Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Israeli attacks inside Syria risks widening war" CSM

 

"A series of strikes on a military facility just outside Damascus last night has been widely attributed to Israel, which would make it the second Israeli attack on Syria in less than 48 hours and the third this year. Among the reported targets of the two latest attacks were consignments of Iranian Fateh-110 missiles reportedly intended for Hezbollah, which would allow the Syrian ally to launch precise attacks on Israeli targets such as Ben Gurion Airport or the defense ministry in Tel Aviv from launch pads as far north as central Lebanon. Israel has stated that it will not allow “game-changing” weapons systems to fall into Hezbollah’s hands. But Hezbollah is believed to have acquired by 2009 a Syrian-engineered version of the Fateh-110, known as the M600. Both Syrian and Iranian versions carry a 1,100-pound warhead and have a range of some 150 miles. The M600 reportedly has a basic guidance system that allows it to strike within 500 yards of its target at maximum range, enabling more accurate strikes than Hezbollah’s other long-range missiles afford."  CSM

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I am puzzled by Israel's actions.   The first air strike was evidently against weapons in transit from Jamraya to Hizbullah in Lebanon.  

That, for me,was a comprehensible military action for the purpose of denying Israel's enemy a shipment of advanced missiles of the M600 variety.

This latest strike or set of strikes was against facilities that are virtually in Damascus itself.  Mount Qasiun overlooks the city and the targets seem to have been in the valley behind the mountain.  I have eaten in several very civilian restaurants on the side that faces the town.  To strike this close to the capital of Syria is to invite escalation.

It has been my understanding that the IDF did not favor fostering the victory of the Islamist dominatated rebels.  Does this set of attacks represent an assertion by the Natanyahu government of greater control of IDF actions?  pl 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2013/0505/Israeli-attacks-inside-Syria-risks-widening-war

The Gatekeepers

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Not to horn in on BG Farrell's movie reviews here at SST, but I recently saw a documentary and wanted to bring it to the attention of the SST community.  About two weeks ago I was asked to go with our former USMC senior service rep here at the US Army War College to see the new Israeli documentary The Gatekeepers by Dror Moreh. The Gatekeepers is an oral history of Israel's internal security and intelligence service - Shin Bet.  Moreh's documentary is built around in depth interviews with the last six Shin Bet directors and spans events from the 1960s through to the last several years, combined with archival footage and computer generated reenactments.  In fact the documentary's production was delayed until the most recent former director, Yuval Diskin, retired and could be interviewed for and part of the project.  Moreh was able to get the project going, which features the first public interviews with any of these men, because one of the former directors, Ami Ayalon was willing to be interviewed after being elected to the Knesset from the Labor Party.  It was Ayalon who helped convince his peers to participate.

Moreh's documentary is divided into seven segments and includes such controversial topics as the 300 bus incident, the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, and breaking up the Israeli Jewish extremist attempts to blow up the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount. For me one of the most interesting portions of the film was when Yaakov Peri, who ran Shin Bet from 1988 to 1994, referred to Palestinian's who had engaged in attacks on Israel as melkhamim.  Melkhamim is Hebrew for warriors.  All the other former directors referred to Palestinian attackers as terroreest, which, as you can tell, is the transliteration word imported into Hebrew for terrorist.  The documentary was excellent and I cannot recommend it highly enough to the SST community.  If you're interested in counter-terrorism, intelligence, counterintelligence, and/or the Israeli/Palestinian dispute you need to see it if it is in your area. All six of the former directors interviewed demonstrated significant nuance in regards to their assignments, their adversaries, the problems Israel faces, and the politicians they work for.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the United States Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Army War College and/or the US Army.

Syria, the Levant, and the Real Domino Effect

*

Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

 

As the Syrian Civil War continues into its third year, there are several potential outcomes that we need to look out for and be concerned with.  These are not just limited to Syria, but to the entire Levant, and even to Iran.  So lets run the board in order:

Syria

There are really two key potential outcomes and one sequel for Syria itself: stalemate driven insurgency, the fall of the Assads leading to a Sunni majority takeover, and the withdrawl of the Alawites to Latakia.

It is, in some respects, both surprising and not surprising that the Assad government has held on for as long as it has.  In many ways the Syrian Civil War is both an Assad and Alawite existential fight. which partially explains just how hard the government has responded and how far it is willing to go to survive.  One of the two most likely outcomes to the dispute is that the government is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to completely put down the rebellion and that the rebellion is not strong enough to overthrow the government, but just strong enough to survive.  If this happens, then we will see a classic insurgency along the lines of what the Philippines has endured with the Moros on Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago and similar to what Columbia has faced with the FARC.  In this situation Syria essentially gets carved up into two or more statelets - with government control in some areas and rebel control in others. 

The second potential outcome is that the Assad government does fall and the Sunni majority, or some faction of it takes over.  And it is this latter concept of faction that is important.  There is clearly no good cohesion among the rebel groups, both the domestic Syrian and the foreign fighters/jihadis, as well as between them.  While it may ultimately be a good thing for the region if Assad goes, it will not be a simple transition.  The various factions are likely to try to consolidate power, claim and then establish legitimacy, and will come to blows with each other over who will take control.  This possible outcome has the potential to turn into a Syrian version of the Thirty Years War, where different factions try to and/or actually seize power, seek to consolidate, face challenges to their legitimacy, and then the cycle of violent succession starts all over again.  This would, unlike the actual Thirty Years War, not end in the creation of a secular state, as the Syrian Sunni majority is conservative and devout even though it is not Salafist.  So do not expect a secular Sunni majority Syria to emerge.

In both of these two potential outcomes their is a sequel: the fallback of the Alawites, with or without the Assads, to their traditional lands in Latakia.  Latakia is the mountainous strip of Syria below Turkey on the coast of the Mediterranean.  While it is not completely fortifiable, it is certainly good ground - to paraphrase MG Buford - for digging in and trying to make a stand.  Not only would this prolong the dispute, but it would complicate Syria's claims to their portions of the recently discovered Leviathan petroleum and natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean.

Benny Gantz says that Israel may do Iran alone.

"Gantz addressed a laundry list of regional security issues, including Iran, Gazan rockets, Hezbollah, Syria, Sinai and developments in the West Bank. He also apologized over the recent flag controversy at a ceremony ahead of Remembrance Day, and blasted proposed budget cuts to the Defense Ministry. Gantz told Israel Radio that Israel had the capabilities to strike Iranian nuclear targets on its own if no country came to its aid, and that intense, thorough discussions between the military and political leadership on the matter were ongoing. "  Times of Israel

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Benny Gantz has had an interesting career.  He has had a variety of Ground and Air force assignments but seems to be basically a highly educated "grunt."  That's good.  He was the Israeli Defence Attache in Washington.  In that job he would have had a great deal of association with US military and political people.  I see that we gave him the Legion of Merit when he left, so he wasn't a lot of trouble while he was here.  Gantz doesn't appear to be a pilot and is therefore probably immune from the Douhet Syndrome.

A knowledgeable Israeli told me recently that the IDF knows very well that it lacks the strength to make a thorough job of a set of destructive attacks on Iran's nuclear program.  US reluctance to participate in such an effort is a big planning problem for them.

The difficulty for the Israelis lies in the judgment by US intelligence that there is no Iranian weapons program at present.  This judgment has been clearly expressed by the DNI, James Clapper at public hearings.  He probably does not like making such statements since they expose him to the kind of hostility that will undoubtedly be expressed here, but the collective judgment of the analysts cannot be ignored unless we want to re-impose Cheney's Rules.

Something to remember is that Israel's knowledge of such matters is largely based on what the US tells and shows them.  They obviously draw different conclusions from the material.  pl 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-can-strike-iran-nuclear-targets-alone-idf-head-says/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benny_Gantz

 

 

Obama ME Scorecard - so far.

So far not too bad. 

- He did not free Pollard.

- He didn't offer to give Israel extra free money or guns.

- He and Natanyahu managed to conceal their true feelings about each other.

- BHO's speech to the "youth group" was very skilled and the reaction both positive and negative was useful.

- He apparently did not accept Israeli instruction on Iran and Syria.

- His speeches in Israel were simple traditional drivel about friendship, eternal friendship and more eternal friendship.

- His visit to Abbas was much the same thing.

One thing about the press chatter around this trip that concerns me is the renewed talk of Jordan's instability, deep problems, etc.  I don't see it.  Jordan has always been a delicately balanced place.  Israelis for many decades "beat the drum" for the idea that the Hashemite monarchy would soon disappear.  They stopped that after Jordan made peace with them.  Have their allies in the press now started this again?  Abdullah is a very Western, modern, man who wants to bring the country to a consititutional monarchy that would be a true parliamentary democracy.  He wants to do that without surrendering the country to the Islamists.  What part of that does the media not like?  pl

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/21/politics/obama-mideast-visit/?hpt=wo_c1

PM vows to raise Pollard case during Obama visit - JPost

“The time has long since come for Jonathan to go free,” Netanyahu said at the outset of the meeting. “This issue will come up during President Obama’s visit. It has already been raised countless times by myself and others, and the time has come for him to go free,” he said. Esther Pollard echoed Netanyahu’s words, saying “Jonathan can’t anymore. This is a golden opportunity now that the president of the United States is coming. If not now, when?” Pollard’s wife was joined in her meeting with Netanyahu by Lawrence Korb, who was US deputy secretary of defense during the Reagan administration in 1985 when Pollard was arrested, and is currently a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress think tank, which is considered close to the Obama administration. Also attending was Effie Lahav, who heads the Committee to Free Jonathan Pollard."  JPost

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OK.  How about this deal?

