Sic Semper Tyrannis

Petraeus Agonistes II

 

Don't cry over this guy.  He has had a hell of a run.  IMO someone  "dropped a dime" on him with the FBI. Once that happened an investigation into the limits of his lover's access to classified information through her relationship with him was inevitable.  The FBI has the power to investigate anyone in the US Government, including the director of the CIA, and they relish the responsibility.  It is in the grand tradition of J. Edgar Hoover.  A secondary consideration that is unappreciated by civilians is that as a retired US Army officer Petraeus is still subject to UCMJ and its prohibition of adultery, a crime under UCMJ punishable by a dishonorable discharge and a year in prison.  It is unlikely that this would happen but it is still the law.  If you don't like that, tell Congress to change the law.

Who would have "squealed" on him over his paramour?  There are various candidates so far; her husband, someone at CIA who did not appreciate everything he did, someone or some group in the US Army.

He was never much liked in the Army.  "Clever" is a term of art in the Army for someone "foxy,"  slippery and politically adroit.  He was always clever.  At West Point, which is, after all, a college like all others, the appreciation of teachers can be carefully cultivated by students.  He excelled at that.  Every WP graduate becomes an Army officer.  Relationships established with officer staff there affect the rest of an officer's career.  Petraeus married the daughter of the superintendant (president) of the place.  This officer was a major general.  Later he was a four star general.  Throughout his career Petraeus carefully maneuvered to maximize his potential for promotion.  He has a terrible reputation in the Army for egomania smoothly concealed beneath the appearance of the warrior scholar.  He can and has charmed all, or almost all.  His fluency in the English language and his ability to interact with congressmen and the press are superb.

He was not the originator of the armed forces current doctrine on COIN.  He did not triumph in Iraq employing that doctrine.  The improvement in the security situation there happened because he was clever enough to accept marine and Special Forces sponsorship of the "awakening" of the Sunni Arabs to the fact that they did not wish to live under Al-Qa'ida rule.  This led to the creation of the "Sons of Iraq" who, for a time, virtually wiped out the Sunni jihadis.  This gave the Shia Arab dominated government a chance to at least partially assert its power in some parts of the country.  This serendipitous set of events was carefully parlayed in the US media into the creation of an image of Petraeus as the heir of George Marshall.  Iraq is slowly becoming a satrapy of Iran.  Should Petraeus have credit for that as well?

His success" in Iraq led to sending him to Afghanistan to apply the supposedly victorious doctrine of COIN there as well.  We see the reult.

As I said, don't grieve for him.  He had a long run and will now make a lot of money somehow.  He is clever.  pl

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83668_Page2.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Petraeus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_Broadwell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Military_Academy

 

 

Petraeus Agonistes

OK.  Open for business on this until tomorrow when I will have worked up enough bile over this to write a piece in this post.    pl

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/09/covert_affairs

 

 

 

Electoral College Results by Population

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

In comments to the recent post on what happened to the White Vote, TTG asked about the electoral college results map adjusted for actual population density.  Its an excellent question, because what we have is that the portions of the non population adjusted map show a LOT of red compared to the blue, the reality is that a LOT more people live in the blue areas than the red.  

For instance in this map from Mark Newman at U Michigan's Center for the Study of Complex Systems shows the red/blue state map by population density (this is NOT the electoral college map, that's below):

Below you can find several maps that adjust for population density and see what I mean.  Links back to the original site below them.

2012 Electoral College Results Map from the Denver Post (showing FL for President Obama as projected):

2012 Electoral Map by population density from Mark Newman at U Michigan:

Here are the 2008 results adjusted for population, also from Mark Newman:

If you click through he's also got this down to the county level for both years with very good explanations of how he's done the weighting for density and what it means.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

New Athenaeum Post- Pets And Hurricane "Sandy"

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/10/aspca-how-to-prepare-your-pets-for-hurricane-sandy.html

The Katrina (or name a half dozen other recent natural disasters) photos like this one never fade from memory.  Please do feel free to contribute your own suggestions for keeping pets safe from Sandy in this comment thread or over on TA.

-Maureen Lang

"It's time for us to stop being terrorized" Paul Mulshine

"The media — and the leaders of both parties — are not doing us any favors by overusing the term "terrorist," said Pat Lang, an author and former Vietnam Green Beret who has years of experience doing intelligence work in the Mideast.

"It implies a kind of national hysteria over the idea that anyone who attacks us is a truly fearsome opponent," Lang said. "The whole al Qaeda thing has been hyped to just ridiculous levels.""  Mulshine

------------------------------------

Absolutely!  Think back to what a really big war was like.  pl

http://blog.nj.com/njv_paul_mulshine/2012/10/its_time_for_us_to_stop_being.html

Benghazi fever on the right

It is being said over and over again that the Obama Administration deliberately obfuscated what happened in the attack on the consulate in Benghazi.  Day by day a trickle of old e-mails, partial early reports and developing assessments are hailed as "proof' that something shameful happened and is happening in the US Government, something hidden.

The truth is that early reports and judgments of traumatic, sudden events like this are usually incorrect and need to be developed and "straightened out" with the passage of time and completed investigations.

Complicating the situation in Benghazi was the location there of a CIA base covered as other than that.  These people were working on the very problems that eventually resulted in the attack and the deaths.  Not surprisingly, the CIA has not been desirous of the revelation of the presence and status of its employees and so the declarations to the press have not been accurate in that regard.

None of this matters to the "Friends of Trump" 1% crowd who will build any kind of sandcastle that they can that might influence a few more cretins in the battleground states to act out their racism in the polling booth.

The media is cooperating in this psywar campaign.  Does this mean that they have decided Romney will win?  pl

 

"Debate: Between the lines" by De Borchgrave

"There is nothing the United States can do to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from taking Egypt back to the religious dark ages. We can talk up the rights of women and the need to protect religious minorities but withholding U.S. aid would simply move the Muslim Brotherhood extremists to sever the peace treaty with Israel. The Salafists, a minority radical party with 25 percent of the seats in Parliament, are urging jobless youngsters to go to Syria to join jihad against the Assad regime. Iraq-based al-Qaida terrorists are already in this civil war. Hence the reluctance of the U.S. and NATO allies to become involved on the same side as transnational terrorists." De Borchgrave

---------------------------------

For all you inhabitants of Sunnybrook Farm out there, this pretty well sums things up.  pl

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/10/24/Commentary-Debate-Between-the-lines/UPI-24451351075768/#ixzz2ADz8ogq4  

 

An Expert Artisan's View: Ephraim Halevy on Iran and the Foreign Policy Stakes in the US Presidential Election

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

On Sunday, the Al-Monitor published a very in depth and timely interview between reporter Laura Rozen and former Mossad Director and Israeli National Security Advisor Ephraim Halevy.**  The interview covers many important foreign policy issues, specifically dealing with Iran, how to approach one's adverseries, and the impact of Israel's concerns with Iran on the US presidential campaign and US foreign policy.

