue and negotiation” to bring an end to the civil war in Syria and a transition to a new constitutional order. ..."

http://syria360.wordpress.com/2012/11/13/one-week-after-us-elections-war-threats-against-syria-mount/

Any further data on the various persons in this new grouping?  Clifford Kiracofe

Syria, France, Gaza, Natanyahu and Obama

"After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead."  Jeffrey White

----------------------------------------------

"... while regime forces are stretched thin,"

White's conclusion that the Syrian Army is "stretched thin" is based on a belief that most of the Syrian Army is unreliable and cannot be used in counter-guerrilla operations.   If that is true and if only 30% or 50% of the Army is usable, then the failure of the government to mount a continuous series of operations to clear the north of rebel forces is understandable.  White does not make it clear what the basis is for his judgment that large parts of the Syrian Army are unreliable.  He is a meticulous analyst and i am sure that he has some solid basis for this judgment.  There are parts of various governments who have the means to know exactly which Syrian units have been employed and with what frequency.  Is this article a reflection of that kind of certain knowledge? 

White also opines that foreign assistance to the rebels would have a significant effect on the outcome of the war.  Well, of course it would.  The Syrian forces are very dependant on their equipment;  aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery pieces to be exact.  Training and equipping of the rebels with weaponry that is effective against these systems  would be very effective and possibly decisive.  The training could be done in Turkey or Jordan.  France has recognised the rebel kaleidoscope of groups as the government of Syria.  Is this a prelude to French action in this area?  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-internal-war-turns-against-the-regime

**********************************

"The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed Obama and is forcing a reset of their mutual equations even before the US president gets started on his second term in the White House.  Asia Times

-----------------------------------------

Yes, the Gaza attacks are about Obama and not about HAMAS.  Natanyahu is demonstrating to BHO that he can do as he pleases and that the Congress will back him and not the president of the United States.  It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything.  pl  

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak03.html

 

More "freedom fighter" war crimes in Syria

"The video, which could not be authenticated independently, appeared to have been made in Saraqeb, a town in Idlib Province in northern Syria that has been the scene of particularly brutal fighting between rebels and loyalists in the 20-month-old conflict. In the video, 10 prisoners are shown being forced by their captors to lie next to or atop one another in what remained of a largely destroyed structure that may have been a military checkpoint. The antigovernment fighters, whose precise identities or affiliations were not clear, yell “Allah Akhbar!” or “God is great!” as they kick and herd the prisoners into a pile. Then they open fire. "  NY Times

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Savages.  Savages.  pl

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/56977/World/Region/Syria-rebels-tolerate-extremists-despite-Wests-fea.aspx

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/world/middleeast/un-says-syria-execution-video-shows-apparent-war-crime.html?_r=0

"What Is Going On in Syria?" by Father Paul Stenhouse

"Unless defections from the 600,000-strong, predominantly Sunni, Syrian army reach significant proportions—which is unlikely—the rebels seem to be pinning their hopes of toppling the regime on enticing foreign powers to enter the conflict on the ground and in the air. In other words, replaying the Libyan scenario. But—as many are starting to realise—Syria is not Libya; nor is it Iraq. Assad is not friendless as was Gaddafi. No one claims that the Assad regime as it stands is a democracy, but it was and is moving towards one. On the other hand, the much publicised efforts its opponents inside and outside Syria are making to demonise Assad and his government have to be seen for what they are: exaggerated and often spurious claims aimed at drawing ill-informed foreign powers into a conflict that will probably draw the whole region into a wider and bloodier one." Father Paul Stenhouse

----------------------------------------------------

You heard it here first.  pl

http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2012/4/what-is-going-on-in-syria 

 

No limits on building in E. Jerusalem - Reuters

"Israel's foreign minister on Saturday dismissed criticism by the European Union of Jewish settlement on occupied land the Palestinians seek for a state, advising the 27-nation bloc to attend to its own problems instead."  Reuters

................................................