1-  The US frees Pollard and in the announcement reiterates the simple fact that he is a traitor to the United States who spied for Israel.

2 -At the same time Israel publicly admits that it betrayed its friendship with the United States in the Pollard affair.

3- POTUS orders the Secretary of the Navy to convene a full scale investigation with regard to the attack on the USS Liberty by the IDF in 1967.  The previous naval investigation of the incident conducted by Admiral Kidd in 1967 was a farce and completely inadequate.  Jim Webb should be asked to conduct the investigation.  pl 

http://www.jewishpress.com/indepth/opinions/what-about-the-defamation-of-pollard/2013/03/18/?src=ataglance

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=305271

New FBI surveillance video release reopens IAI Nozette espionage question--IRmep

New FBI counterespionage surveillance video release reopens concerns about Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. On March 21, 2012 U.S. prosecutors played FBI surveillance video in court of former NASA employee Stewart Nozette agreeing to sell U.S. government secrets to Israel. Nozette was then sentenced to thirteen years in prison. The FBI surveillance video, obtained by IRmep under the Freedom of Information Act, is now available on YouTube and Vimeo. An imperfect redaction reveals Nozette appearing to say he sold classified U.S. government information to "Israeli Aircraft," also known as Israel Aerospace Industries and IAI.

YouTube: http://youtu.be/UKaL-adh1T4

Vimeo: http://vimeo.com/61086025

In 2007 the FBI obtained a sealed warrant to search Nozette's home. They discovered a huge cache of classified U.S. government files unlawfully stored on Nozette's computer. One document named "Proposed Activities for 2005-6" ominously contained a section titled "Penetration of NASA" on behalf of a foreign client. The FBI soon discovered that between 1998 and 2008 a nonprofit run by Nozette received $225,000 in "consulting fees" from Israel Aerospace Industries. IAI tasked Nozette to obtain "technical data" beginning in November of 1998. Nozette complied with IAI's requests in exchange for "regular payments" according to criminal complaints filed in court. In the 1950s the state-owned IAI was established and led by Adolph "Al" Schwimmer, an American felon convicted for serially violating U.S. arms export controls. Schwimmer fraudulently obtained heavily discounted surplus U.S. aircraft from the War Assets Administration. In the 1960s IAI obtained stolen French Mirage 5 jet fighter plans in order to build its own copycat Kfir jet fighter. In the 1980s IAI relied on the American Israel Public Affairs Committee to win U.S. funding for the development of the troubled Lavi jet fighter. The Lavi program was terminated in 1987 after questionable Israeli technology transfers to China. The U.S. has paid for half of the jointly developed IAI/Boeing Arrow Anti-Missile system since 1988. Since 2007 the AIPAC has lobbied for hundreds of millions in additional U.S. taxpayer funding for the new Arrow III, beyond the $3 billion in military aid already provided to Israel annually. Today AIPAC DC convention attendees will lobby Congress against cutting under sequestration any funding to IAI or other aid to Israel. On May 4, 2012 US Attorney Ron Machen was confronted on WAMU radio (YouTube) for officially stating no classified information was passed by Nozette to Israel.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RK-acJmFPg

This was contradicted by court filings and now surveillance video. Machen could not credibly explain why the Justice Department limited its criminal investigation to only Nozette.  IRMEP

"If Israel strikes Syria again, all bets are off" The Telegraph

"Israel’s policy towards Syria has, for two years, consisted of keeping its distance and sending warnings to Assad. As the Syrian state weakens and, at the same time, it has less and less to lose, Israel will find it increasingly difficult to insulate itself from events next door. If air strikes recur, this policy is going to fall apart. "  The Telegrapf

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The Syrian and Iranians lack any real retaliatory means against Israel as yet.  The real danger for Israel is that Hizbullah might decide to unleash its rocket and missile fire into northern Israel.  pl  

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/shashankjoshi/100201153/if-israel-strikes-syria-again-all-bets-are-off/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah#Armed_strength

Victory close to defeat for Netanyahu By Pierre Klochendler

"Results show that support for the joint Likud-Beitenu list of candidates Netanyahu headed has dropped dramatically, from its previous 42 seats to as few as 31. Former TV star Yair Lapid, a newcomer in politics, stole the show. His centrist party Yesh 'Atid (There's a Future) has become the second largest, with 19 seats. Empowered with a strong social program focusing on cheaper housing for young couples, compulsory draft of religious students exempted from serving in the military and, in general, with an uncompromising fight against social inequities, Lapid has suddenly emerged as the kingmaker of any future sustainable coalition. "  Asia Times

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This is a "game changer."  If Bibi finds it necessary to form a coalition with Lapid then his policy towards many things will inevitably be different then it has been.  Relations with the US, intentions towards Iran, a totally permissive attitude towards rampant social ineguality; these things will have to change.

Lapid should insist on the Defense Ministry as a prize as the price of his entry into a coalition.  Failing that, some other post in the inner securty cabinet should be required.  pl 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/OA25Ak01.html

The Politics of War and It Effects on Israel--Foresman

The following passage from an article over at the New York Review of Books caught my attention, it was written by an Israeli, a resident of an urban Kibbutz in Sderot.

How did we, as a society, lose the ability to formulate questions about the feasibility of a political alternative? How did it happen that a person who suggests a nonviolent solution is the delusional one, the traitor, and the one who calls for the leveling of Gaza is the true patriot? How did peace become the enemy of the people, and war always the preferred option? How did it happen that dialogue and treaties cause more public fear than a volley of missiles? And how did these dehumanizing processes seal us off from the suffering of others? How did we lose the capacity for empathy? What does it mean that a girl from Gaza—whose school was bombed and her best friend was killed before her eyes—has to remind us that they, too, are human beings? And how has a nation that has occupied other people’s territory for forty-five years continued to tell itself, with such deep conviction, that we are the single and ultimate victim in this story? And the evil of the occupation has become so banal that no one sees the evil anymore.

Does this reflect a dominant view?  No but it does reflect the divide that exist within Israel.  The political divisions within Israel are along secular and sectarian lines as well as where they immigrated from to Israel.

Amnon Lipkin-Shahak - dead at 68

One of nature's noblmen has passed from the scene.  I first knew him when he was head of IDF general staff intelligence.  His quiet intelligence and personal grace was always notable in a service not always memorable for the kind of restraint and moderation that he he typified. 

In retirement from the army he tried to found a centrist political party that would have a real hope of finding peace with the Palestinians and the Israeli government often asked him to act as a communication channel to the PLO and in particular to Yasser Arafat.

I remember walking on the Via Dolorosa in the Old City of Jerusalem with him.  It was a pleasant afternoon. Stores were open.  I stopped to chat with several shopkeepers.  One of them asked me what I was doing with HIM, meaning Amnon.  I told the man that this one was different and then began to include General Shahak in the conversation.  I acted as his interpreter.  A group gathered around us as we talked of business from tourism, conditions of life and hopes for the future.  One man said that he could not get the city government to deal with his electricity supply for the store.  Amnon made a note and said that he would call Teddy Kolleck, the mayor.

When we walked away the first shopkeeper sad to me, "yes, he is different."  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/world/middleeast/amnon-lipkin-shahak-israeli-peace-negotiator-dies-at-68.html?_r=0

Israel worried about AQ, not Assad

 
 

" Syrian rebels backed by radical Islamists captured a northern regimental command center of President Bashar al-Assad's army, activists said on Sunday, as Russia dismissed speculation that it is preparing for its ally's possible exit from power."  Reuters

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I recently spoke to a friend who is an Israeli consultant to the IDF General Staff.  He says that Israel's policy with regard to the fate of the Assad government is "paralysed."

IMO, it is in this position because Israel's interests conflict in the matter.On the one hand, Israel has pushed for many years for the removal of Bashar Assad on the general principle that he is what they call "a near enemy."  On that basis they encouraged the Bush and Obama administrations to have nothing to do with him in spite of his repeated efforts to start negotiations with Washington over improved relations.  On the other hand, the rebel forces in Syria are increasingly dominated by jihadists.  This is true both of the foreign AQ associated groups who do much of the fighting, and the supposedly secular FSA.  In the case of the FSA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and private Islamists "funnel" money to the FSA through people farther down the chain of command than the uniformed "colonels" who appear in Western media.  Israel understands that in a post-Assad Syria the fiercest will prevail in the struggle for political control.

On FNS today the Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, declined to endorse, Mike Wallace's suggestion that Assad has been preparing to use chemical weaponry in the civil war.  He said "we are not sure about the truth of these reports" or something to that effect.  Instead he stated that what worries Israel is the possibility that Assad's government might lose control of chemical weapons and they could end up in jihadi or Hizbullah hands.

Wallace looked crestfallen and surprised.  It seemed that Wallace actually believes the manufactured meme about Assad and chemical warfare.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/09/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8AJ1FK20121209

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/09/us-syria-crisis-israel-chemicalweapons-idUSBRE8B805Z20121209

 

Israel states its defiance once again.

 

"Israel is moving forward with development of Jewish settlements in a contentious area east of Jerusalem, defying the United States by advancing a project that has long been condemned by Washington as effectively dooming any prospect of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict." NY times

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"effectively dooming any prospect..."  Yes, but the Likudniks there and here who effectively control US ME policy never intended that there should be a two-state solution on other than a basis of helotry for the Palestinians.