Some of the most important take aways were his remarks about how one should deal with one's adversaries:

    " Therefore, I realized that dialogue with an enemy is essential. There is nothing to     lose. Although the claim was, if you talk to them, you legitimize them But by not     talking to them, you don't de-legitimate them. So this convinced me, that we all     have been very superficial in dealing with our enemies. [...]

    Not everything you try succeeds. But you have to be willing to try. If you fail 10 times,     and succeed once, the success outweighs the failures.

    What happened: In order to meet public opinion, both Israel and the US governments     have tied our own hands. There is a law [...] which prohibits US officials from talking     to Hamas [...] In the end, you create an inherent disadvantage for yourself."

He also has some really important thoughts in regards to leadership at the strategic level in regards to operations, such as the one to kill/capture bin Laden:

     "I think nobody who has been involved in ordering the use of force can forget the     angst, the days and nights of concern, as to what and how it can be done.

    Romney has said, Anybody could have decided to finish bin Laden. Even [Jimmy]     Carter. This again  was a mistaken concept. President Obama didn’t just decide [one     day to kill bin Laden]. The operation to end the life of bin Laden necessitated     multiple points of decision by him. I know from operations I have been involved with     on a smaller scale.

    They are very intricate. You don’t just give the order and wait in your office for     commanders to come three months later and say it’s done. No. This kind of operation,     which is accident prone, hands on operation, one has to make one decision after the     other […] It took courage and cool headedness and leadership. Anyone who says it     was an easy thing to decide, doesn’t understand what he’s talking about. [Such     comments] show a total lack of understanding of what this kind of operation means.

    Once I was in charge of an operation and Netanyahu was Prime Minister. One day,     because of the intricacy of what we were doing, I talked to him 10 times on the phone     […] Ten times. It was a Friday, a day I will not forget.

    This kind of operation, every minute, an issue comes up, that sometimes requires a     decision on the political level.

    The Libya story, the way it’s being used, is a sordid manipulation. […]"

And he discusses something near and dear to my heart, which is trying to understand the identities of those we have to engage with - allies, competitors, and especially adversaries:

    "Over the years, both because of personal contact with some key figures on the other         side […] I realized, in order to be effective with one’s enemies, you have to have two     essential capabilities: To overcome by force if necessary — and/or to withstand their     force if necessary. And do everything you can to get into their minds and try to     understand how they see things, what their concerns are — their dreams,     aspirations, hopes, feelings are. And where if at all there is room for common ground     of one kind or another.

    I think that what we have had over the years is an abundance of one side, and a dearth     of the other.     There has been a big emphasis, and rightly so, [on overcoming     adversaries by force]. But we have paid little attention [to understanding one’s     enemies.] And I have always had the feeling to look for ways and means of creating     channels for dialogue. I was involved in channels of dialogue in one way or other,     in major and minor roles, as of 1973-1974, when I served here in Washington, D.C., as     Mossad station chief."

The whole interview is excellent.  Ms. Rozen did a great job, so click on over and read the whole thing!  It'll be far more informative on anything at the debate, in the Spin Room, or in the coverage over the next week...

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

** Hat tip to Tom Levenson over at Balloon Juice

We Have Met the Enemy and He is Us: The Responses to Green on Blue Problems in Afghanistan

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Several weeks ago the Washington Post** reported on one of the responses to the Green on Blue attacks in Afghanistan.  While the way this is labeled is not exactly right, as green on blue would be Afghan civilians attacking the US military (we use green for the population/host country nationals), blue, obviously for the military and in this case specifically the US and coalition forces, the problem does exist and does need to be addressed.  What the article tells us is that a guide has been developed for Afghan soldiers to teach them "...the strange ways of the American soldier. The goal is to convince Afghan troops that when their Western counterparts do something deeply insulting, it's likely a product of cultural ignorance and not worthy of revenge."

Given my understanding of how we interact with the Afghan National Security Forces, I have a hard time believing that they came up with this on their own.  My informed guess is that we came up with this.  This screams "thought up by someone who is in charge of mandatory, quartely training by powerpoint!"  This also tells me that we have given up, at least for Afghanistan, on trying to come to terms with our cross-cultural competency (3C) problems.  3C is all the rage in both the corporate and military worlds.  And it is important, the problem is that we have over ten years of research on it - some good, some meh, some bad - and it all focuses on the precursors to actually being cross-culturally competent.  The focus is on predicting who will be good at it and then trying to figure out what kind of training and education will get them to comptency (read that as proficiency).  We do not pay much attention to actually certifying anyone as cross-cultural competent in terms of being able to actually perform.  What the approach outlined in the WaPo artile indicates is that if we cannot get this right among ourselves, cannot police ourselves up so we do not do stupid things that cause blowback from the Afghans, we might as well mandate that the Afghans learn it.  That way, the next time there is an incident, and there will be, its not our fault - the Afghan's have the cross-cultural sensitivity manual and training, its their fault for not being understanding of our inability to get this right...  Whoever came up with this has got to be the same type of person  that thinks that going through a pdfed powerpoint on "bath salts" once a year is going to solve the problem of military personnel huffing the stuff...

October Surprise?

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Not sure if this is the October Surprise anyone was expecting, but since it involves Iran, there would be a certain symmetry to it.  The New York Times has reported that Iran and the US have agreed to direct negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.  Iran is insisting that these occur after the election so that they know who they are negotiating with.  This, of course, makes sense given the statements of Governor Romney, his campaign, and his advisors regarding Iran and its nuclear energy program.  The speculation in the article is that should Governor Romney get elected that neither the US nor Iran will want to actually have these talks.  This is an excellent example of how personalities and relationships matter.  The Times reports that this development is the result of very quiet, very low key diplomacy by the Obama Administration over the past three plus years coupled with the increases in economic sanctions.  That these efforts appear to be bearing fruit is a positive sign, but Iran's guarded response demonstrates that they have received the messages from the Romney campaign regarding potential, future policy towards Iran and the Middle East.  This too is an excellent example of how hard it is, given the nature of the US political system and the way it interacts with our news media (such as it is...) to use the information portion of national power.  It does not matter if an administration is disciplined and focused when there are over 500 other elected federal officials in Congress and often dozens of potential presidential candidates, given that we are now running two to four year presidential campaigns, hundreds of authoritative analysts and advisors and commentators (and I mean that loosely in both command of the facts and actual quality of analysis) all with their own messages being blasted out 24/7.  It seems like the Iranians have learned a lesson from President Reagan - "trust, but verify".