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied a newspaper report on Friday that said he had agreed in principle to hand back land annexed from Syria as part of secret U.S.-mediated peace talks that broke off last year."  Reuters

------------------------------------

Israel bestrides the world.  Anyone who thinks that the present Israeli government is in the least interested in an equitable settlement with the Palestinians has only to contemplate these statements.  What is revealed here is a crafty use of half truth and deception used for tactical reasons to obtain the long term goal of unlimited Israeli power in the ME.

Is it part of the agenda that Israel should continue to control the US political process?  Answer that for yourself.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/20/us-palestinians-israel-eu-idUSBRE89J08S20121020

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-israel-syria-idUSBRE89B0O320121012

 

"Holy Warriors" by Aron Lund

"This climate of sectarian polarization has triggered a slow but certain "Islamization" of the armed movement. Ultraconservative Salafi-jihadis, in particular, have made rapid inroads among the rebels. They tend to organize in small, close-knit groups, but their ideological impact is visible across the rebel movement, with other factions increasingly adopting their religious discourse. Even the most well-known insurgent alliance, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loose umbrella term used by several inter-related insurgent networks, is hardly the secular movement it is portrayed as in the West, where it is represented by a small coterie of exiled military defectors. In Syria, the main body of FSA networks has come to resemble a Sunni sectarian movement, which is increasingly influenced by Islamist ideology."  Aron Lund in FP

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The revolt in Syria has ALWAYS BEEN a Sunni sectarian rebellion against a government that represents the interests of Syrians who wish to live in a multi-confessional country that is essentially secular.  pl  

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/10/15/holy_warriors?page=full

Rice reveals that Hizbullah helps Syria

 

"U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told the U.N. Security Council's monthly meeting on the Mideast that Hezbollah leaders are also continuing to plot new measures with Iran to keep Assad in power.       

Rice's comments — and those of Israel's U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor — gave the clearest indication that Hezbollah, which fought a war against Israel in 2006 and is a major political and military force in Lebanon, is sending an increasing number of fighters to help the embattled Syrian regime.       

Syria's ruling Alawite minority is an offshoot of Shiite Islam and has had close ties to Iran and Hezbollah which are Shiite-dominated. Assad has long helped Iran aid Hezbollah and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, in destabilizing Lebanon and threatening Israel's security and U.S. interests in the Middle East. "  NY Times

-----------------------------------------

This is truly comic.  Susan "Meet the Press" Rice is still riding high.

Hizbullah is a major component of a stable government in Lebanon.  It was elected to the number of seats in parliament that give it that power a number of years ago and the political science seminar crowd that makes up the US foreign policy establishment has resolutely opposed the Lebanese government ever since.  BTW, when did Hizbullah last fire rockets or anything else into Israel?  If memory serves, it was in 2006.

In Syria the US seeks regime change without UN authority.   The allies of the US in this endeavor are; Turkey (Sunni ruled), Egypt (Sunni ruled), Saudi Arabia (Sunni ruled), Qatar (Sunni ruled) Al-Qa'ida (Sunni fanatics) and NATO.

On the other side, the government of Syria (Alawi, Druze, Shia, Sunni and Christian in orientation), Iran (Shia ruled), Iraq (Shia ruled) and now apparently Hizbullah (a Shia militia)

So, the US has become the ally of Al-Qa'ida and the Wahhabi Saudis against a multi-confessional government and its Shia allies.