Having failed to block the UN resolution on Palestine Israel announced this measure as a gesture of contempt.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/01/world/middleeast/israel-moves-to-expand-settlements-in-east-jerusalem.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20121201&_r=0

SST Potpourri - 28 november, 2012

"Despite  official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been  “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy  military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions of dollars each year. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently addressed the success of U.S. efforts against al Qaeda, saying “al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its most effective leaders are gone. Its command, and control have been degraded, and its safe haven is shrinking….we have decimated core al-Qaeda.” The U.S. must still “finish the job” in Afghanistan, Secretary Panetta added, calling for continued commitment on both military and diplomatic fronts. "  Afghanistan Study Group

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/2012/11/26/al-qaeda-decimated-but-us-considers-heavy-military-footprint-in-afghanistan/

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This is all nonsense.  The Afghans are not going to agree to a SOFA that gives US forces legal immunity in their  country and that will be the end of it.  The Pentagon should start preparing for that event.  pl

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William Hague has said today Britain will back the Palestinian bid for United Nations observer status if they agree to peace talks with Israel.  The UK will abstain from debating the issue at the UN General Assembly as there are no guarantees Palestine president Mahmoud Abbas will negotiate.   Express.coDespite official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions

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So, the US and Israel will vote against non-member 0bserver status for the PA?  Why does the US continue with the farce of pretending to be an "honest broker" in this dispute?  The soon to be disunited Britain will abstain unless the Palestinians give up a right to press charges against Israel in the international courts?  The Palestinians will win the vote in the General assembly and then prefer charges against such as Natanyahu, Barak and Avigdor Lieberman.  This will expose these Israelis to extradition action by various member states.  Then Israel can be a prison for them in much the same way that Gaza is for the Palestinians.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9708521/Britain-will-abstain-on-Palestinian-bid-without-assurances-says-William-Hague.html

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"Fresh clashes broke out in Cairo on Wednesday near Tahrir Square, as riot police fired tear gas and charged at Egyptian protesters angry about a move by President Mohamed Morsy to extend his powers." CNN International

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Egypt is on fire again.  There were 100,000 anti-Mursi demonstrators in Tahrir square yesterday.  The US media is obviously avoiding the subject of the imposition of a tyranny in Egypt.  It seems that the revelation of their own naivete two years ago is too much  for them to cope with.  And then there are the naifs and neocons in the governmenr who still cling to their hopes.  pl

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/28/world/meast/egypt-protests/?hpt=hp_t2

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"About 14 percent of the 1.4 million troops in the active-duty military are women. About 280,000 women were deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. About 150 women died in those two conflicts. Although there may be growing support in the military to opening some jobs in combat units to women, there remains stiff opposition from the infantry, where the physical demands — like walking long distances carrying heavy loads and handling bulky weapons — are most demanding. In a widely circulated article, a female Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan wrote in the Marine Corps Gazette this year that seven months in Afghanistan left her physically broken, with muscle atrophy in her leg and an ovarian condition that left her infertile. “I am confident that should the Marine Corps attempt to fully integrate women into the infantry, we as an institution are going to experience a colossal increase in crippling and career-ending medical conditions for females,” the article’s author, Capt. Katie Petronio, wrote. "  NY Times

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If I recall correctly there is a provision in law aganst womens' service in certain combat specialties in the infantry, armor and SF.  If that is so, then congressional repeal of that provision would also be necessary, but since the Congress can be expected to do anything "catchy" that appears popular, well...  I think that since these women see this as a civil rights jobs program issue they should be given the chance to "try it on." My only hope about this is that physical standards are not lowered to make this easier.  War is an equal opportunity employer.  It would be most unfortunate if some of these job seekers literally have to be carried.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/servicewomen-file-suit-over-direct-combat-ban.html?_r=0

 

 

Hezbollah chief warns Israel

"Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel Sunday that any war with Lebanon would see thousands of rockets fired on Israeli cities.

Nasrallah's televised warning comes just days after a tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the end of Ashura, a religious holiday for Shia Muslims.

“If the confrontation in the Gaza Strip given its blockade included missiles reaching 40 to 70 kilometers [into Israel], then the radius of a battle with us will reach occupied Palestine [Israel] from the Lebanese border to the Jordanian border and the Red Sea,” Nasrallah said, according to the Daily Star.

“From Kiryat Shmona to Eilat,” he continued, in reference to Israel's most northern and southern cities.

Nasrallah has previously warned that it now has an arsenal of weapons that could reach Israel's largest city Tel Aviv."  Global Post

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Israel and the "Israel Friendly Community" should take this warning seriously. 

"As of 2010[update], the Israeli government believed Hezbollah had an arsenal of more than 15,000 long-range rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon. Some of these missiles were said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat." Wiki on Hizbullah  

Israel's nightmare ought to be a situation in which war with both HAMAS and Hizbullah ocurs and 20,000 odd artillery rockets and short range ballistic missiles are fired at their population centers,  Iron Dome worked reasonably well against HAMAS artillery rockets, but even at the end of hostilities after a week of bombardment by Israel, HAMAS was still firing salvos of rockets at Israeli targets.  HAMAS has buried pre-aimed rockets that are very difficult for the Israelis to locate before they are fired.

A war in which both Islamist groups "unloads" the whole inventory at Israel would produce high casualties and much damage in Israel.

Would there be a lot of damage in Lebanon?  Yes.  Would that deter Hizbullah?  No.  pl  

 

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121125/hezbollah-chief-warns-israel-marking-e

 

 

Bibi lost at Gaza

Natanyahu looks weak.  The generally militaristic and nationalist electorate in Israel will make him pay for that in the election.  Bibi chose to mobilize for war against HAMAS and then drew back his hand when faced with; Obama, Mursi, the international media and continuing and defiant HAMAS rocket fire out of Gaza.  Iron Dome worked but but the fire out of Gaza continued unabated and Israel faced the possibility that Hizbullah might join in the barrage at some point.

The Palestinians in Gaza are celebrating because in the end the Israelis blinked.  pl 

 http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/23/opposition-parties-lambaste-netanyahu-for-ceasefire-in-gaza/ 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK22Ak03.html

 

Mashall says HAMAS could accept Israel

In this interview Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal declared a position on Palestinian statehood that is nearly identical to that of his Fatah rival, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in an interview with CNN aired Wednesday.

"I accept a Palestinian state according [to] the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as the capital, with the right to return," the Hamas leader told Christine Amanpour in Cairo.

Pushed about his party's refusal to recognize Israel, Mashaal said such a declaration could only be made once a Palestinian state has been created.

"After this state is established, it decides its standing toward Israel," the Hamas leader said.  JPost

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This is much the same thing that Mashall insisted on saying on Charlie Rose's show in 2010.  Rose appeared to be unhappy with this and kept questioning Mashall in the apparent hope that he would express some anti-semitic thoughts.

IMO Mashall can say this until his head falls off or is blown off by the "Israel friendly community" and nothing will result.  Israel does not want peace with the Palestinians on any sort of basis of equality.  The PA has been sufficiently subjugated with money and fear to produce a peace of unequals.  HAMAS has not been subjugaed yet.  The struggle will continue indefinitely.  pl

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11032 

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=293084&rz=n_22nov12

 

 

Will "iron dome" work against ballistic missiles?

The "iron dome" anti-rocket defense system appears to have functioned well in the recent Gaza crisis.  There remain questions as to whether saturation of the system defense by Hizbullah's massive rocket and missile inventories  could occur, and more importantly, does this system work against ballistic missiles.  pl  

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2012/Nov-22/195872-hezbollah-missiles-would-be-test-for-iron-dome.ashx#axzz2CzMQp5d5

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_domestic_weapons_production

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missiles 

 

Syria, France, Gaza, Natanyahu and Obama

"After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead."  Jeffrey White

----------------------------------------------

"... while regime forces are stretched thin,"

White's conclusion that the Syrian Army is "stretched thin" is based on a belief that most of the Syrian Army is unreliable and cannot be used in counter-guerrilla operations.   If that is true and if only 30% or 50% of the Army is usable, then the failure of the government to mount a continuous series of operations to clear the north of rebel forces is understandable.  White does not make it clear what the basis is for his judgment that large parts of the Syrian Army are unreliable.  He is a meticulous analyst and i am sure that he has some solid basis for this judgment.  There are parts of various governments who have the means to know exactly which Syrian units have been employed and with what frequency.  Is this article a reflection of that kind of certain knowledge? 

White also opines that foreign assistance to the rebels would have a significant effect on the outcome of the war.  Well, of course it would.  The Syrian forces are very dependant on their equipment;  aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery pieces to be exact.  Training and equipping of the rebels with weaponry that is effective against these systems  would be very effective and possibly decisive.  The training could be done in Turkey or Jordan.  France has recognised the rebel kaleidoscope of groups as the government of Syria.  Is this a prelude to French action in this area?  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-internal-war-turns-against-the-regime

**********************************

"The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed Obama and is forcing a reset of their mutual equations even before the US president gets started on his second term in the White House.  Asia Times

-----------------------------------------

Yes, the Gaza attacks are about Obama and not about HAMAS.  Natanyahu is demonstrating to BHO that he can do as he pleases and that the Congress will back him and not the president of the United States.  It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything.  pl  

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak03.html

 

Bibi's "friend' has been re-elected.

".... former Israeli ambassador to Washington, Sallai Meridor, suggested that Obama would not easily forget that Netanyahu had created a perception that Israel wanted Romney to defeat him. Obama is "very strategic, very disciplined", Meridor said during a panel discussion on the U.S. election at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. "But I don't think we can just assume that what happened between them over past four years will have just evaporated," he said. "When people fight for their political life and have the perception that their partner is trying to undermine their chances, it's not going to disappear.""  Reuters

--------------------------------------

Yes, "what goes around comes around."  "Payback is a bitch."  Donkeys as well as elephants have long memories.  etc.  I can't remember any more of these old "saws" at the moment.  Seems to me we ought to "unleash" people lke Carville and Plouffe to help the Israelis with their coming election.  "Fair is fair." (ah, another one) As I recall we did that once before with significant effect. 

