Sic Semper Tyrannis

Syria, the Levant, and the Real Domino Effect

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Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

 

As the Syrian Civil War continues into its third year, there are several potential outcomes that we need to look out for and be concerned with.  These are not just limited to Syria, but to the entire Levant, and even to Iran.  So lets run the board in order:

Syria

There are really two key potential outcomes and one sequel for Syria itself: stalemate driven insurgency, the fall of the Assads leading to a Sunni majority takeover, and the withdrawl of the Alawites to Latakia.

It is, in some respects, both surprising and not surprising that the Assad government has held on for as long as it has.  In many ways the Syrian Civil War is both an Assad and Alawite existential fight. which partially explains just how hard the government has responded and how far it is willing to go to survive.  One of the two most likely outcomes to the dispute is that the government is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to completely put down the rebellion and that the rebellion is not strong enough to overthrow the government, but just strong enough to survive.  If this happens, then we will see a classic insurgency along the lines of what the Philippines has endured with the Moros on Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago and similar to what Columbia has faced with the FARC.  In this situation Syria essentially gets carved up into two or more statelets - with government control in some areas and rebel control in others. 

The second potential outcome is that the Assad government does fall and the Sunni majority, or some faction of it takes over.  And it is this latter concept of faction that is important.  There is clearly no good cohesion among the rebel groups, both the domestic Syrian and the foreign fighters/jihadis, as well as between them.  While it may ultimately be a good thing for the region if Assad goes, it will not be a simple transition.  The various factions are likely to try to consolidate power, claim and then establish legitimacy, and will come to blows with each other over who will take control.  This possible outcome has the potential to turn into a Syrian version of the Thirty Years War, where different factions try to and/or actually seize power, seek to consolidate, face challenges to their legitimacy, and then the cycle of violent succession starts all over again.  This would, unlike the actual Thirty Years War, not end in the creation of a secular state, as the Syrian Sunni majority is conservative and devout even though it is not Salafist.  So do not expect a secular Sunni majority Syria to emerge.

In both of these two potential outcomes their is a sequel: the fallback of the Alawites, with or without the Assads, to their traditional lands in Latakia.  Latakia is the mountainous strip of Syria below Turkey on the coast of the Mediterranean.  While it is not completely fortifiable, it is certainly good ground - to paraphrase MG Buford - for digging in and trying to make a stand.  Not only would this prolong the dispute, but it would complicate Syria's claims to their portions of the recently discovered Leviathan petroleum and natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean.

Hezbollah chief warns Israel

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel Sunday that any war with Lebanon would see thousands of rockets fired on Israeli cities.

Nasrallah's televised warning comes just days after a tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the end of Ashura, a religious holiday for Shia Muslims.

“If the confrontation in the Gaza Strip given its blockade included missiles reaching 40 to 70 kilometers [into Israel], then the radius of a battle with us will reach occupied Palestine [Israel] from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea,” Nasrallah said, according to the Daily Star.

“From Kiryat Shmona to Eilat,” he continued, in reference to Israel's most northern and southern cities.

Nasrallah has previously warned that it now has an arsenal of weapons that could reach Israel's largest city Tel Aviv."  Global Post

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Israel and the "Israel Friendly Community" should take this warning seriously. 

"As of 2010[update], the Israeli government believed Hezbollah had an arsenal of more than 15,000 long-range rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon. Some of these missiles were said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat." Wiki on Hizbullah  

Israel's nightmare ought to be a situation in which war with both HAMAS and Hizbullah ocurs and 20,000 odd artillery rockets and short range ballistic missiles are fired at their population centers,  Iron Dome worked reasonably well against HAMAS artillery rockets, but even at the end of hostilities after a week of bombardment by Israel, HAMAS was still firing salvos of rockets at Israeli targets.  HAMAS has buried pre-aimed rockets that are very difficult for the Israelis to locate before they are fired.

A war in which both Islamist groups "unloads" the whole inventory at Israel would produce high casualties and much damage in Israel.

Would there be a lot of damage in Lebanon?  Yes.  Would that deter Hizbullah?  No.  pl  

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121125/hezbollah-chief-warns-israel-marking-e

 

 

Bibi lost at Gaza

Natanyahu looks weak.  The generally militaristic and nationalist electorate in Israel will make him pay for that in the election.  Bibi chose to mobilize for war against HAMAS and then drew back his hand when faced with; Obama, Mursi, the international media and continuing and defiant HAMAS rocket fire out of Gaza.  Iron Dome worked but but the fire out of Gaza continued unabated and Israel faced the possibility that Hizbullah might join in the barrage at some point.