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do NOT necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

"Will ye no come back again?"

 

"The signing of an agreement between the UK and the Scottish governments on the terms of
the independence referendum is a milestone. Both sides appear ready to accept
the outcome. It would feel more historic if the vote were going to happen any
time soon, rather than in 2014. But the vote will be the first time that
Scotland has voted on its national status in the democratic era. It may lead to
the further splintering of the UK. It would change the lives of everyone in
these islands. There is no doubt that the Scottish people voted for this process
to begin. By handing the Scottish Nationalists a majority of seats at Holyrood
last year, they put the future of the union unequivocally in the arena."  The Guardian

----------------------------------------------

Would the Stuarts return?   My Jacobite ancestors would have been pleased.  Are there still Stuart pretenders?  The Langs went from the Great Glen to the Pale in Ireland to avoid taking the oath to William of Orange.  They were freeholders.  After a hundred years they moved on to good agricultural land along the St. Lawrence in New York State and then to Wisconsin in pursuit of more of the same.  The far West beckoned.  They seemed to have believed that San Francisco was the equivalent of the Grey Havens.

Divide the UK?  Why?  Is it for a bigger slice of North Sea oil income?  Is it the ancient discomfort and dislike of the Sassenach that is the true cause?

From an outsider's point of view it would hardly seem worth doing in terms of material gain.  Presumably both countries would remain in the EU customs union and NATO.  Border controls have been reduced to nearly nothing. Would the Windsors remain the sovereigns of an independent Scotland.  I cannot imagine Scotland as a republic.  I cannot.

"All for Scotland's king and lord..."  pl

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/oct/15/scottish-independence-editorial

http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=will+ye+no+come+back+again&view=detail&mid=35C1AB5A973FD754B01F35C1AB5A973FD754B01F&first=0&qpvt=will+ye+no+come+back+again

 

You are never safe in "the field."

"The fact is, as important as diplomatic security is, it’s also very, very expensive. Sometimes it requires building a whole new embassy -- a daunting project even in far better budget circumstances.

So our diplomats and spies make do.  And, not to make excuses, but the security officers, intelligence agents and analysts working out of U.S. diplomatic outposts in places like Libya have their hands full trying to find out what the enemy is doing.

In the chaos of post-Gadhafi Libya, moreover, do critics really think that the State Department and the CIA should have been sitting on their hands until they got spanking brand-new facilities built for them? "  Jeff Stein

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Diplomatic and intelligence work in "the field" as opposed to behind a desk in Washington is a risky business.  The work in the field requires access to the local people.  Some of the local people are always dangerous.  The assumption should be made that they are dangerous.  Nevertheless, it is always necessary to have access to the people in order to accomplish one's duty.  There is not enough money available to fortify all diplomatic and intelligence posts even if it were a good idea to do so, and it is not for the reason stated here above.

Could the consulate in Benghazi have been made a more difficult target within the strictures of operational necessity?  It probably could have been made more difficult for the assault force but not difficult enough to have repelled an attack like this by roughly a hundred determined men armed with small arms and RPG rockets. 

Should the USMC security guard system be given the mission of defending our diplomatic premises?  The present mission of these marines detailed to the State Department is to protect the classified information in these premises, not the premises themselves or the ambassador/consul.  Such a change of mission would require a massive change of training for the marines involved and reinforcement to such a level that this would become a major mission, perhaps the major mission for the USMC. 

Someone who calls himself "Anonymous" critiques Stein's analysis in this article.  I believe I know who "Anonymous" is, and if that is his true identity he never served a day in the field in his life.

BTW, Jeff Stein and I served in the same Army intelligence unit in VN, albeit in different parts of the country.  There was nothing "wimpy' about the men in that unit.  Several small detachments of them fought for their lives in facilities just like the one he described.  Some did not survive.  pl

http://spytalkblog.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-benghazi-debacle-fubar.html

 

One less ugliness.

"An unmistakable landmark, the plant’s five short smokestacks identified the Alexandria riverfront as much as the George Washington Masonic Memorial does from a hill near the King Street Metro station. Those stacks also pushed untold tons of air pollution into the skies over the District, Maryland and Virginia, marking the plant as the largest single source of air pollution in the Washington region. Almost 15,000 tons of coal remain in a pile outside the facility, enough to fuel the electrical generating engines for five days. But as of midnight Sunday, the 63-year-old coal-fired power plant will permanently shut down. The end came more than a decade after two citizens discovered the extent of the health hazard from the fine particulates that settled out of the smoke and into the lungs of people who live, work and play nearby. Working on their own and slowly picking up support from neighbors, environmental groups and local, state and federal officials, Elizabeth Chimento and Poul Hertel relied on scientific studies and persistence in the face of multiple setbacks. "  Washpost

---------------------

And now for something different...

The election is boring.  Politicians are boring.  More bombs in Iraq, etc.

This coal fired electric plant is finally going, going, gone.  The company insists of course that citizen political action had nothing to do with their decision to take their remaining coal use allotments somewhere else.  I have been to a few of the interminable meetings in which GenOn tried to use federal and state bureaucrats to shut down citizen opposition to the existence of the plant.  For ten years the citizens struggled endlessly against this ugly, ugly thing on fair Alexandria's waterfront.  Will some other commuiity have this inflicted on them by GenOn in their search for the "next dollar?  For sure, but here in the home town of George Washington and Robert Lee we can only try to save ourselves.  Now the internal struggle in the town will shift to what might be made of the land once the "warts" are gone.  IMO the vendu local politicians will try to enable another hotel for their developer "friends" and campaign fund contributors,  The two parties compete for developer favors.  Well, that does not always determine events here.  Civic activism is to Alexandria as high school football is to Texas.  A decade ago my sainted wife led a coalition of the willing to victory to prevent erection of blocks of rental flats where the parking lot now is at the King Street Metro station.  At the time some people told me that "they" would be back and would win.  I don't see any buildings there, and now the tasteful re-development of the area around the square is done and there is no visual space for the apartment buildings.  A change of zoning would be needed now as it was then.  300 peple gathered then in the city council chambers for the climactic meeting.  It went on for five hours and the insurgentos won.  Before that spectacular event, the local developer who wanted to build on the parking lot had the gall to tell my wife that she should not oppose his wishes because the project would make his family rich for "generations."  His brother told me that we "little people' did not have a chance.  Hmmm.