As for the issue of Bibi's bluster and threats to attack Iran with or without US cooperation and support, I will say again (irony alert) that Israel should safeguard its sovereignty and dignity by doing whatever it wishes to about Iran and should do it alone.  The right wing in Israel "knows" that only a successful (more irony)  Israeli demonstration of its regional hegemony will suffice.  Go for it!   Do it without the US.

And then there is the issue of the Palestinians .  Bibi's coalition has no intention of agreeing to anything like a sizable, truly independent Palestine.  The (more irony) "uppity' Palestinians are trying to sneak into the UN as an observer member state.  If they achieve that goal, Israeli leaders will be liable in the international courts for what they do to a member state.  Good!  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/07/us-usa-campaign-israel-palestinians-idUSBRE8A61D920121107

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/07/binyamin-netanyahu-barack-obama-victory

 

 

"Renewed Brawl in Israel Over Iran Attack?" by Harper

 

The below item, posted today by the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank with close ties to the IDF leadership, indicates that there is renewed concern that Netanyahu will revive plans to launch a preventive unilateral strike on Iran early next year if he is reelected.  I am told that the publication of details of this wargame, which includes a warning that an Israeli strike could lead to an out-of-control escalation ultimately triggering World War III is part of a push-back, once again, by sane elements in the Israeli national security establishment who distrust Bibi Netanyahu as a messianic lunatic who could lead Israel and the world into a devastating war.  This comes at the same time that other Israeli national security insiders are revealing that Bibi tried to launch a preventive strike against Iran in 2010, but was rebuffed by the IDF leadership and others because he did not have the go-ahead from his Security Cabinet or the Knesset.  British independent TV Channel 4 is going to air a broadcast tonight detailing the 2010 attempt to launch a preventive attack, and just how close things came to a hot war.

http://www.inss.org.il/publications.php?cat=21&incat=&read=10461

"Pro-settler Israeli organization calls for an end to US aid to Israel" Adam Horowitz

 "Ethnic Jews currently living in the United States overwhelmingly support and often lobby (albeit not as aggressively as Lockheed Martin) for American aid to Israel, not because the Jewish state genuinely needs the money but because an economic and political connection between the government they live under and the government of their people’s country allows them to feel a greater sense of personal security in a foreign land. The notion of Israel serving as a United States fortress in the Middle East allows America’s Jewish community to believe it can avoid ever having to confront questions of dual-loyalty."  Adam Horowitz quoting a settler.

-------------------------------------

These American Jewish soldiers and their chaplain don't seem to realise that they are living in a "foreign land."    The "divorce" can't come soon enough.  pl  

 

http://mondoweiss.net/2012/11/pro-settler-israeli-organization-calls-for-an-end-to-us-aid-to-israel.html

"Israeli Defense Chief Says Iran Postponed Nuclear Ambitions" NY Times

"Asked why Iran would have decided on such a conversion, Mr. Barak said it might have taken Israeli and American warnings seriously, might have wished to delay a confrontation with Israel until after the American presidential elections, or might have been seeking to convince the agency of the sincerity of its peaceful intent. Iran has consistently denied it intends to build a nuclear weapon and has denounced Israel’s assertions as warmongering."  NY Times

----------------------------------

The Israeli/AIPAC insistence that MAD will not work against Iran has been based on the notion that the Iranian leadership is made up of religiously fanatic madmen who seek martyrdom for their country and who do not think logically.  Both the Iranian action in this instance and the Israeli acceptance of it deny the reality of the Israeli/AIPAC opinion.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/31/world/middleeast/israel-says-iran-has-postponed-nuclear-ambitions.html?ref=world&_r=0

 

An Expert Artisan's View: Ephraim Halevy on Iran and the Foreign Policy Stakes in the US Presidential Election

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

On Sunday, the Al-Monitor published a very in depth and timely interview between reporter Laura Rozen and former Mossad Director and Israeli National Security Advisor Ephraim Halevy.**  The interview covers many important foreign policy issues, specifically dealing with Iran, how to approach one's adverseries, and the impact of Israel's concerns with Iran on the US presidential campaign and US foreign policy.

Some of the most important take aways were his remarks about how one should deal with one's adversaries:

    " Therefore, I realized that dialogue with an enemy is essential. There is nothing to     lose. Although the claim was, if you talk to them, you legitimize them But by not     talking to them, you don't de-legitimate them. So this convinced me, that we all     have been very superficial in dealing with our enemies. [...]

    Not everything you try succeeds. But you have to be willing to try. If you fail 10 times,     and succeed once, the success outweighs the failures.

    What happened: In order to meet public opinion, both Israel and the US governments     have tied our own hands. There is a law [...] which prohibits US officials from talking     to Hamas [...] In the end, you create an inherent disadvantage for yourself."

He also has some really important thoughts in regards to leadership at the strategic level in regards to operations, such as the one to kill/capture bin Laden:

     "I think nobody who has been involved in ordering the use of force can forget the     angst, the days and nights of concern, as to what and how it can be done.

    Romney has said, Anybody could have decided to finish bin Laden. Even [Jimmy]     Carter. This again  was a mistaken concept. President Obama didn’t just decide [one     day to kill bin Laden]. The operation to end the life of bin Laden necessitated     multiple points of decision by him. I know from operations I have been involved with     on a smaller scale.

    They are very intricate. You don’t just give the order and wait in your office for     commanders to come three months later and say it’s done. No. This kind of operation,     which is accident prone, hands on operation, one has to make one decision after the     other […] It took courage and cool headedness and leadership. Anyone who says it     was an easy thing to decide, doesn’t understand what he’s talking about. [Such     comments] show a total lack of understanding of what this kind of operation means.

    Once I was in charge of an operation and Netanyahu was Prime Minister. One day,     because of the intricacy of what we were doing, I talked to him 10 times on the phone     […] Ten times. It was a Friday, a day I will not forget.

    This kind of operation, every minute, an issue comes up, that sometimes requires a     decision on the political level.

    The Libya story, the way it’s being used, is a sordid manipulation. […]"

And he discusses something near and dear to my heart, which is trying to understand the identities of those we have to engage with - allies, competitors, and especially adversaries:

    "Over the years, both because of personal contact with some key figures on the other         side […] I realized, in order to be effective with one’s enemies, you have to have two     essential capabilities: To overcome by force if necessary — and/or to withstand their     force if necessary. And do everything you can to get into their minds and try to     understand how they see things, what their concerns are — their dreams,     aspirations, hopes, feelings are. And where if at all there is room for common ground     of one kind or another.

    I think that what we have had over the years is an abundance of one side, and a dearth     of the other.     There has been a big emphasis, and rightly so, [on overcoming     adversaries by force]. But we have paid little attention [to understanding one’s     enemies.] And I have always had the feeling to look for ways and means of creating     channels for dialogue. I was involved in channels of dialogue in one way or other,     in major and minor roles, as of 1973-1974, when I served here in Washington, D.C., as     Mossad station chief."

The whole interview is excellent.  Ms. Rozen did a great job, so click on over and read the whole thing!  It'll be far more informative on anything at the debate, in the Spin Room, or in the coverage over the next week...

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

** Hat tip to Tom Levenson over at Balloon Juice

No limits on building in E. Jerusalem - Reuters

"Israel's foreign minister on Saturday dismissed criticism by the European Union of Jewish settlement on occupied land the Palestinians seek for a state, advising the 27-nation bloc to attend to its own problems instead."  Reuters

................................................

"Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denied a newspaper report on Friday that said he had agreed in principle to hand back land annexed from Syria as part of secret U.S.-mediated peace talks that broke off last year."  Reuters

------------------------------------

Israel bestrides the world.  Anyone who thinks that the present Israeli government is in the least interested in an equitable settlement with the Palestinians has only to contemplate these statements.  What is revealed here is a crafty use of half truth and deception used for tactical reasons to obtain the long term goal of unlimited Israeli power in the ME.

Is it part of the agenda that Israel should continue to control the US political process?  Answer that for yourself.  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/20/us-palestinians-israel-eu-idUSBRE89J08S20121020

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-israel-syria-idUSBRE89B0O320121012

 

Maybe Cantor is the leader?

"... the Israel lobby seems to be breaking openly, between Likudniks and liberal Zionists. This is further evidence of the fact that Walt and Mearsheimer's thesis of the complicity of the Israel lobby in the disastrous Iraq war can now be discussed, because liberal Jews are disassociating themselves from the traditional lobby. Also notice that Alterman bashes David Gregory for calling Netanyahu the "leader of the Jewish people.""  Mondoweiss

-----------------------------------

I think I will just leave this open to discussion.  pl

http://mondoweiss.net/2012/10/jewish-political-community-supported-iraq-war-but-now-divides-between-neocon-funders-and-liberals-alterman.html

A great arrogance revealed to all.

 

In my experience of them, the Israeli government and in particular the IDF liked to give briefings using cartoons as graphics.  These comic strips were more or less in the "Mad Magazine" tradition.  Look it up.  The most serious subjects were discussed this way, often in international meetings.  When I first was exposed to this habit I thought it droll, but as I came to see that this practice would be never ending, I began first to be offended and then analytic about the matter.  I protested but they continued to do it.  Israelis seem to see the rest of the world as "under instruction" and people other than themselves as needing some sort of systematic "support" if comprehension is to be achieved.