The Palestinians in Gaza are celebrating because in the end the Israelis blinked.  pl 

 http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/23/opposition-parties-lambaste-netanyahu-for-ceasefire-in-gaza/ 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK22Ak03.html

 

Rice reveals that Hizbullah helps Syria

 

"U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice told the U.N. Security Council's monthly meeting on the Mideast that Hezbollah leaders are also continuing to plot new measures with Iran to keep Assad in power.       

Rice's comments — and those of Israel's U.N. Ambassador Ron Prosor — gave the clearest indication that Hezbollah, which fought a war against Israel in 2006 and is a major political and military force in Lebanon, is sending an increasing number of fighters to help the embattled Syrian regime.       

Syria's ruling Alawite minority is an offshoot of Shiite Islam and has had close ties to Iran and Hezbollah which are Shiite-dominated. Assad has long helped Iran aid Hezbollah and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, in destabilizing Lebanon and threatening Israel's security and U.S. interests in the Middle East. "  NY Times

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This is truly comic.  Susan "Meet the Press" Rice is still riding high.

Hizbullah is a major component of a stable government in Lebanon.  It was elected to the number of seats in parliament that give it that power a number of years ago and the political science seminar crowd that makes up the US foreign policy establishment has resolutely opposed the Lebanese government ever since.  BTW, when did Hizbullah last fire rockets or anything else into Israel?  If memory serves, it was in 2006.

In Syria the US seeks regime change without UN authority.   The allies of the US in this endeavor are; Turkey (Sunni ruled), Egypt (Sunni ruled), Saudi Arabia (Sunni ruled), Qatar (Sunni ruled) Al-Qa'ida (Sunni fanatics) and NATO.

On the other side, the government of Syria (Alawi, Druze, Shia, Sunni and Christian in orientation), Iran (Shia ruled), Iraq (Shia ruled) and now apparently Hizbullah (a Shia militia)

So, the US has become the ally of Al-Qa'ida and the Wahhabi Saudis against a multi-confessional government and its Shia allies.

How clever we are!  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012/10/15/world/middleeast/ap-un-un-mideast.html?ref=world&_r=0

"How Osama bin Laden is winning, even in death" Ignatius

"What we’re seeing now in Egypt is something that might be called electoral bin Ladenism. Take the group Gamaa Islamiya, which under its spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, made the first unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center in 1993. Today, the organization has formed a Salafist political party with the benign name Building and Development Party. This organization, which like al-Qaeda traces its roots to the Islamist theorist Sayyid Qutb, has 13 seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

Syria will be a test of whether this post-bin Laden Islamist movement can continue to reject violence or will instead be radicalized by the jihadist magnet that is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The successor to bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has tried to use the anti-Assad battle to rehabilitate the al-Qaeda brand — even though it’s another fight that embodies the Muslim-on-Muslim violence that bin Laden came to abhor."  Ignatius

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"... a year of mostly nonviolent democratic revolution. But it has brought to power some Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups that share common theological roots with bin Laden. And the al-Qaeda goal of driving the “apostate,” pro-American President Hosni Mubarak from power has been achieved."  Ignatius

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Truer words were never..., etc.  Islamic revivalism (especially in Sunni Islam) is a cyclical phenomenon.  Islam sees itself as a universal truth that should become a way of life for all.  All else is tactics.

 

Lebanon/Hizbullah?

 
I am attending a discussion on these two entities next week.  Does anyone have any thoughts or current references they would like to point out to me?  pl

Mikati forms Hizbullah led government in Lebanon.

 
"Formed after five months of political stalemate, the new Lebanese leadership was welcomed by President Bashar al-Assad of neighboring Syria, another Hezbollah sponsor now beset by international censure of its crackdowns of anti-regime protests.

"This government is committed to maintaining strong, brotherly ties which bind Lebanon to all Arab countries, without exception," Mikati said at the Baabda Presidential Palace.

"Let us go to work immediately according to the principles ... (of) defending Lebanon's sovereignty and its independence and liberating land that remains under the occupation of the Israeli enemy."