BTW Claude Devereux's story came to an end in the coal port yard that is now under the electric plant.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/genon-power-plant-in-alexandria-is-set-to-close/2012/09/29/daa355ea-08d7-11e2-858a-5311df86ab04_story.html

 

“The Easy Road to War with Iran” by Dr. Christopher Bolan

In Thursday’s Washington Post David Ignatius discusses the results of a war game simulation conducted at the Brookings Institution.  He observes that “the scariest aspect of a U.S.-Iran war game…was the way each side miscalculated the other’s responses – and moved toward war even as the players thought they were choosing restrained options.” 

In reading Jeffrey Record's “A War It Was Always Going to Lose:  Why Japan Attacked American in 1941” (2011) I was struck that the enduring historical lessons he draws in examining this case also underscore the relative ease with which the US and Iran could now easily drift toward war with dire consequences for both sides.    For those interested, a shorter version of Record’s book was published in 2009 as a U.S. Army War College publication available here. 

Allow me to briefly extend the ‘Top Five’ of Record’s historical lessons (within quotation marks below) to the situation with Iran today:

1. “Fear and honor, ‘rational’ or not, can motivate as much as interest”:   A war between the US and Iran is almost certainly not in the objective rational interest of either party.  Iran’s relatively anemic military forces could not hope to stop the inevitable onslaught from a massive, sustained, and technologically superior US air and naval campaign.  Iranian nuclear, military, and any associated facilities (both economic and political) would lay in absolute ruins. 

Some Updated Information on the Innocence of Muslims Affair

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Innocence of Muslims affair (incident?  incidents?) has become a fast moving story that seems to get more fantastical the more that gets reported.  It is now pretty clear that Sam Bacile is not an Israeli, Israeli American, or even Jewish.  Bacile is, apparently, a pseudonym for a Nakoula Basselly Nakoula - who appears to be an Egyptian emigre and was involved in this project with a number of naturalized American Copts and native born American Evangelicals.  Members of the cast have clearly indicated that the film was supposed to be/originally about Coptic persecution and was overdubbed in both English and Arabic with the anti-Islamic dialogue that has led to some serious problems in Egypt, Libya, and Yemen including the death of four American foreign service personnel.  The thirteen minute clip, posted to You Tube in July, began to gather interest over the past several days due to its being promoted by both Quran burning advocate Terry Jones and Egyptian-American Copt Morris Sadek.  The fatal anti-American violence in Libya may have partially been the result of various media and extremist movement sources claiming that the video had been produced for the 9-11 remembrances and was being widely shown on American TV on that day. 

While the story will continue to undergo change over the next several days as more facts come to light, the real issues are how does the US adjust its strategies and policies in the Middle East in response to these activities.  It also demonstrates very clearly that no matter what America's official positions, messaging, and actions are they can all be overcome by events regardless of whether they are unofficial messaging being transmitted by Americans - official or otherwise or the activities of the actual actors on the ground in the Middle East.

*Adam L. Silverman, PhD is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of USAWC and/or the US Army.

Putin should shorten PR's sentences

"The band members were arrested in March after performing a "punk prayer" in Moscow's main cathedral, pleading with the Virgin Mary to deliver Russia from Vladimir Putin, who was elected to a third term as Russia's president weeks after the protest.

The Orthodox Church issued a statement Friday, calling on Russian authorities to show the women "mercy" within the framework of the law. 

The French news agency, AFP, reports that a telephone poll conducted by the Echo of Moscow radio station Saturday indicated 77 percent of listeners felt it was "impossible to agree with the verdict.""  VOA

------------------------------

If Putin is clever he will seize the opportunity to demonstrate that he is no longer a Chekist..  pl

http://www.voanews.com/content/russia_facesa_criticism_over_band_sentence/1490646.html

The search for "Tawheed" in Mali

"Islamists who control northern Mali have publicly amputated the hand of a man they accused of robbery, continuing an increasingly harsh application of what the vast region’s new masters consider sacred law.       

The amputation took place Wednesday morning in the small town of Ansongo, just downriver from the provincial capital, Gao, which is under the rule of an Islamist group, splintered off from Al Qaeda, called the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, or Mujao. It was confirmed by a Mujao spokesman in Gao in a telephone interview, and by the Malian government in a statement later from Bamako, the capital.       

A witness in Ansongo said that the accused man’s hand was “placed on a sort of table,” in front of dozens of spectators, in the town’s main square. Then, “a gentleman with a sort of cutlass” — the witness described him as “an Arab” — swung hard, and sliced off the man’s hand, the witness said. “He cut it. There was a lot of blood.”       

“He held up the man’s hand for the people, like a sort of trophy,” the witness, a local teacher, said Thursday in a telephone interview from Ansongo. “He said, ‘God is great.’ It was barbaric.”" NY Times

-----------------------------

I wish I had a photo of this.  From experience I can tell you that it is a lot easier to do at the wrist.  NB that the group is called "The Movement for Oneness...."  (tawheed). 

Perhaps the US should sponsor this group as well.   pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/10/world/africa/islamists-in-northern-mali-amputate-mans-hand.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120810

A Sudan adventure?

 

"Now that the specter of mass starvation is looming in Sudan’s war zones, and Sudan’s cities are pulsating with demand for change, the international community must respond more creatively and forcefully, lest an outcome more like Syria than Libya result. If change can be achieved in Sudan, the country could become a catalyst for peace in the region, rather than the engine of war and terror it has been for nearly a quarter-century." Prendergast and Eggers

---------------------------

Does this sound familiar? I have always thought that the neocons are really a left internationalist movement disguised in conservative clothing. A famous neocon once said to me that the "con" in "neocon' is the "con" part. Of course in French the joke has yet another level of meaning. Now we have these two fellows, both apparrently on the the left who seem to be advocating US intervention in the Sudan to "make stright the way" and trigger even more revolution across the world. Could this be more jacobin? A commenter on this Washpost op-ed asks whse blood and treasure will be spent in the expedition these men are suggesting. Indeed, whose children would be fed to this Moloch? 

I ask myself if this is a trial balloon.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/keeping-sudan-from-becoming-another-syria/2012/08/02/gJQAXgrXSX_story.ht

In the UK, only the rich may have guns.

Having bought a few "trinkets" from Purdey and Company in Mayfair, I find the UK's gun laws interesting.  At the lnk below you can see the wares at Purdey's.  A low-end 12 "bore" as they call it will set you back more than $6,000.  A more usual side by side in a rosewood case, sized to you, nicely engraved and joy of joys with your "arms" on a brass plate will set you back more than $20,000.

The pictures in the catalogs linked are fun.  I like the one of the dog in his canopied, velvet curtained bed.  Good for the British.  Their laws keep firearms out of the hands of the riff-raff.