How clever we are!  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/10/15/world/middleeast/ap-un-un-mideast.html?ref=world&_r=0

The Assad government is defending the minorities. - Clifford Kirakofe

Syria: "The departure of the Assad regime and a new government in Syria run by extremist Salafists, al-Qa'ida or the Muslim Brotherhood is a daunting prospect for the minorities, and for a majority of the Sunni population, who have flourished under the tolerance of the Alawite regime. The US State Department and the West generally are, oddly, not impressed by Melkite Greek Catholic Patriarch Gregorios III's statement that "there is more religious freedom and tolerance in Syria than in any other Arab country". Last week I interviewed Mother Agnes-Mariam de la Croix. A highly educated Carmelite nun, she has fled Syria under threat of abduction from her home, the sixth-century Monastery of St James the Mutilated. Her version of the truth about Syria is very different from the version we get from European and American leaders, and from al-Jazeera. According to Agnes-Mariam, the initial uprising was a benign protest against the monolithic and ideological Baathist regime of which, after almost 50 years, people had tired. The protest was helped by some of the very advantages that the regime had delivered, such as equality of religion and a high standard of education, particularly for women. However, the protest had hardly begun before it was hijacked by Islamist mercenaries and turned into violent jihad. This is only beginning to emerge now as people query the number of foreign fighters among the insurgents.

According to Agnes-Mariam, only about one in 50 is actually Syrian. The rest are jihadists from elsewhere in the Middle East and abroad, even from Australia. What is worse, many of these fighters have had support in money and arms and morale from the West. .... Agnes-Mariam and many other Syrians are warning the West against intervention, because the insurgency is now bent on a religious and cultural purge of Syria, and indeed the whole Middle East. Ironically, some of the Sunni Wahhabist ideologues were already ensconced and unwittingly protected by the regime, particularly within the secret service, to counteract American influence during the Iraq invasion. As Stenhouse says: "The Syrian (tolerant) model of an Arab society offends extremist and closed Muslim societies. It now seems to offend the USA and its allies. If they have their way, it will disappear along with the Assad regime.

That will be a sad day for the Middle East, and a worse one for the Western powers, who will have unleashed an uncertain future on millions of defenceless non-Muslims and non-extremist Muslims."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/christians-a-target-for-syrian-rebels-we-back/story-e6frg6z6-1226494303347

The mother superior of a 1500-year-old monastery in Syria warned yesterday during a visit to Australia that the uprising against Bashar al-Assad has been hijacked by foreign Islamist mercenaries, with strong support from Western countries. Mother Agnes-Mariam de la Croix was forced to flee to neighbouring Lebanon in June when she was warned of a plot to abduct her, after she revealed that about 80,000 Christians had been "cleared" by rebel forces from their homes in Homs province. She described on the website of the Greek-Melkite Catholic monastery of St James, the church she rebuilt 18 years ago after discovering it in ruins, how Islamist rebels had gathered Christian and Alawi hostages in a building in Khalidiya in Homs. Then they blew it up with dynamite and attributed the act to the regular army. .... Slowly these groups became identified: some are recruited by and affiliated with al-Qa'ida, some have a Muslim Brotherhood background, some are attached to other Islamist factions. Only about one in 20 of these fighters is Syrian, she said. The rest come from places ranging from Britain to Pakistan, from Chechnya to North Africa. "Many have fought in Iraq, some also in Afghanistan," Mother Agnes-Mariam said. "Now their cause is being recycled to kill Syrians." The two million Christians in Syria - which contains the world's first church - "are sharing Syria's fate", she said. "But as a minority, they are more vulnerable. They have no army. They are caught, like the filling in a sandwich." Her own community of nuns at St James has been mostly trapped in the monastery for 18 months. In the beginning, she said, the uprising embraced values including freedom and democracy. "But it steadily became a violent Islamist expression against a liberal secular society." She described "a hidden will to empty the Middle East of its Christian presence. We don't know why. We have always been the peaceful catalyst bringing diverse communities together." ...

 http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/christians-emptied-from-middle-east/story-e6frg6so-1226489418086?sv=c36cd3446fc41dadbcfcf53e6ad0b188

So just what "values" do Romney and Obama and the pro-Israel news media and pro-Israel Lobby think we share with the jihadis?  Clifford Kirakofe

Christians in Syria

"Christians in Syria make up about 10% of the population.^[1] The country's largest Christian denomination is an Eastern Orthodox Church of Antioch (officially known as the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of Antioch and All the East),^[2][3][4] closely followed by a Uniate^[5] Melkite Greek Catholic Church, and then by an Oriental Syriac Orthodox Church; there are also a minority of Protestants. The city of Aleppo is believed to have the largest number of Christians in Syria.