Mikati was appointed after Hezbollah and its allies toppled U.S.-aligned former premier Saad al-Hariri in January over a dispute involving the U.N.-backed probe into the 2005 assassination of statesman Rafik al-Hariri, Saad's father."  Reuters

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Another "triumph" for US policy.  We have insisted that Hizbullah is nothing but a terrorist organization and that it is not a legitimate political force.  We have insisted that in spite of Hizbullah's strong showing in internationally observed elections.  We pulled every lever that we could to deny Hizbullah the fruits of its last victories in parliamentary elections.  This is reminiscent of our attitude towards Hamas after its electoral triumphs.  Now Hizbullah is in the "driver's seat" in Lebanon.  Can anyone doubt that this is the time to mend fences with Hizbullah?  Can anyone doubt that our past policy has been the result of Israeli influence in the Bush and Obama Administrations?"  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/13/us-lebanon-government-idUSTRE75C48K20110613

PS  The Germans recognized the Libyan rebels today.  they are the 13th country to do so.  pl

Mikati in Beirut

I am distracted this morning by the necessity of participating in a mortgage closing. Please entertain each other on the subject of the new March 8 government in the Lebanon.  pl

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=124106#axzz1C3O8cLd3

 

Unacceptable compromise in Lebanon

""In case the person we support is chosen to form the Cabinet we will work for this Cabinet to be a government of national unity," Nasrallah said in a televised speech. "We do not seek to cancel anyone."

That is significant because Hezbollah and its allies had appeared to be closing in on enough support in parliament to form a government on their own, if they had chosen to try to do so."  Washpost

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The US will predictably oppose this manifestatation of the "local" narrative.  After all, what has this to do with Israeli triumphalism or the the war on terrorism (or Islam, if we understood it).  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/23/AR2011012301618.html?sid=ST2011012202759?hpid=topnews

Syria attempted Hariri cover-up - Richard Sale

As the U.N. yesterday completed its probe of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, not yet releasing the results, former senior and serving U.S. intelligence officials again insisted that the killing was done by Syria or Syrian proxies.

The Feb. 14 blast killed 16 and wounded 100, according to UPI news accounts.

The murder galvanized opposition elements in Lebanon which immediately demanded that Syria withdraw its forces.

But U.S. intelligence officials also accuse Syria of attempting to engineer a cover-up of the blast.  The Syrians prepared a cover story in advance, one serving U.S. intelligence official said.

More on Lebanon

I am down with a resurgence of the January crud (cold).  This WP editorial and the piece on Jumblatt bego for commentary.  I appeal for this on both.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/20/AR2011012005513.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110121/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_lebanon_politics

 

Lebanese Futures

 
As we all know, Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's government fell yesterday when Hizbullah and their Christian 'Awni allies withdrew from support of the government.  Between them they have nearly half the seats in parliament.   When Jumblatt's unpredicatable but possible support is added to that, a working majority may emerge that will name the next PM.  Such a PM is likely to be a hard-line Lebanese and Arab nationalist who will look to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran for support rather than to the Israeli/US Codominium. 

This situation represents yet another "triumph" for the Natanyahu/Obama Administration.  Having lost the struggle over the content of the Iran NIE, Israel/the WH/AIPAC is forced to "retreat" to mere rhetorical threats and murmurs about "increased military pressure" and other fantasies.

In fact, the intelligence developments determine that the US is not going to fight Iran as Israel's proxy.   Left to their own devices the Israelis are faced with the prospect of acting against Iran alone (likely to be a losing effort), attacking Lebanon in frustration, or doing nothing.

If they attack, then Lebanon must expect yet another campaign of deep bombing against civil infrastructure targets.  Such efforts have never brought a softening of Lebanese policies towards Isael, but the Israelis have no better, more productive ideas that they are willing to try.  In the front line area between the two countries, a renewal of fighting on the 2006 lines would involve a lot more Hizbullah rocket fire into Israel, more air defense weapons and newly built and organized defenses.  Iran continues to provide "depth" to Hizbullah's military efforts in terms of supply, training and theater level backing for deterrence of Israel.  This is exactly what Israel does not want.  pl

"Iran has role to play in Lebanon's stability: Hariri" AFP

 
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has a natural role in the region, especially in resolving crisis and strengthening stability in Lebanon."  Sa'ad Hariri quoted in AFP

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Now this IS amusing.  Sa'ad Hariri has been the darling of the AIPAC/Israel/Bush Administration collegium.  He has been described for years in those circles as a potential "savior" of Lebanon from the Hizbullah/Iran/Syrian forces that lurk in the background.

Now, apparently, the realities of life and politics in the eastern Mediterranean have penetrated his Saudi money filled head. 

Lebanon is once again on the brink of attack based in Israeli rage and frustration.  Hariri was supposed to know that he had been bought, not rented, but alas, his Saudi mentors have probably told him to go make peace with the Iranians.

So much for the AIPAC/Israeli belief that the Saudis are the implacable enemies of Iran.

Oh yes, let us not forget that in this speech he described Israel as the greatest threat in the region.  pl

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i18hmZ3YDg5mPjtaDyspGhDi9KAA?docId=CNG.0c72364653fa48fde37dd48eded0946e.ac1

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=121926#axzz16QlSyFHb