I'll be at the National Gun Show at Dulles this weekend along woth a few thousand other riff-raff.  pl

http://www.purdey.com/

Holmes is just a "nut job"

"In 2010, he graduated with top honors from University of California Riverside with a bachelors of science in neuroscience, and then moved to Aurora to pursue his education at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.

Holmes was an honors student and Ph.D. candidate at the school's graduate program in neuroscience until he voluntarily withdrew from the program in June.

He was one of six recipients of a Neuroscience Training Grant from the National Institutes of Health, which funds pre-thesis Ph.D. students in the neuroscience program at the nschutz Medical Campus.

According to the university, the focus of the program is on "training outstanding neuroscientists and academicians who will make significant contributions to neurobiology."

He reportedly failed a preliminary exam before pulling out of the program, according to ABC News' Denver affiliate KMGH-TV. It is unclear if the exam was related to his decision to leave the program."  ABC News

-----------------------------------------------

The slaughter in Aurora was so clearly a mental health issue that I discounted that as an immediate response and concentrated on the politics of this tragedy.  I see that this was a tactical error.  Many of you are a lot more sensitive to death and destruction than I.  The political tirade is in full "bloom" with various gun control advocates calling for; smaller magazines, no semi-automatics rifles, shotguns or handguns, etc.  As I have written, to the outrage of some, none of that will happen in any meaningful way.  There is already federal firearms legislation that bans machine guns, sawed off shotguns, silencers, etc.  Individuals can easily obtain federal licenses to own such things.  Many do so.  The Democrats are terrified of the votes of gun owners.  The Republicans exploit the issue successfully.  There will not be new law on "hardware."  Bloomberg can afford to be a "tiger" on this issue.  He is mayor of New York City, a citadel of enthusiasm for an unarmed citizenry.  BHO is in a very different position.  If he wants to be a one term president, let him speak on the issue.  The damage to his chances "at the margins" would be impressive.

IMO the emphasis should be on ways to keep crazy people from buying guns legally.  This would not be easy.  The Va. Tech shooter had a mental health record, but present day privacy sensitivities prevented this record from reaching the police.  Holmes, thus far, does not seem to have a psychiatric record.

How can you keep an adult with no psychiatric problems, criminal record  or restraining orders concerning firearms from buying a gun?

Ban guns? That i not going to happen in the USA so get creative..  pl

 

http://abcnews.go.com/US/colorado-movie-shooting-james-holmes/story?id=16829552

New Athenaeum Post

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2012/07/ashokan-farewell-jay-ungar-molly-mason-family-band.html

Gun owners in the USA

Number of guns and gun owners in USA.

"Most estimates range between 39% and 50%  of US households having at least one gun(that's about 43-55 million households).  The estimates for the number of privately owned guns range from 190 million to 300 million. Removed those  that skew the stats for their own purposes the best estimates are about 45% or  52 million of American households owning 260 million guns)"


Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_gun_owners_are_there_in_the_United_States_of_America#ixzz21DQSKcrG

-----------------------------------

The NRA has several million members,  The real strength is in the actual number of gun owners,  There will no federal gun control laws past those now in effect.  pl

Sale on Education

Pat Lang’s post on the U of VA sent genuine chills
through me. He put his point with some eloquence:

“What is happening at Charlottesville appears to be part
of a state wide effort to convert the state's many fine colleges and
universities into trade schools to support industry and the business community
generally. The process has had a certain elegant simplicity. Wealthy
business people give a lot of money.  They then are appointed to governing
boards.  After that they begin to agitate for "pragmatic"
reforms.  This generally means attacks on the Humanities.  These are
deemed to be "dreaming of the past"  rather than studies in which
critical, independent thinking is nurtured and fed on the experience of
mankind.”

Albert North Whitehead once said that civilization
is a precarious balance between “barbaric vagueness” and “trivial order.” The
current dispute in the University of Virginia clearly embodies this balance and
places in peril the whole idea of a cultured education.

A student speaks

Pat... thank you for writing. This one is close to me. - I'm a current UVa student and I've been following the events of the past week with some horror and amusement. The little coup appears to be fading, the wind is shifting and Rector Dragas emails are growing ever more desperate. I expect Sullivan will return next week and Dragas will retreat in obscurity building luxury homes back in Virginia Beach. I hope she stays there. Her ideas will linger though, that's the painful part. UVa takes great pride in the Commerce School, our undergraduate MBA. It's a two year program, two years of trade school for those souls willing to give up the latter half of their liberal arts education. Poor trade in my estimation, but then I'm one of those 'poor saps' who studies history and enjoys literature. I'm not one of those 'bold leaders' who'll bring 'strategic dynamism' to the world. I missed the chapter where Churchill took a few years off to get that Harvard MBA. Anyway... I've worked with people who've gone through the program. Many are smart, they could have taken other paths but they came to the conclusion that life is about money and they understood that Commerce was the quickest ticket to that first million. It probably is.  I think they're selling themselves short, but then we all make our own mistakes. You can't save people. God knows I'm a fool about something myself.  The other half, well. It just makes me sad. There are quite a few people here who aren't particularly gifted but they're stubborn and to their credit they work awfully hard. They slave themselves to the material and learn it to the exclusion of all else. The product is something awful, It just kills me in during a group project when someone gets up to talk and they just unload this useless gibberish. They utter phrases like 'creative destruction' as if it meant something real and drone on about leadership theory. They can't write, not in the way Mark Twain understood it. They also can't think, not the way generations of scholars understand the term. Instead they've learned the rubric for product optimization and how to price that 20oz soda just right. -I hope for our sakes that this isn't the future of education.  Eliot

------------------------------------

Thank you!  As has been suggested here, I am at least as concerned for my alma mater, VMI, as for the University.  From the Post today, I see that the governor, fulfilling the role for which we have governors in Virginia has moved to end this immediate mess by telling the visitors that if they don't "fix" it next week he will remove them all and appoint a new board.  Perhaps this time he can appoint a more varied group that includes a wide variety of people who could contribute to the ongoing story of U. Va.'s grand tradition.  pl

Guest Post from oilprice.com: The Most Immediate Threats to Global Energy Security - Jellyfish Interview

Earlier today COL Lang, hopefully enjoying his summer vacation, emailed to ask if I'd make sure the following interview, which was conducted by oilprice.com's Jen Alic was reposted in full.  Oilprice's publisher, Mr. James Stafford, contacted COL Lang to offer him and the SST community a full reprint of this very interesting interview.  You all will find it reprinted in its entirety below:

The Most Immediate Threats to Global Energy Security - Jellyfish Interview

By Jen Alic | Tue, 19 June 2012 14:32

As global energy supplies come under increasing attack by non-state actors and private energy holdings become key targets of political maneuverings and criminal activities, Oilprice.com discusses the nature of the growing threat and how to reverse the risk with “smart power.” 