The President of Syria has to be a Muslim, as a result of popular demand at the time the constitution was written. However, Syria does not profess a state religion, and does not officially favor any religion over another"  wiki

--------------------------------

A basis for discussion of the present crisis for Christians throughout the Islamic World.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_Syria

Martyrs Brigade in Syria has 120 mm. mortars

 
You can pick this thing up after you have fired, toss it in the back of a pick up truck and be far gone before the counter-battery fire arrives whether that counter-battery fire radar is the German "Cobra" or not.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1938_mortar 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyfpHrq8Bw8

"Turkey okays military force..." JP

"Turkey's parliament gave authorization on Thursday for military operations outside Turkish borders if the government deemed them necessary, a day after artillery shelling from Syria killed five civilians in a Turkish border town.

The government had sought parliamentary approval to send soldiers to foreign countries in a memorandum which said that "aggressive action" by Syria's armed forces against Turkish territory posed a serious threat to national security."  JP

-------------------------------

Whoa!  Is the Syrian Army really this stupid?  NATO is a defensive alliance in which an attack on one country is an attack on all.  The NATO political headquarters in Brussels made it clear in respnse to Turkey's request for a council meeting that the alliance will back Turkey in any such confrontation.  Washington has also made its support of that resolve clear.

Further attacks on Turkish territory or citizens would provide a legal basis for intervention by NATO members in the Syrian civil war.

Get it?  pl

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286654

"Syrian Jihadism" Aron Lund

 

 

"The Syrian civil war is a sectarian conflict – among other things. It is also a conflict along socio-economic and urban-rural lines, a classic countryside jacquerie against an exploitative central government, albeit internally divided by the country’s religious divisions, which cut across other patterns of identity and loyalty. Then there is a political dimension to the struggle, with Bashar el-Assad’s loyalists battling to preserve the current power structure against demands for democratization and economic redistribution. And, last but not least, the conflict has transformed into a proxy war for influence among several regional and international powers, adding another layer of complexity. "  Aron Lund

----------------------------------------

This is a thorough Order of Battle study on the present civil war in Syria.  pl 

http://www.ui.se/Files.aspx?f_id=77409

According to HRW, the Syrian rebels are torturers

"Syrian rebels have committed war crimes including torture and killing of detainees, Human Rights Watch said Monday, calling on countries which support those fighting Bashar Assad's rule to press them to respect humanitarian law. The New York-based group said it had documented more than 12 cases where rebel fighters had killed their captured opponents, while at least six detainees interviewed by HRW said they had been tortured and mistreated."  Daily Star

-----------------------------------------

Can this be?  Are not the rebels in Syria an army of angels sent from on high?  No?  They are an army of torturer angels?  Well, then, why are we seeking to help an army of torturing angels bring down a secular multi-confessional government?  Why are we doing that? Is it because the grad school bull session crowd now running US foreign policy thinks that revolt must be a good thing?  Surely, it is not that?  pl 

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Sep-17/188232-rights-group-syrian-rebels-torturing-detainees.ashx#axzz26jA8WQWm

More Jingoism at the Washington Post

"If the fighting continues to spread, important U.S. allies, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, could be destabilized; both are indirectly backing Sunni fighters. The fragile political order in Iraq, bought with thousands of American lives, could collapse. Al-Qaeda could acquire new recruits and sanctuaries across the region. The best means of preventing this, as State Department Middle East experts have been pointing out for months, is to accelerate the downfall of the Syrian regime. There are several ways of doing that, short of direct military intervention: materiel aid to the rebels is one. Now that its refusal to take that step has led to the very consequences it warned of, the administration would be wise to reconsider. "  Washpost editorial