In that context, Bibi's condescending use of a primitive cartoon as an instructional "crutch" was not a surprise for me.  IMO he thinks of us all as childlike and needing a clear focus for our attention and limited cognitive powers.  It is for this reason that he endlessly, obnoxiously, lectures all who fall into his "grip" for a few minutes.  Since BHO is a bit of a lecturer himself, it is not surprising that sparks have flown between them.

As Brigadier FB Ali wrote yesterday, the speech itslf was a surprising muddle.  It was difficult to know what it was that Bibi wanted from this lecture other than a chance to sneer.  He said that Iranian progress toward uranium enrichment must be halted before it reached what he said was the "second stage" of enrichment.  He then drew his magic marker line at the 90% level on his cartoon bomb.  If I recall correctly 90% is the level of enrichment needed for a fission bomb.  What was he trying to communicate?

He said that the IAEA supports his assertions that the Iranians are proceeding toward the second level of enrichment.  This he sometimes said was 70% (labeled 1st Stage) and at other times 90%. (the red line)  In fact, the IAEA in its August 2012 report on Iran finds nothing to be diverted from inspection and nothing enriched beyond 20% .

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-37.pdf

At some points in his "chalk talk" he referred to production and enrichment at facilities of which "our wonderful intelligence services" as yet know nothing.  He "generously" seemed to include the USIC in this description.  I suppose he felt that he should since his own services are so dependent on the USIC.  Nevertheless, if we know nothing about these facilities, then how can we include their unknown production in our estimates?

It was suggested to me today that he looked and sounded deranged.  Jon Stewart said last night that the cartoon was absurd and that if the Israelis want to know what an atom bomb looks like they should go down in their "basement" and look at one.  pl

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=2012+netanyahu+speech+video+at+un&view=detail&mid=3DFF2A754C513F0985E83DFF2A754C513F0985E8&first=0

 

Washpost soft-core propaganda on Iran

The Outlook section of today's ( 23 September, 2012) Washington Post contains a three part essay on what the Post wants the American people to believe would be likely to happen in the event of an unprovoked Israeli "maximum effort" attack on Iran.  This attack supposedly takes place before the US election in November.  The essay is written by three groups of authors and it seems to have been intended that such a device would make the assembled essay seem more plausibly to represent three different points of view.   They are all representative of the same point of view.  Amusingly, this conceit recalls three plays once seen on British TV that were set in an English suburban house and garden. In these plays characters make entrances and exits from one part of the same house to another or out into the garden.  Alfred Molina starred on television.  The actors go from one supposed play to another simultaneously in a literary creation that really is but one play.  A pretty device. it was better done than this collective sermon.

The three parts of the essay supposedly represent the action in Washington, Tel Aviv and Teheran in the event of this attack.  A general defect of the thing is the complete ignorance reflected of the actual limitations of distances, weapons, numbers of aircraft and missiles, Iranian air defenses, the lack of any recovery air fields between Israeli bases and the targets or SAR capability for the attacking Israeli force.  Basic military knowledge of the situation is ignored in the manner common in politico-military strategic war games.  In these "games" any reference to actual limitations are airily waved off as not germane.  In this essay it is suggested that one option is for the US to "shoot down' the attacking Israeli force before it passes beyond Iraq.  The Joe Biden character angrily says that this is not an option.  He is correct but not for the reason implied.  In fact, since the completion of the US withdrawal from Iraq the US has no ability to do such a thing and neither do the Iraqis.  The nearest USAF assets are in the Gulf or Turkey and the nearest US Navy assets are where the carriers may be.  Look at the distances.

The three essay parts can be somewhat summarized by capital:

- Tel Aviv.  Natanyahu is depicted as masterful, deeply insightful, profoundly wise and decisive.  He dominates the play and tells the president of the US that he expects the US to fully support Israel's action.  Israeli attacks are described as not fully but significantly effective against the Iranian facilities and Israel is said to have "misplaced" one aircraft.  There are many aspects of intelligence preparation of this battlefied that the Israelis could not do for themselves and that would not be done for them in the context of a unilateral attack.  Those aspects would cost them dearly, but the authors know nothing of that and do not mention it.

- Washington.  BHO is "drawn" as a "lightweight" ditherer who would rather have dinner with his family and counsel his children than focus on this world crisis.  His administration is depicted as deeply divided over a response to Israel's seizure of the initiative.  While he dithers, the Senate of the United States votes 99 t0 1 to support a war powers resolution.  The House would presumably be even more supportive of war.  Senor, the neocon voice of Romney, denounces the president of the United States for his disloyalty to Israel.

- Teheran.  Having been struck the mullahs decide to refrain from retaliation for fear of a "regional war."  This is a striking piece of cognitive dissonance.  In one part of the larger essay the Iranian leaders are said to be madmen intent on jihad.  In this part of the essay they are rational actors who decide against retaliation on a coldly calculating basis.  If they would do that, why attack them at all?

Economic effects are portrayed as minimal, the Arab states are depicted as favorable.

The general message is that such an Israeli attack would largely succeed in spite of the fecklessness of Obama.  The authors claim that costs of all kinds would be low.

The Washington Post chose to publish such a propaganda piece with the obvious goal of undermining the president of the United States and supportiing a foreign political leader.

I fear for October.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions

“The Easy Road to War with Iran” by Dr. Christopher Bolan

In Thursday’s Washington Post David Ignatius discusses the results of a war game simulation conducted at the Brookings Institution.  He observes that “the scariest aspect of a U.S.-Iran war game…was the way each side miscalculated the other’s responses – and moved toward war even as the players thought they were choosing restrained options.” 

In reading Jeffrey Record's “A War It Was Always Going to Lose:  Why Japan Attacked American in 1941” (2011) I was struck that the enduring historical lessons he draws in examining this case also underscore the relative ease with which the US and Iran could now easily drift toward war with dire consequences for both sides.    For those interested, a shorter version of Record’s book was published in 2009 as a U.S. Army War College publication available here. 

Allow me to briefly extend the ‘Top Five’ of Record’s historical lessons (within quotation marks below) to the situation with Iran today:

1. “Fear and honor, ‘rational’ or not, can motivate as much as interest”:   A war between the US and Iran is almost certainly not in the objective rational interest of either party.  Iran’s relatively anemic military forces could not hope to stop the inevitable onslaught from a massive, sustained, and technologically superior US air and naval campaign.  Iranian nuclear, military, and any associated facilities (both economic and political) would lay in absolute ruins. 

Suppressing Maureen Dowd

 
 

"I agree with Maureen Dowd in nearly all of her criticism of the foreign policy team around Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. In specific I agree with her (a) that since there is so little there, there to Romney's own expressed foreign policy views, it is fair to observe that he has surrounded himself with advisors whose well-established past opinions are now reflected in his policy statements, and (b) that those advisors were deeply involved in leading the United States into its costliest foreign-policy error of at least the past 40 years, the invasion of Iraq. Some of the people who fit categories (a) and (b) are Jewish. Some of them are not -- notably including Dick Cheney, who still speaks up regularly to disparage the current administration; Condoleezza Rice (despite her successful service as Secretary of State), who lambasted the administration at the Republican convention; John Bolton; and many others. - Therefore I really disagree with Jeff Goldberg's casting of Dowd's column as one millimeter away from outright anti-Semitism, and I agree with the counter-arguments by Kevin Drum at Mother Jones and by another friend and former colleague, Andrew Sullivan, at the Daily Dish." James Fallows

------------------------------------

I know a little something about being "suppressed," having been there myself.  When I used to do foreign policy media appearances, I several times experienced the phenomenon of journalists contacting me to say that their editors or producers or network corporate executives had been contacted by prominent neocons (most of whom worked at right wing think tanks) who told these people various untruths about me. The most common one was that I was or had been a FARA registered agent of the Syrian or Lebanese government and that if the media outlet wanted to quote me, etc. they should state that I was a foreign country's agent.  On one occasion a reporter called me from L.A. to angrily demand why I had not told him that I was a foreign agent.  On another occasion the director of a major Washington "think tank" (an immigrant from abroad) called to demand that I confess to my "agentry."  When I said I would add it to my CV he said he was happy and hung up.

None of this was true.  At one point I ran the family foundation of a rich Middle Easterner.  The foundation contributed money to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City for the purpose of funding studies to support the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process.  Henry Siegman was in charge of the process.  The resulting papers were given to the State Department and NSC to assist the process.  The FARA law specifies that if a foreign entity does anything that seeks to influence US foreign policy then the Americans involved must register under FARA.  Corporate counsel advised me that to be in strict compliance with the law I should register under FARA.  I  took his advice and registered as the "agent" (like any business agent) of the named individual who was the proprietor of the foundation.  I was never the "agent" of anything but this man for whom I worked. I de-registered when I ceased to work for the man in 2006.

On another occasion a prominent civilian historian of military/strategic matters confronted me in the Green Room of the Newshour to say that I must be  an Anti-semite because I used the term "neocon" and according to this fellow that was mere code for "foreign policy Jew."

So, I know a little something about suppression of freedom of expression and press freedom.  The problem with people who do such things is that they act without regard to any sort of code of honor, and indifferent to the truth or falsity of their charges.  They are concerned only with controlling "the narrative."  Nothing else matters to them.

Maureen Dowd got a taste of it.  They will continue to pursue her.  pl  

 

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/maureen-dowd-is-not-an-anti-semite/262485/

(irony alert) Natanyahu on Iranian fanatics

Why not "containment?"