To help us look at these issues we got together with Corporate intelligence specialists Jellyfish Operations and security expert Jennifer Giroux.

Michael Bagley is the president of Jellyfish, a global boutique intelligence firm that combines on-the-ground intelligence collection and analytics with an unprecedented country-to-country economic diplomacy program that helps governments, corporations, institutions and private individuals forge secure partnerships, discover new opportunities and mitigate operational risks. 

Jennifer Giroux is a global security expert who specializes in emerging threats to energy infrastructure in conflict-affected regions.

In the Interview Michael & Jennifer talk about the following:

• Why the risk to global energy supplies is increasing
• Violent entrepreneurialism: Why piracy is on the rise
• The most immediate threats to global energy security
• Which countries are most likely to see attacks in the future
• Why Saudi Arabia could be the next country to have its energy infrastructure come under attack
• Why energy companies assets are becoming key targets.
• How energy companies can create opportunities in Conflict-Affected Regions
• Why companies need more than just intelligence to operate in hostile environments

Oilprice.com: Energy supplies have always been at risk, particularly due to geopolitical maneuverings, transit through countries in conflict and those suffering from ongoing political instability, as well as piracy on the high seas. You have both mentioned that the risk to global energy supplies is increasing. How do you support that claim?

Zimmerman again

""As uncomfortable as it is, I want you wearing one," Zimmerman told his wife Shellie.

Zimmerman's urging came as he was receiving death threats and his Sanford, Fla., neighborhood as well as much of the country was outraged by the shooting of the unarmed Florida teenager.

The conversation was among a series of taped jailhouse phone calls between Zimmerman and his wife that were released today.

In the calls, which were used to revoke Zimmerman's bond while landing his wife briefly behind bars for perjury, the couple discusses transferring money between bank accounts, paying off bills, and George Zimmerman's concern for safety."  abcnews

-----------------------------------------

I have decided to troll for trolls.  Therefore we will discuss the Zimmerman casec once again.

IMO the judge should find George Zimmerman in contempt of court and guilty of perjury.  He should then fine him in the amount of the money he lied about, Then he should grant him bail on the same basis as previously.

Why?  Bail is not punitive .  Zimmerman is not a danger to the community and he clearly is not a flight risk.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/US/george-zimmerman-urged-wife-buy-bulletproof-vest-jailhouse/story?id=16595550

"Pressing Egypt on democratic change" Washpost

"Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton touched on several of these points Thursday, saying that “there can be no going back on the democratic transition called for by the Egyptian people.” Unfortunately, the Obama administration undercut its credibility  with Egyptians and its leverage over the military in March when it decided to hand over $1.5 billion in military aid, waiving pro-democracy conditions that had been imposed by Congress.

The generals may have been encouraged to believe that the United States would accept further backward steps, such as the dissolution of the parliament. For that reason, the administration must now be clear in its public and private communications to Cairo: If the democratic process is not restored, U.S. relations with the Egyptian military will be ruptured"  Washpost

-------------------------------

I predict that if the US does what the Jacobin editorial page of the Post advises the Egyptian military will go elsewhere for "relations."  China, Russia, the Saudis for money, there are "possibilities.

The US continues to overestimate the extent of its own power and leverage.  People who are faced with a future in which they will live in what would essentially be a medieval society or as dhimmis will not be pushed to jump off the cliff.   The conflict between semi-modernity and Salafi Islamism and its MB variant is very clear to those who stand to lose all if the Islamists win.  They have the example of what has happened in countries where the modernists were foolish enough to listen to us.

Our obsession with this kind of historic meddling is leading us down some dark paths.  In Egypt we are pressing for the resumption of a democratic process that will create a government of our enemies.  In Syria we are aligning ourselves with a medieval plutocracy (Saudi Arabia) and our Al-Qa'ida enemies.

Women in Syria and in pre-2003 Iraq have or had a great deal of freedom within the context of their societies.  Now we are seeking to advance the interests of those who will put women back into the kennel of their kitchens and purdah.

The die has been cast.  The US Government is now firmly behind the propaganda drivel generated by the insignificant liberal minorities and the lying spokesmen of the Islamists.

We HAVE met the enemy, and it is us.  pl 

-------------------------------

Years ago I wrote a book proposal on the subject of American inability to deal with the world outside the context of our own delusions.  It was rejected.  Here it is for those who may be entertained.  "Are you entertained?"

Download Pogo-factor

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/getting-tough-with-egypt/2012/06/15/gJQAvm5rfV_story.html

State of DeNile Part II: Why the Egyptian Supreme Court Ruled that the Egyptian Parliament is Unconstitutional

*

Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

Now that I've got a bit more time***, I wanted to follow up on the breaking news type post I did earlier about the Egyptian Supreme Court Ruling.  If you click through to the BBC article I linked to, you'll see towards the bottom that it provides the Egyptian Supreme Court's rationale for, essentially, invalidating the last Egyptian parliamentary election, which for all intents and purposes brings down the government and forces new elections.  The BBC reported that:  "The court had been considering the validity of last year's parliamentary election, because some of the seats were contested on a proportional list system, with others on the first-past-the-post system.  It decided that the election law had allowed parties to compete for the one third of seats reserved  for independent candidates."

State of DeNile: Egyption Supreme Court Strikes Down Egypt's Parliament

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Earlier today Egypt's Supreme Court struck down the Egyptian Parliament.  The ruling was that "last year's Parliamentary election was unconstitutional, deciding that one third of the seats (won) were "illegitimate""  Given that Egypt's presidential election run offs are coming up in a few days, this should further destabilize the situation in Egypt.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the USAWC and/or the US Army.

"Military suicides..." by Robert Burns

"Suicides are surging among America's troops, averaging nearly one a day this
year - the fastest pace in the nation's decade of war.

The 154 suicides for active-duty troops in the first 155 days of the year far
outdistance the 88 U.S. forces killed in action in Afghanistan, according to
Pentagon statistics obtained by The Associated Press.

The numbers reflect a military burdened with wartime demands from Iraq and
Afghanistan that have taken a greater toll than foreseen a decade ago. The
military also is struggling with increased sexual assaults, alcohol abuse,
domestic violence and other misbehavior."  Burns/AP

---------------------------

I speak not of the marines.  Of them I know little.

The Army, the American people's Army, decided a generation ago to become an army of married. bourgeois, middle class people who would conform to the mores of Middle America, something rather like Tolkien's "Shire."  No more would enlisted men be the "scum of the earth, enlisted for drink" of popular imagination.  Officers would be sought from the same population as enlisted people.  Internal disciplinary and selection processes have pushed the force steadily in the direction of fulfillment of that goal.  The soldiers of my youth who were not interested in Middle Class life have been steadily squeezed out.