------------------------------

The Washington Poat and New York Times fed us this kind of jingoistic nonsense before we invaded Iraq.  The claim was made that Iraq = Nazi Germany.  Today Kurdistan - Tomorrow the Sudetenland!  What rot!  and they are doing the same thing again.  In those days Judy Miller and Michael Gordon led the charge in NY but the Washington Post was not far behind.  Today ,the neocon Post editorial page apparently cannot wait for the day when American infantry will bleed and die in Syria.  The unholy trio of McCain, Graham and "Deputy Dog" Lieberman seem eager supporters of that aspiration.

The Post admits that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are material supporters of the Sunni jihadi insurgents in Syria.  Turkey and Saudi Arabia are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim in their populations.  The Post nevertheless thinks that Turkey and Saudi Arabia will be de-stabilized if fighting continues.  Well. if that is so, let Saudi Arabia and Turkey stop supporting the insurgency.

Sunni Turkey has announced that it will give permanent sanctuary to al-Hashemi, the condemned Sunni VP of Iraq.  What a surprise! Not!  I did not think for a moment that the pious Sunni Turk, Erdogan, would deliver a kinsman of the prophet (Al Hashimi) to die on a scaffold in Baghdad at the hands of the Shia.

If there are any people left in the State Department who have a clue about the Middle East they should  all hold up their hands!   Oh!  There's one over there!  pl 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-stands-by-as-syrias-violence-spreads/2012/09/10/e8c36246-fb71-11e1-b153-218509a954e1_story.html

"Video shows 20 Syrian soldiers believed executed" Reuters

"Amateur video posted on You Tube on Monday showed images of 20 dead Syrian soldiers, blindfolded and handcuffed, after they were apparently executed in the northern city of Aleppo. Two videos showed the dead men dressed in army fatigues and kneeling in a long line along a road with their bloodied heads lying on the pavement. It was not possible to verify the authenticity of the videos."  Reuters

-------------------------

True, not true, who knows?  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/us-syria-crisis-execution-idUSBRE8890V420120910

Jihadists join Aleppo fight, eye Islamic state, surgeon says - Reuters

"Foreign Islamists intent on turning Syria into an autocratic theocracy have swollen the ranks of rebels fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad and think they are waging a "holy war", a French surgeon who treated fighters in Aleppo has said. Jacques Beres, co-founder of medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres, returned from Syria on Friday evening after spending two weeks working clandestinely in a hospital in the besieged northern Syrian city. In an interview with Reuters in his central Paris apartment on Saturday, the 71-year-old said that contrary to his previous visits to Homs and Idlib earlier this year about 60 percent of those he had treated this time had been rebel fighters and that at least half of them had been non-Syrian. "It's really something strange to see. They are directly saying that they aren't interested in Bashar al-Assad's fall, but are thinking about how to take power afterwards and set up an Islamic state with sharia law to become part of the world Emirate," the doctor said."  Reuters

--------------------------------------------

You have to ask yourself  what the US thinks the purpose of its policy in Syria might be?  To wound Iran?  To accomplish that  goal the US is willing to help create a Sunni jihadi sharia law "emirate" where Syria once was?  Madness.  pl

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-crisis-jihadbre88708w-20120908,0,2535169.story

Analysts: Syrian army in no danger of collapsing from rebel assaults - McClatchy

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/06/166874/analysts-syrian-army-in-no-danger.html#storylink=cpy

"Though degraded by a war of attrition against increasingly capable guerrilla militias, the Syrian military remains a cohesive force capable of continuing its operations for the foreseeable future, according to independent military analysts. The assessment that the Syrian military remains a potent force contradicts months of suggestions by Obama administration officials that defections and the pace of the increasingly violent conflict is overstretching the military, a theme that’s been voiced repeatedly for months in official State Department briefings."  Enders

