At popular request we will have a war game on the subject of the downfall of the current weller of jihadists in the context of the seemingly never ending sine curves of Sunni revivalism over the centuries.
The game will be played in turns- probably three, but, who knows... An initial scenario and crowdsourced comments will be followed after a bit by another scenario, one that has been affected by the crowdsourcing, etc.
I will be the judge of the value of individual comments and of the extent to which any or all comments will affect the next game turn scenario.
Game time will begin 2 November, 2015 and the first move will extend in Game Time to 1 February, 2016. Following moves will extend through periods of Game Time to be announced with the new turn.
Turn One Scenario:
Syria -The R+6 coalition of (Russia+SAA+Iran+Hizbullah+YPG Kurds+progovernment sectarian militias+Palestinian militias continues its offensives all over NW Syria, South of Damascus and in the rebel held suburbs of Damascus.
Turkey - Erdogan's crypto Islamist party regained control of the parliamentary political process in November. In spite of that, outrage has grown in Turkey against obvious ant-Kurdish government military and police action and Erdogan's attempts to subvert the Kemalist secular constitution. Turkey maintains a supposedly neutral posture in the islamist war against secularism in Syria while continuing to facilitate islamist supply and reinforcements through Turkish territory. US/Turkish problems over Turkish bombing of the YPG Kurds (US allies) and their USSF advisers has continued and a possible withdrawal of permission for US use of the base at Incirlik looms.
Iraq - The Abadi government's cooperation with Russia and Iran continues to increase.
Israel - Coordination of activities with Russia continues but occasional Israeli air attacks in Syria against Hizbullah targets has created additional tension with Russia.
Iran - Participation in the R+6 coalition continues to grow in both Syria and Iraq as well as in Russia's diplomatic efforts with regard to Syria.
Gulfies -SA and friends in the Gulf continue to support jihadi enemies of secularism in Syria and Iraq.
US - America continues to support anti-Western forces in Syria and Iraq. US Army Green Berets are inserted into the territory controlled by the YPK Kurds to assist them in various ways.
Russia - Continues to press its diplomatic effort seeking to craft a peace that does not hand over Syria to jihadis. at the same time Russia continues to reinforce both its air and ground expeditionary forces in Syria.
Ukraine - The Kiev government continues to attempt to regain territory in the east.
Afghanistan - Government control continues to be contested heavily by Taliban forces.
World Economy - Oil and Gas prices around the world remain "soft."
China - ???????
Comments in the game that are just meaningless or silly will not be posted or considered.
The question posed - What will happen between 2 November, 2015 and 1 February 2016? Real World comments in this turn will close on 5 November, 2015. pl