Snce 2001 the Army has fought in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that were at first beyond the ken of the narrowly defined and recruited Army of the turn of this century.  Flaming insurgency was defined and described institutionally for a couple of years as "combat in cities."  Why?  It was because the civilian population as a major factor was incomprehensible for an Army that had expected to fight in the woods or desert where there would not be significant civilian presence.  Flexibility has been bred out of the system.  Creative thinking is now a task to be undertaken by corporate contracters.

Today's Army has now largely transformed itself into a global gendarmerie bent on applying the COIN philosophy of pacification as an evolution of warfare to a new and higher state.  Absurd.

Nevertheless, the soldiers who have been called upon to execute the thankless task of inflicting societal transformation on unwilling societies are showing the strain.  They are family men with wives, children and responsibilities in the homeland, our homeland.  They are in easy communication with their families, families who are always in their minds.  Is it surprising that many are choosing what the CG of the 1st Armored Divsion sees as  the easy way out? 

This a serious matter.  The numbers are abnormally high in a professional force.  In the aftermath of these wars, the Army needs to re-think its self image and the kind of people that they insist on having in the ranks.  pl

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/06/military-suicides-average-nearly-one-day-year

Missing a Strategic Opportunity on Iran by Dr. Christopher Bolan

The broad outline for a negotiated deal over Iran’s nuclear program that would satisfy essential U.S. and Iranian national interests is fairly clear.  Iran would agree to limit its nuclear enrichment activities (to levels between 3-5 % seems to be a consensus figure) while allowing for rigorous international inspections designed to minimize prospects for the diversion of civilian nuclear materials and technologies to military programs.  In return for these Iranian concessions, U.S. and other international officials would agree to meaningfully ease and eventually lift (assuming continued Iranian cooperation) economic and financial sanctions.    

However, as rumors circulated earlier this week about the potential for a successful negotiated deal along these lines, two primary obstacles have re-emerged.  One of the main obstacles on the international stage is Israel.  Unsurprisingly, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has adopted an exceptionally tough position regarding international negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program insisting that Iran “stop all enrichment, ship all its nuclear material outside the country, and dismantle its nuclear installation at Qom.”  Of course, each of these conditions would be a deal-breaker from the standpoint of Iranian officials.  After all, the Non-Proliferation Treaty (to which Tehran, unlike Israel, is a signatory) guarantees states the right to develop civilian nuclear programs which presumably include the ability to produce nuclear fuel. Israel, as a sovereign state, is free to pursue and advocate policies as it sees fit.  President Obama, however, is sworn to defend the interests of the American people and should be solely focused on taking those actions that advance American national interests.  No other country should divert the President from that single focus.

The NATO summit was a flop

"Zardari's refusal to reopen the supply routes left a diplomatic blot on a summit that NATO sought to cast as the beginning of the end of the conflict in Afghanistan. The Chicago gathering did produce a formal agreement by the alliance to hand over lead responsibility for security to Afghan forces by mid-2013, and pull out nearly all U.S. and other NATO troops by the end of 2014 even if the Taliban-led insurgency remains undiminished.

U.S. officials insist ample fuel and other supplies are being delivered via much longer and more expensive land routes in Russia and other nations north of Afghanistan. But the Pentagon says reopening the land route in Pakistan will be essential to hauling vast stores of military equipment and vehicles out of Afghanistan during the withdrawal."  LA Times

-----------------------------------

I guess BHO does not really accept the idea that Afghanistan and Pakistan are sovereign entities that are not obliged to do his bidding.

WH spokesmen are now citing the great "success" in Iraq as "proof" of how well things are going to end in Afghanistan.

We have yielded effective operational control to the Afghans.  A formal transfer of opcon can wait until after November.

The Pakistanis are still blockading our supplies and are demading large bribes before they will be willing to open the spigot.

The former Soviet states are getting rich by "solving" this problem temporarily.

General Allen, the WH's man is leaving for EUCOM command soon.  I hope the skiing is still good at Garmisch.

Ambassador Crocker has announced hat he is returning to retirement this summer.

Looks like the little furry critters are leaving.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-nato-afghanistan-20120522,0,2278946.story

Dempsey, A New Marshall ?

"Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it’s more important to discuss missions and capabilities than to bicker over how big the military should be.

“We’re not ordering coffee at Starbucks. This isn’t a matter of getting a tall, grande or venti. It’s what will be different that will most matter,” Dempsey told an audience of about 550 military officers, civilians and defense contractors at a joint war-fighting conference."  hamptonroads.com

---------------------------------

This man seems to have it all.  He is well educated in a broad understanding of the word.  He has a great reputation as a combat soldier and he is unwilling to allow bigoted nonsense abut the Middle East to be taught in service schools.

The president was wise to send this man to "beard" Bibi in his den.   In the best tradition of George Marshall this man stops wars in addition to fighting them.  pl

http://hamptonroads.com/2012/05/joint-chiefs-chairman-urges-military-innovation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Dempsey

 

Zimmerman Case Medical Evidence

In the hope that conversation can be civil, I am re-opening discussion of this case because of  evidence delivered in "discovery" to the defense team by the prosecution.

To wit:

The Zimmerman family physician wrote a report that says that Zimmerman had two black eyes, a broken nose and an injury to the back of his head the day after the killing.  IMO the defense will offer the doctor as an expert witness.  If he is accepted by the court he will be sworn to deliver his evidence about GZ's injuries

Also in "discovery is the medical examiner's report on the condition of TM's body.  He reports the bullet wound and skinned knuckles consistent with a fight.

Also IMO, the court will send the case to trial and depending on the jury make up GZ may well be acquitted

In that event the federal government will charge GZ with violating TM's civil rights and will attempt to apply the Hate Crimes law to the trial.  The Justixe Department is likely to lose in that trial, but they will try anyway.