David Gregory the MTP man asked Bibi that today.  Good question, why not?  The response was that the Iranian leaders hold their fanatical Shia Islamic beliefs to have much more importance than the national survival of their country.  One can only ask what the evidence is for that.  They supply Hizbullah in Lebanon?  I don't see a lot of shooting out of Lebanon into Israel since 2006.  They supply their Syrian ally?  Israel used to supply its Iranian ally.  That was the basis for the Iran-Contra Affair.  Bibi mentioned Iranian suicide bombs and said they were wide spread.  Where is that - exactly?

Why not "containment?"

Why should the US not have "containment" for its policy in regard to Iran?  Does the United States also believe that Iran is ruled by madmen?  Do Iranian naval units rush upon US vessels in the Gulf to blow themselves up?  Have the Iranians scuttled vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to block the oil trade?  Has Iran invaded Iraq since we left?  No, then why not "containment?"

Towards the end Gregory told Bibi that he (Bibi) was the "leader of the Jewish people."  Is that really true?  Is that what Gregory meant to say?  If it is, then one must ask if he is David Gregory's  leader?  pl

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/vp/49047122#49047122

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2012/09/15/world/middleeast/15reuters-iran-nuclear-israel.html?_r=1&ref=world

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-puzzled-by-a-red-line-demand/2012/09/14/d10a5474-fe88-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story.html

 

Of allies, foreign aid and statecraft

The US was a witness to the Egypt-Israel Treaty of Peace.  To make that treaty "stick" we have given Egypt around 2 billion dollars a year ever since.  This subvention is a bribe by another name.  The Israelis receive even larger sums.  Why we need to "bribe" the Israelis is a mystery.  These charitable contributions have become a tradition in both those countries.  Neither party can deal with the thought that our charity might come to an end.  Egypt has never done anything of importance for the US.  They sent two ground divisions to the First Gulf War.  They stated in advance that they would not fight and they did not.  Syria sent a division and they did not fight either.  Egypt interrogated some AQ people for us.  These "services"  sum up Egypt's contributions to US welfare.  There are bi-lateral agreements with Egypt with regard to equipment sales and traing.  None of these obligate either party to go to war for the other.  Such relationships are not alliances.  NATO is an alliance.  Our relationship with Egypt is nothing like the NATO alliance or any other real alliance. 

BHO was correct.  Egypt is not an ally of the US.  The most that can be said of Egypt post Mubarak is, as the president said, that the country id not yet our enemy as Nasser's Egypt was our enemy.  BTW, international relationships among countries are not limited to manichaean dualities of "ally" and "enemy."  Most countries in the world should properly be described as "out there,"  IOW neither friend nor foe.

In political international studies-speak, countries, "out there" are routinely described as "allies."  How stupid this is.

What BHO did by declining to call Mursi's Egypt an ally was to put Egypt on notice of the simple fact that the US is not obligated to give Egypt anything.  The NB's retreat from confrontation is the result.  pl

 

Bibi campaigns for Romney

"Opposition leader Shaul Mofaz (Kadima) blamed Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for what he called the deteriorating relationship between the US and Israel, in a special meeting during the Knesset’s summer recess on Wednesday.

“Mr. Prime Minister, tell me, who is our biggest enemy, the US or Iran? Who do you want replaced, [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad or [US President Barack] Obama?” Mofaz asked in the plenum. “How low are you prepared to drag relations with our closest ally?”

 According to the opposition leader, world leaders have not turned their backs to Israel, but they do not trust Netanyahu. "  Jpost

-------------------------------

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/ns/msnbc_tv-morning_joe/#49001490

 

 

Shaul Mofaz is a former chief of Staff of the IDF.  He is of Iranian extraction. 

There was a remarkable discussion on Morning Joe today.  This discussion was on the subject of Natanyahu's gross interference in the US presidential election and his attempts to control US foreign policy and armed forces operations.  The Israeli/Likud side was represented by Donny Deutsch the vulgarian real estate mogul and Andrea Mitchell , notorious for her thinly concealed advocacy of Israeli positions..  The US side was represented by Lawrence O'Donnell and Joe Klein.  O'Donnell and Klein made it clear that they believe that Natanyahu is making an open "play" to elect Romney who Natanyahu thinks is his "bitch."  They also stated that Natanyahu seeks to control American foreign policy so that he can simply "order" US forces to attack Iran.  pl

 

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=284775

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/world/middleeast/united-states-and-israel-engage-in-public-spat-over-iran-policy.html?pagewanted=all

"The Triumph and Tragedy of Greater Israel" Henry Siegman

"The Middle East peace process is dead. More precisely, the two-state solution is dead; the peace process may well go on indefinitely if this Israeli government has its way.

The two-state solution did not die a natural death. It was strangulated as Jewish settlements in the West Bank were expanded and deepened by successive Israeli governments in order to prevent the emergence of a viable Palestinian state. The settlement project has achieved its intended irreversibility, not only because of its breadth and depth but also because of the political clout of the settlers and their supporters within Israel who have both ideological and economic stakes in the settlements’ permanence"  Henry Siegman

http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/the-triumph-greater-israel-7438

The Democrats ignored massive dissent on Jerusalem. - Reason.com

"Although Democrats adopted a plank supporting the constitutional overturning of Citizens United for the sake of democracy, they managed to ignore their own party rules and delegate voices this afternoon when amending the party platform. DNC Chairman Antonio Villaraigosa announced the party required a two-thirds vote to amend the party platform. However, minutes after failing to reach the threshold after three separate votes, he awkwardly moved forward and declared the two-thirds threshold had been reached."  Reason.com

--------------------

So, the Democrats love democracy but.... not really.  The more Villaraigosa repeated the voice vote, the louder were the "nays."  He's a good machine politician and so, in the end, he ignored the dissent on the "we love Israel" planks in the platform.  As he said on MJ today, there were no registered complaints.  He is lucky.  Any such complaints would have forced a roll call vote.  How embarassing that would have been.

"Every family has its ups and downs."  Quotation? 

The "down side' for Democrats in their relentless quest for diversity is the diversity itself.  Traditional Democratic support groups like Jews and especially Zionist Jews have less and less "clout" in the face of the indifference of the multitude of other groupd for whom Zionism is just another tribal nationalism seen through the anti-colonial lens of the predominately "left" orientation of today's Democratic Party.

The platform committee tried to walk away from the worshipful attitude towards Israel that Zionist money and media power still dictate.  Then the delegates tried to vote down the platform amendments.  AIPAC won that vote.  How long will that continue?  How long will US policy be dictated in Tel Aviv?  pl

http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2012/09/05/what-bibi-wants/

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/05/dnc-chair-villaraigosa-declares-super-ma/print

Democratic platform shifts on Israel - Washpost

"... change to the 2008 Democratic platform, which stated that Jerusalem “is and will remain” Israel’s capital. The line has been removed from the 2012 Democratic platform. In addition, the 2012 platform does not say that Palestinian refugees or their descendants will only be allowed to resettle inside a future Palestinian state, not property inside Israel. The 2008 platform made clear they would only be allowed to resettle inside a future Palestinian state – not Israel — effectively rejecting what has come to be known as the Palestinian “right of return.” Washpost

---------------------------------

This is a major change, and a gauntlet flung down in the face of AIPAC.  Eric Cantor is, of course,  whining about this.

IMO, this will have no effect on the outcome of the presidential election and that is what Obama must think as well.

If that is so, then BHO's second term would a "racy course" for Israel and people like Cantor.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/09/04/democratic-platform-shifts-on-israel/

Israel looks for face saving over Iran

"Pointing to a possible way out, Netanyahu has since said that more explicit international warnings could prevent war, indicating he wanted the United States to provide Tehran with unambiguous options to halt its nuclear activity or face war. "The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we'll have conflict," he said on Monday. Positions are likely to be clarified at an expected meeting late this month between U.S. President Barack Obama and Netanyahu when the Israeli leader addresses the U.N. General Assembly in New York. "That will be a crucial encounter. They will have to reach an understanding there. At the end of the day, you do reach an understanding, always," said Eiland, who had numerous dealings with Washington during his time as national security adviser. Reuters

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No,  the US does not have to give Israel anything that it does not want to give it.  What is revealed here is that Israel is a client of the United States and not the other way around.  All that is needed to make that "stick" is to continue to "discipline" the client.

General (Ret.) Michael Hayden, former director of CIA, has also told the Israelis that they lack the ability to successfully attack Iran.  This opinion seems to be universal in the US Government.

On the other hand, if the Israelis wish, let them show the US (us) that we are wrong and that they can pull this off by themselves.  Let them show us that they can do it ALONE.

It would be interesting to learn what sort of evolution in Iranian- Pakistani relations such an Israeli attack would provoke.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/04/us-israel-iran-idUSBRE8830QO20120904

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-57505379-503543/ex-cia-chief-michael-hayden-only-the-u.s.-can-strike-iran-nuclear-sites-effectively/

"Ya'alon: US is undermining military threat against Iran" JP

""There are many cracks in the ring closing tighter on Iran. We criticize this," he said, also singling out UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon for traveling to Tehran this week.

Ya'alon's statements came a day after Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs Martin Dempsey said that he did not want to be "complicit" if Israel chose to strike Iran's nuclear program, positing that a premature attack would dissolve the international pressure on the Islamic Republic.

Speaking to journalists in London, Dempsey said an attack would "clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran's nuclear program," but added that the "international coalition" pressuring Iran "could be undone if it was attacked prematurely".