-----------------------------------

This piece requires no elaboration by me.  The picture is of a T-54 tank.  Far better to use these old tamks against guerrillas than the more modern T-72.  pl

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/06/166874/analysts-syrian-army-in-no-danger.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/09/06/166874/analysts-syrian-army-in-no-danger.html#storylink=cpy

 

Iran supplies Syria via Iraqi airspace. - The Pilot

 

"American senators visiting Iraq warned the Baghdad government Wednesday that it risked damaging relations with the U.S. if it is allowing Iran to fly over its airspace to deliver weapons to Syria. An Iraqi government spokesman responded by saying Iran has told Baghdad the flights to Syria are only delivering humanitarian aid. He said the onus is on the U.S. to offer up proof that Tehran is shipping weapons. Senator Joe Lieberman, an Independent from Connecticut, said Iraq's failure to stop the flights could threaten the long-term relationship with the U.S. as well as aid Iraq could receive as part of a 2008 strategic pact between the two nations. "Bottom line, this kind of problem with these Iranian overflights can make it more difficult to proceed with the Strategic Framework Agreement in the manner that the prime minister and we would like to see happen," Lieberman told reporters in Baghdad. "So I hope this is cleared up quickly." "  Pilotonline

----------------------------------------------------

So, "Deputy Dog" (Jon Stewart's pet name for him) "hopes this is cleared up quickly."  Do the fabulous threesome, (McCain, Lieberman and Graham) realize how foolish they look and how much they are being mocked by Maliki and Company?  Do they?  Have they no pride?  Have they no shame?  Perhaps they are taking lessons in foreign affairs from Bibi and the other Lieberman.  That pair have done so well with their BHO relationship.

Seriously, sort of,  IMO Iraq think the idea of a long term "strategic" relationssip with the USA to be a bad joke, a joke so bad that it cries out for mockery.

They are allowing the use of their airspace for re-supply?  Wait until they figure out a way to run convoys across northern Iraq to Syria.  The Syrian jihadi guerrillas should not prove an impenetrable obstacle to that.  And... the other end of that supply line can have a branch that runs to Russia...

Meanwhile, on HC's trip to China things did not go well.  The Chinese basically told her "NO!"  We run our policy about Syria, not you.  She would have been better off if she had gone to the convention.  pl  

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_IRAQ_US?SITE=VANOV&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-09-05-11-20-28

Syria scorns UN-brokered talks with rebels - CBC News

"There will be no dialogue with the opposition before the army crushes the rebels, the Syrian regime said Monday, the latest sign that President Bashar Assad is determined to solve the crisis on the battlefield even if many more of his people have to pay with their lives. "There will be no dialogue with the opposition prior to the Syrian army's imposition of security and stability in all parts of the country," Information Minister Omran al-Zoebi told reporters at a news conference in Damascus. "  CBC News

---------------------------------

Could this be any clearer?  Brahimi sould take his ego andgo  home to the Riviera.  pl 

The picture is of a Latin Christian school in Aleppo inth "bad old days' of Ottoman rule. 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/09/03/syria-bombing.html

"U.S. intervention in Syria appears unlikely, say officials" Washpost

"... the Obama administration is resisting scattered calls in Europe and from the Free Syrian Army rebels to provide weapons and to establish an internationally protected humanitarian corridor or a buffer zone for displaced Syrians inside their country. “The bottom line is that [such protected areas] would necessitate a no-fly zone,” a second administration official said. No humanitarian organization would enter Syria without guaranteed protection from air attacks and, the official said, “that would require taking out Syrian air defenses. This is a very slippery slope.” "  Washpost

-------------------------------

Who are these officials?  NSC staffers?  I think that the US  government will face a great crisis after the November election.  Will a vctorious BHO decide to deliver maximum lethal and non-lethat aid to the jihadi rebels?  Will Romney the First press BHO to do this in his remaining months in office?  You tell me.  pl

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-intervention-in-syria-appears-unlikely-say-officials/2012/09/02/c1cd4e9a-f2bb-11e1-a612-3cfc842a6d89_story.html

Another guerrilla triumph in Syria

"The explosion took place in Abu Rummaneh, a well-guarded upscale area in
central Damascus where the Ministry of Defense and other government buildings are located.