"I don't want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it," he added."  JP

--------------------------------------------

Martin Dempsey is either a brave man who understands his oath to the Republic or he is fronting for the BHO administration's real policy.  Maybe it is both.

Natanyahu is coming to Washington to crack the whip over BHO before the election.  According to this JP story he will demand a firm commitment as to a US attack on Iran, dates and all.  IMO the implied threat will be to throw the weight of the AIPAC/Israel political forces behind Romney in the election if his will is not done.

IMO BHO should defy him and go on national televion to give the details of the threat and blackmail from the leader of a small country that is deeply in debt to us both financially and strategically.  Part of the broadcast should be an offer to release to the media, all of the media, the tapes of the Natanyahu meeting.  pl

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=283363

 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/americas-most-senior-general-warns-against-rash-actionon-syria-and-iran-8096881.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/30/israeli-attack-iran-not-stop-nuclear?newsfeed=true

 

 

Intelligence community paper on Israel?

 "... a paper entitled “Preparing For A Post Israel Middle East”, an 82-page analysis that concludes that the American national interest in fundamentally at odds with that of Zionist Israel. The authors conclude that Israel is currently the greatest threat to US national interests because its nature and actions prevent normal US relations  with  Arab and  Muslim countries and, to a growing degree, the wider international community.

The study was commissioned by the US Intelligence Community comprising 16 American intelligence agencies with an annual budget in excess of $ 70 billion. The IC includes the Departments of the Navy, Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Coast Guard, Defense Intelligence Agency, Departments of Energy, Homeland Security, State, Treasure, Drug Enforcement Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Agency, National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, National Reconnaissance Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency commissioned the study."  Foreign Policy Journal

------------------------------------------------

I don't know anything of this journal but such a paper seems an improbability.  To propose such a paper would be a career ending move.  To write it with the conclusions stated would be enough to ensure banishment from government and a hue and cry.

Entertaining though...  pl

http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/08/28/us-preparing-for-a-post-israel-middle-east/

Rachel Corrie's murder and Israeli "justice"

The State Department says that the Corrie family has a" right" to appeal the decisions of Israeli courts that the IDF was not to blame in this young woman's death.

This American girl was taking part in a protest against IDF demolitions of Palesinian homes when she made the error of mistaking the IDF for a civilized army.  She tried to face down the bulldozer driver.  In response he ran over and killed her.

Judge Gershon says the act was justified because this was a "war time situation."  Really?  Really?  Israel by its own estimation has been at wasr since 1948.  That would seem to imdicate that they feel justified in killing anyone, anywhere, any time if they think it is a good idea.

The State Department says that the family has the right to appeal under Israeli law.  I suggest the Corries come home and try their luck in US courts.  There must be justice somewhere.  pl

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4274304,00.html

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-court-u-s-activist-rachel-corrie-s-death-was-an-accident.premium-1.461156

IRMEP on Israeli Espionage at Yuma Proving Ground

"In 1992 the FBI discovered the Weizmann Institute of Science of Rehovot, Israel penetrated secure U.S. computer systems at the Yuma Proving Ground with the help of a U.S. computer science student. The FBI investigation further documented evidence that Weizmann was engaged in clandestine nuclear weapons research supported by its U.S. fundraising arm, the "American Committee for the Weizmann Institute." Yet on May 18, 1993 the Justice Department Office of Intelligence Policy and Review ordered the Assistant FBI director to terminate their Weizmann Institute counterintelligence investigation. IRmep fought for public release of the Justice Department termination order via a Mandatory Declassification Review. On August 21, 2012 the National Security Division claimed it had declassified the memo, but then refused to publicly release it. Such a tactical move keeps the memo from being publicly reviewed to see what justification (or lack thereof) existed for calling off the Weizmann investigation. If the memo isn't classified, it cannot be reviewed for declassification release by the outside Interagency Security Classifications Appeals Panel (ISCAP). If the entire memo is protected by a number of dubiously applied "privacy" and law enforcement exceptions, the public will never be able to fit the investigation into a larger pattern of suspicious DOJ forbearance into conventional and nuclear arms related smuggling, quashed espionage investigations of AIPAC, clandestine PR campaigns and Israel lobby attempts to subvert the U.S. electoral process. Although Mark Bradley--who issued the Justice Department National Security Division MDR decision--asserts it can be appealed to the Department Review Committee , the final decision will likely be made by the DRC's chairman...Mark Bradley.

Israel Lobby Archive DOJ denial letter:

 http://www.IRmep.org/ILA/weizmann/08212012weizmann_denial.pdf

IRmep appeal and challenge:

 http://www.IRmep.org/ILA/weizmann/08242012appealv4.pdf

Israel Lobby Archive of Weizmann Institute investigation:

http://irmep.org/ila/weizmann/default.asp

Is there a US policy in the Islamic World?

I think that is a valid question:

- In Egypt we support consolidation of power by an obviously Muslim Brotherhood run government.  To that end, HC and her deputy, Bill Burns,  have traveled to Cairo to threaten and cajole the Egyptian military into accepting what the Egyptians know will become an Islamist state with all that promises for women, Christians, homosexuals, etc.

- In Afghanistan we are engaged in a very long, very costly war against an Islamist guerrilla army that has the support of many in that country.  It is claimed that the Afghan soldiers and police who are killing our men are merely "disaffected." Yes, but their disaffection is largely the result of their anti-kaffir xenophobia.  We are now in the process of abandoning the failed COIN strategy in favor of a CT based strategy that I advocated three years ago, but that was then.  This is now.  The time has probaby passed.

-In Iraq, we created a government that rejected any real strategic relationship with us and now conspires with Iran to halp Iran evade the sanctions regime.  But, we still say we love them.

- In Tunisia, the Islamist element in the new government is seeking to erase French culture in the country.  We look fondly upon them.

- In Yemen we directly assist the new Yemeni government in seeking the annhilation of the small Sunni Wahhabi insurgent movement.  In so doing we align ourselves with the Sunni majority of the former PDRY against the Fiver Shia population of the North who are thought to be somehow related to Iran.  They are not.

- Iran.  Well, I won't even try to deal with that here.  We await Israel's initiative.

- Saudi Arabia.  We await their desires as well.

- Syria.  We support a Sunni Wahhabi led, financed and armed insurgency against a government that has traditionally been hostile to Islamist groups.

What's the connecting thread here?

Don't embarrass yourself by saying oil and Israel.

"It is a tale told by an ifdiot."  pl

Skinny dipping at Tiberias

The nonsense in the media about a congressman taking a nighttime dip in the  Sea of Galilee (Lake Tiberias) would be funny if it were not so stupid.

This "incident" took place a year ago after a group dinner attended by a gaggle of members of the US House of Representartives embarked on a propaganda trip run by AIPAC.

Lake Tiberias is one of Israel's major resort areas.  Water sports are the "name of the game" for other than Christian pilgrims.  Modern hotels are everywhere.  The city of Tiberias has long been an R&R center of UN troops on duty in the region.  They come there to relax, drink and make use of the army of Russian and Ukrainian prostitutes who inhabit the town.

For the Christian pilgrims the Israeli ministry of Religious Tourism has opened a hiking path called the "Jesus Trail. "  So, everyone is "covered.  pl

Supposed Israeli campaign plan for Iran

"... an Israeli strike on Iran will include a "barrage of tens of ballistic missiles" launched from Israeli territory towards Iran, as well as a barrage of "hundreds of cruise missiles" which will "pound command and control systems, research and development facilities, and the residences of senior personnel in the nuclear and missile development apparatus. "Intelligence gathered over years will be utilized to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks in these fields," according to the blogger. Silverstein says the attack will open with an unprecedented cyber-attack which will take the internet, telephones, radio and television, communications satellites, and fiber optic cables leading to and from critical installations—including underground missile bases at Khorramabad and Isfahan - out of action. "The electrical grid throughout Iran will be paralyzed and transformer stations will absorb severe damage from carbon fiber munitions which are finer than a human hair, causing electrical short circuits whose repair requires their complete removal. This would be a Sisyphean task in light of cluster munitions which would be dropped, some time-delayed and some remote-activated through the use of a satellite signal," the blogger claims. According to the document, the missiles will strike their targets—some exploding above ground like those striking the nuclear reactor at Arak–which is intended to produce plutonium and tritium—and the nearby heavy water production facility; the nuclear fuel production facilities at Isfahan and facilities for enriching uranium-hexaflouride. Others would explode under-ground, as at the Fordo facility. Following the first wave of attacks, Silverstein says, an Israeli radar satellite will pass over Iran and transfer information directly to war planes making their way covertly toward Iran. "  YNET

------------------------------------------

This strikes me as an enormous conceit, the fevered imaginings of a military power that has never attempted anything of this magniitude.  I judge such an operation to be beyond Israel's capacity.  They have no idea where all the Iranian nuclear facilities are located.   Do they imagine that the desired degree of damage will be accomplished in one set of attacks?  In the spirit of the YNET's comment on General Dempsey's Irish ancestry, I might observe that this level of grandiosity may be endemic in Israeli thinking.  pl

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4269110,00.html

"US punched Bibi, Barak in the face" YNET

"Dempsey was painfully clear. He basically said that Israel should not disregard the opinions of its top security officials, stop the constant chatter on Iran and refrain from any acts that may have an adverse effect on the global economy. The general also meant to tell Israel that it mustn't believe that Netanyahu has any control over the US because he has friends in the Republican Party. Dempsey laid down the facts: Israel is not America, it does not possess the same capabilities, and if Netanyahu and Barak continue wreaking havoc – Israel won’t have America either. It will take a while before we will be able to gauge the depth of the current crisis between Israel and the US (and between Netanyahu and Obama). Washington made a strategic decision to show Israel who is the mentor and who is the protégé. The US hit Israel's most sensitive nerve: The pride in its military power. But it appears that the US had no other choice. After weeks of belligerent headlines, President Obama had enough of Netanyahu's inclination to play with fire. We should start getting used to it." YNET  

-------------------------------

I think that the writers description of Dempsey's "Irish descent and character" are equivelnt to other such references that could be made to Jews, Blacks, etc. This is entirely inapropriate.