A truck bomb exploded in the same high-security zone on Aug. 15, injuring at
least three people. Four senior government officials also were killed in a bomb
blast in Damascus on July 18. "  Washpost

---------------------------------

(irony alert) These are some bad assed guerrillas.  They are getting their butts kicked all over the country.  Their sympathisers are being rooted out of sympathetic neighborhoods and then shot in the streets and still, they can infiltrate army headquarters in the capital and set off truck bombs.  I am impressed.

The "guerrillas" seem to have missed Assad again.  What a shame.  The timing would have been grand. I can see the scene on national TV with BHO on the stage at Charlotte to announce that once again a terrorist leader has been eliminated from the world, and this time by his own people.

I feel sure the jihadis will try again soon.  pl

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Sep-02/186423-syria-tv-terrorist-bombing-in-damascus-wounds-four.ashx#axzz25LJrtobw

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-bomb-regime-army-base-4-injured/2012/09/02/e48a86ec-f508-11e1-86a5-1f5431d87dfd_story.html

Syria air base attacks and the cyberwar against SANA

"In recent days, the rebels have reported downing several helicopters and at least two fighter aircraft involved in attacks against opposition fighters and civilians. While videos have been posted online and broadcast, the details have not been independently verified."  Businessweek

-------------------------------

I see four coffins.  How much damage did the jihadi attacks on an airbase really do?  We know nothing of that other than the statements of the jihadis.  pl

************************

"The Syrian Arab news agency SANA is hard to reach lately, obviously under DDoS-attacks by global enemies of free speech, just like Mein Parteibuch was shot down by the global arrogance forces warring against free speech, freedom and human dignity. To make important news messages from SANA available though SANA is under DDoS Mein Parteibuch will syndicate selected internationally important English language SANA news items. "  abovetopsecret

-----------------------------

There have been a series of cyberattacks on the website of the Syrian Arab New Agency (SANA)  Who could or would do that?  The jihadis?  Maybe.  The Israelis"  Possibly.  The US?  Most likely.  This is the age of info ops.  The US believes it can win wars by denying access to information.  It is the expressed policy of the US to bring down Assad's government in the foolish belief that this will undermine Iran.  I vote for the US as culprit.

Why am I still able to publish this blog?   It is because I am judged to be insignificant and ineffective.  pl

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-01/syrian-forces-clash-with-rebels-near-airbases-as-fighting-rages

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread860889/pg1

 

 

 

The Syrian rebels and the Christians

"Being a Christian in the Middle East carries special challenges. You are an identified minority. You are subject to special laws that limit your rights. Worse, during times of conflict or even times of peace, your community may be subject to intense discrimination and violence. It is not a comfortable path. It is a commitment based on deep faith and loyalty to the teachings of Jesus.

Politicians claim to follow Jesus but rarely walk the path. "  Michael Collins (sic)

http://agonist.org/michael_collins/20120827/what_happens_when_they_start_killing_christians

Syrian Shoot down, Taliban kill party goers. Cairo garbage

- The Syrian jihadi rebels say they shot down a government helicopter over Damascus .  They might as well take credit for this one.  The government has at least 175 more.  Wiki

- Taliban "party-poopers" beheaded 17 men gathered for traditional singing and dancing in Helmand Province where the marines have spent so much time on COIN in the last couple of years.  Taliban Islam does not tolerate such frivolity as music and dancing.  Hmmm.  Cotton Mather wasn't this much of a prude.

- Garbage in Cairo is collected by Coptic Christians who feed the edible parts to pigs.  President Mursi's relations with the whole Coptic "thing" is still rather indeterminate.  Last year htere was a Muslim inspired general round-up and wasted slaughter of the swine and as a result the Cairene population is faced with a crisis of garbage accumulation.

You couldn't make this stuff up if you were writing fiction nobody would believe it.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/afghan-officials-insurgents-behead-17-civilians-17084685

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-shoot-down-military-helicopter-over-damascus/2012/08/27/7a380314-f030-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/egypts-garbage-crisis-bedevils-morsi/2012/08/26/6fdfad1e-ec6a-11e1-866f-60a00f604425_story.html

 

 

"More than they can chew" Economist

"A MONTH after rebel forces launched a blazing attempt to capture Aleppo, Syria’s second city, they are starting to wilt. The regime claims to have routed them from their main stronghold in the Salaheddin district. Clashes continue in the southwest of the city and around the airport, but the best that rebel commanders can now hope to achieve is to draw the regime into a quagmire. Whole streets have been reduced to rubble in the country’s commercial hub of 2.5m people. This is hardly the outcome the rebels were looking for, but it is not surprising either. Commanders have long acknowledged that they find it difficult to hold cities. With the recapture in February of the Baba Amr district in Homs, Syria’s third city, the regime showed it has no qualms over using heavy weapons to kill as many as necessary to regain control. At the end of July, with the battle in Aleppo under way, it brought out fighter jets for the first time. With little more than harsh words to fear from the outside world, the regime keeps using ever more powerful weaponry. A bombing from the air in Azaz, north of Aleppo, on August 15th left scores dead. America tried to put an end to the escalation of force when President Barack Obama declared on August 20th that use of chemical weapons could trigger an American military intervention, not least to keep them out of the hands of third parties, including Islamist terror groups." Economist

----------------------------------

Looks like the economist can still think and analyze. The decision to engage decisively in cities was fatal.  Insurgencies begin in the coutryside.  The insurgents should have read their "Mao, Giap, Lawrence and Guevara."  Lesson 1 for the insurgents.  First control the rural population, then 2- using the "sea" of the people cut the communications between towns, 3- Isolate the government land and air forces in the bases.  4- Then seek battle with larger and larger government forces based on an experience of success.  Oh well, better luck next time.     pl

 

http://www.economist.com/node/21560919

Is there a US policy in the Islamic World?

I think that is a valid question:

- In Egypt we support consolidation of power by an obviously Muslim Brotherhood run government.  To that end, HC and her deputy, Bill Burns,  have traveled to Cairo to threaten and cajole the Egyptian military into accepting what the Egyptians know will become an Islamist state with all that promises for women, Christians, homosexuals, etc.

- In Afghanistan we are engaged in a very long, very costly war against an Islamist guerrilla army that has the support of many in that country.  It is claimed that the Afghan soldiers and police who are killing our men are merely "disaffected." Yes, but their disaffection is largely the result of their anti-kaffir xenophobia.  We are now in the process of abandoning the failed COIN strategy in favor of a CT based strategy that I advocated three years ago, but that was then.  This is now.  The time has probaby passed.

-In Iraq, we created a government that rejected any real strategic relationship with us and now conspires with Iran to halp Iran evade the sanctions regime.  But, we still say we love them.

- In Tunisia, the Islamist element in the new government is seeking to erase French culture in the country.  We look fondly upon them.

- In Yemen we directly assist the new Yemeni government in seeking the annhilation of the small Sunni Wahhabi insurgent movement.  In so doing we align ourselves with the Sunni majority of the former PDRY against the Fiver Shia population of the North who are thought to be somehow related to Iran.  They are not.

- Iran.  Well, I won't even try to deal with that here.  We await Israel's initiative.

- Saudi Arabia.  We await their desires as well.

- Syria.  We support a Sunni Wahhabi led, financed and armed insurgency against a government that has traditionally been hostile to Islamist groups.

What's the connecting thread here?

Don't embarrass yourself by saying oil and Israel.

"It is a tale told by an ifdiot."  pl