I suppose the reaction in the Israeli/AIPAC/Republican world will be to intensify their campaign of undermining General Dempsey in the press and among the creatures of the Washington/New York underworld. 

Was this a statement of great import as YNET thinks?  I certainly hope so.  pl 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4269041,00.html

"Israeli demands from Obama " (sic)

  

"Another demand is a noticeable reinforcement of American forces in the Persian Gulf and emphasizing, mainly in the press, Washington's capabilities to stop Iran's nuclear program. The US has a substantial amount of forces in the Middle East and Central Asia, but many of them are busy with the war in Afghanistan and the piracy off the Horn of Africa. Moreover, some of the American, French and British forces in the Gulf are exposed to sea missiles, mines and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' small assault boats. The concentration of US naval forces in the Indian Ocean, off Iran's shores – would demonstrate that Washington is determined to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and is prepared to strike if necessary." ynet news

-------------------------------------

Here we have a clear statement of the demands being made on the United States by Israel as "blackmail."  pl

 

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4268683,00.html

"... Don’t rely on us to finish the job in Iran" Baloney!

"Netanyahu is set to meet the president — in Washington, rather than as previously thought at the UN General Assembly in New York — between September 28 and October 1. The prime minister, Channel 10 News reported Monday, could not possibly order an Israeli strike on Iran prior to that meeting, where the Iranian threat would presumably be the main subject of discussion. Neither could he order an attack before his tentatively scheduled address to the General Assembly a few days earlier, on September 27 — his last appeal to the international community for firmer action to thwart Iran, according to Channel 10.

The timeframe for an Israeli attack, the report suggested, would thus be sometime between October 2 and the presidential elections on November 6. Immediately after the US elections, Israel could presumably not defy a newly elected president. And fairly soon after that, it might be too late for Israel to stop Iran because of the Iranians’ progress and the limitations of Israel’s military capacity."  Times of Israel

--------------------------------------------------

I see that Amnon Shahak, a former chief of staff of the IDF, has declared himself oppposed to an Israeli unilateral attack on Iran this autumn.   IMO he wa the best and most capable of all the chiefs of staff of the IDF.

After all the years of waiting for Israel to make up its mind about its intentions in regard to Iran, I am as weary as the rest of you concerning the possibility.

Nevertheless, it looks like this might really be the time if not yet the hour. 

Natanyahu and Barak (the odd couple of Israeli politics) seem to believe that they must act before the US presidential election or loose their (and Israel's) freedom of action perhaps forever.  They reason, as does this article, that both presidential candidates will be compelled by some magic force lurking in the water supply to be the first to urge or order the US armed forces into action essentially under Israeli operational control.  What else can you call it when the Israelis would dictate the time, place and nature of a war in which US forces would participate.

What would be the limits of US participation in such an air and naval war?  Are combined plans being written?  If they are not, then what would follow an Israeli attack would be a chaos of rushed actions against a substantial target set in a large country.  Israel's air and missile assets would soon have "shot their bolt' through combat casualties, mechanical attrition, exhaustion of air crews, etc.  The Iranian nuclear complex is not completely known to US intelligence.  If it is not known to us, it is certainly not known to the Israelis.  They derive much of their knowledge from US intelligence.  Israel's ability to generate sorties over Iran would decline rapidly after the first strikes.  Where would their emergency recovery airfields be?  The Caucasus?  This is a fantasy.  The Gulf?  Another fantasy.  Iraq would not allow the US to use its airfields for such a campaign.  All this would quickly leave the US in the situation of having to wage alone a protracted air war against Iran.  the US economy is still a mess.  We are still engaged in Afghanistan and bleeding money there.

If BHO finds himself faced with this menace by Bibi, he would be wise to refuse to accept Bibi's demands and if necessary leave the ensuing war to be fought by a Romney administration.  They and their AIPAC/neocon controllers relish the idea.  Let them enjoy it.  pl

 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-message-to-israel-dont-rely-on-us-to-finish-the-job-in-iran/

IRMEP Documents on Israeli theft of nuclear materials

On July 17 the Interagency Security Classification Appeals Panel (ISCAP) agreed to review highly classified documents from the LBJ administration for public release. The top-secret documents purportedly deal with the CIA's initial urgent warnings to President Johnson that Israel was diverting vast quantities of weapons-grade nuclear material from NUMEC, as well as the president and NSC's strategy for dealing with the crisis. While the CIA has denied all previous Freedom of Information Act and Mandatory Declassification Review requests for NUMEC-related documents, the ISCAP has the authority to overrule, as it has done in the majority of release cases. A successful document release could allow Parks and Apollo residents to finally seek hefty court-ordered damages from the true perpetrators (or their estates) who have long been shielded from the consequences of their lucrative crimes at NUMEC--Zalman Shapiro, NUMEC's board members and the Israeli government....

Israel Lobby Archive file:

 http://www.irmep.org/ILA/numec/courtdocs/07182012iscap_confirmation.pdf

Extensive analysis in Antiwar.com today:

http://original.antiwar.com/smith-grant/2012/08/10/us-israel-nuclear-fronts-accountability-drives-fall-apart/

Related Business Insider article excerpt:

"How Israel Received Weapons-Grade Nuclear Material from a US Company by Michael Kelley http://www.businessinsider.com/the-explosive-story-of-how-israel-received-weapons-grade-nuclear-material-from-a-us-company-in-the-sixties-2012-8 ...On July 19, 1969, U.S. National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger wrote the following about Israel's nuclear weapons program: "There is circumstantial evidence that some fissionable material available for Israel's weapons development was illegally obtained from the United States by about 1965." About the same time that NUMEC sustained unaccountable losses of HEU-235, the FBI notes, NUMEC was developing and manufacturing food irradiators for Israel. According to Smith there is no single smoking gun that Shapiro diverted HEU-235 to Israel --but many smoking shell-casings. They include: -- In 1965 a NUMEC employee walked near the NUMEC loading dock and encountered people he could not identify loading cans about the size of HEU-235 canisters onto a ship that was headed to Israel. The employee detailed the event in 1980 when interviewed by FBI agents. Based on the number of reported canisters, Smith estimates up to 346 lbs of U-235 could have been shipped to Israel in this single incident. -- In 1968 NUMEC invited and received Israel's elite nuclear weapons development officials and its top spy under the cover of being "thermo electric generator specialists." They included Avraham Hermoni (technical director of Israel's nuclear bomb project), Ephraim Biegun (head of the Israeli technical department of Israel's Secret Service from 1960-70) and Rafael Eitan (long-time Mossad and LAKAM operative who later directed spy Jonathan Pollard's spy program against the U.S.). Smith notes that in 1986 Middle East analyst Anthony Cordesman said there "is no conceivable reason for Eitan to have gone [to NUMEC] but for the nuclear material." --In June 1978 Department of Energy investigators told former Atomic Energy Commissioner (AEC) Glenn T. Seaborg that traces of Portsmouth U-235 -- the government-owned material primarily delivered to NUMEC for processing into fuel -- had been picked up in Israel. Seaborg, who frequently defended Shapiro during his time as AEC chief, later refused to be interviewed by FBI investigators..."

Read more:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-explosive-story-of-how-israel-received-weapons-grade-nuclear-material-from-a-us-company-in-the-sixties-2012-8#ixzz23FSmSS9K

Maybe October will be the cruelest month...

"Alon Ben-Meir, a professor of international relations at New York University's Center for Global Affairs, said Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak used the American visits to send a message to Tehran that Israel won't hesitate to take unilateral action. Ben-Meir cautions U.S. and other officials against seeing the Israeli threats as mere posturing, pointing out the profound national security concerns that shape Israeli defense policy and the country's unshakable faith that Washington will come to its rescue if a strike against Iran triggers retaliation by Tehran or its well-armed allies in the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militia. "I don’t think Israel is bluffing entirely. There is an element of exaggerating its readiness to act and likelihood of winning. But many advisors to Prime Minister Netanyahu are saying that if he waits six or eight months, they may end up unable to do anything significant in terms of damage" to nuclear facilities that Iran has been moving underground to protect them from airstrikes, Ben-Meir said." LA Times

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Once again.  Israel, go for it!  If you think that you can't live with technologically advanced Muslim countries then hit Iran.  You go girl, er, country... You show them wogs what their place is...  at your feet, right?  After all, aren't you God's chosen people?  The stupid Americans will come in and clean up after you by finishing off the enemies of God.  And you better do it before November, 'cause Obama might win and then, he might be harder to control with campaign money and the threat of losing the election in a few places like Florida.  Romney, well, if only you could be sure...  pl  

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/08/iran-not-yet-on-verge-of-obtaining-nuclear-weapons-experts-say.html

Israel spies on us. Really?

"The CIA station chief opened the locked box containing the sensitive equipment
he used from his home in Tel Aviv, Israel, to communicate with CIA headquarters
in Virginia, only to find that someone had tampered with it. He sent word to his
superiors about the break-in."  AP

-------------------------------------

Hey!  They are a foreign country right?  No?  Oh.  pl

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_US_ISRAEL_SPYING?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-28-09-25-08