I will close comments again if ugliness emerges here or to wait for further developments.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-injuries-martin-zimmerman-20120516,0,7794169.story

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/05/16/autopsy-results-reportedly-indicate-trayvon-martin-suffered-injuries-to/

 

 

Identity and Strategy: Modern Zionism as a Strategic(ally Designed) Culture

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

A good chunk of my work is looking at identity and how it drives behavior.  Originally it was how individuals learned behavior from their primary identity groups that promoted political violence, low intensity conflict, and terrorism.  This meant working back and forth from the group level to the individual.  Since going to work for the Army I have been more and more focusing on the group to societal level.  Recently I read Rick Perlstein's piece at Rolling Stone dealing with what he is describing as a crisis of Zionism.  Perlstein's article is a response to Peter Beinart's recent book entitled The Crisis of Zionism (for an interesting interview with Beinart about his book click on through to this one done by Scott Horton over at Harpers).  The most interesting take away for me is Perlstein's recounting a discovery of Beinart's about a deliberate strategy by right-leaning Jewish American leaders to try to transform Jewish American identity away from liberalism (which has always been one fo the predominant strains within American Judaism, largely because of Judaism understanding of and call to social justice) and towards an embattled tribalism that centered on a victimization identity based around the Holocaust and then expanded out to other historical examples (both real and mythical - for instance the Masada Myth).  This in turn created a refocusing of Jewish American identity centered around identification with the safety of the State of Israel.  While Israel's importance to Jewish Americans had not been in dispute since its founding, what Perlstein is describing is the creation of the identity component of a strategic culture: 

   

Where is the NRA in this case?

"A Florida woman who fired warning shots against her allegedly abusive husband has been sentenced to 20 years in prison.

Marissa Alexander of Jacksonville had said the state's "Stand Your Ground" law should apply to her because she was defending herself against her allegedly abusive husband when she fired warning shots inside her home in August 2010. She told police it was to escape a brutal beating by her husband, against whom she had already taken out a protective order."  CNN

------------------------

I am a life member of the NRA.  Shooting is my favorite pastime.  The National Rifle Association embraces the right of Americans to keep and bear arms and to defend themselves as appropriate.

This woman did not shoot her husband.  She fired "warning shots" into the wall or ceiling to dissuade a man against whom she had a court order forbidding him to enter her home.

Apparently she left the room to go get the gun with which to warn him and that was the basis for a conviction for "attempted murder?"

This makes no sense at all.  NRA, where are you?  pl

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57433184/fla-mom-gets-20-years-for-firing-warning-shots/

The "Double Agent" and the Yemen

-  The "Double Agent."  Evidently there was something "special" about the intelligence trail that caused the intercept of a bomb headed to the States from Yemen.  The media are full of the story that a penetrant reached the heart of the operation and caused its failure.  I am suspicious, 1-As he is described he would simply have been our agent or the Saudis', not a double agent.  A double is someone who  is "in play" for both sides.  This man is described as being solely ours.  But, the media are simpletons, so, what can one expect...  2- If this was actually a "leak" of the identity of an active penetrant, then great damage has been done to the US.  Peter King has called for an investigation.  If this story of the "leak" is true then he is correct in doing this. 3- On the other hand, perhaps some other element of intelligence work was the key to the success, and the story of the penetrant is "cover" to protect that source.  King may be playing along with that.  4- Another possibility is that the "leak' is intended to inspire distrust among the jihadis.

We will never know the answer to this conundrum and we should not.

"A Game of Drones" by Ximena Ortiz

"America’s recent foreign policy has been enabled by a central idea: the United States does things differently. It wages wars differently. It suspends habeas corpus sparingly and with great restraint. It encroaches on liberties more gingerly. And it puts military men and women at risk with a respectful selectivity. To advance this mythology, the federal government has, time and again, insisted that it acts with painstaking precision when it resorts to military intervention or security-state measures at home. This, officials have consistently suggested, is the American distinction."  Ximena Ortiz

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/blog/a-game-of-drones/#.T59SULmDMI8.mailto

"How Osama bin Laden is winning, even in death" Ignatius

"What we’re seeing now in Egypt is something that might be called electoral bin Ladenism. Take the group Gamaa Islamiya, which under its spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, made the first unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center in 1993. Today, the organization has formed a Salafist political party with the benign name Building and Development Party. This organization, which like al-Qaeda traces its roots to the Islamist theorist Sayyid Qutb, has 13 seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

Syria will be a test of whether this post-bin Laden Islamist movement can continue to reject violence or will instead be radicalized by the jihadist magnet that is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The successor to bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has tried to use the anti-Assad battle to rehabilitate the al-Qaeda brand — even though it’s another fight that embodies the Muslim-on-Muslim violence that bin Laden came to abhor."  Ignatius

*******************************

"... a year of mostly nonviolent democratic revolution. But it has brought to power some Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups that share common theological roots with bin Laden. And the al-Qaeda goal of driving the “apostate,” pro-American President Hosni Mubarak from power has been achieved."  Ignatius

---------------------------------------

Truer words were never..., etc.  Islamic revivalism (especially in Sunni Islam) is a cyclical phenomenon.  Islam sees itself as a universal truth that should become a way of life for all.  All else is tactics.

 

Cold Water Splashed Onto the War Feverish: A Bit More on Lt. General Gantz's Remarks

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Yesterday COL Lang wrote about Israeli Defense Force's Chief of Staff Lt. General Gantz's remarks pertaining to Iran.  I wanted to take a few lines and focus on some other portions of Lt. General Gantz's remarks, specifically those about Iranian strategic decision making.  Lt. General Gantz, told his interviewers from Haaretz, that "If the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants, he will advance it to the acquisition of a nuclear bomb, but the decision must first be taken. It will happen if Khamenei judges that he is invulnerable to a response. I believe he would be making an enormous mistake, and I don't think he will want to go the extra mile. I think the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people."  While he still sounded a cautious note in regards to potential Iranian nuclear ambitions -  "But I agree that such a capability, in the hands of Islamic fundamentalists who at particular moments could make different calculations, is dangerous", his caution was tempered by his evaluation of both the Iranian Supreme Religious Authority and leadership.

This is a very important point that we need to be cognizant of, just as the Haaretz reporter was, for two reasons.  The first is that Lt. General Gantz's remarks echo those made by GEN Dempsey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, when he was visiting Israel.  The second is that it starkly differentiates the professional views of Israel's senior military officer, as well as its past Intelligence Chief Meir Dagan, from that of Israel's leadership, as well as a number of elected American officials and pundits.  If, as GEN Demspey, Lt. General Gantz, and Director Dagan assert, that the Iranian leadership, and therefore its decision making, is rational (and we should caveat this as within the Iranian context), then normal incentives such as economic sanctions and diplomatic initiatives, may bring about the changes in Iranian behavior that most would like to see.  

The issue going forward is whether the professionals', both military and intelligence, assesments carry the policy arguments going forward or whether the war feverish among Israeli and American politicians and American pundits win the day.  It also sets up some very interesting potential Israeli Civil-Military (Civ-Mil) relations follow ons as things continue to develop.  Lt. General Gantz's remarks, unlike GEN Dempsey's which were in line with official US/Administration positions pertaining to Iran, place him at odds with the Israeli civilian leadership.  That too is a developing situation that bears watching.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of USAWC and/or the US Army.

 

Witnesses on Zimmerman's injuries.

"George Zimmerman had bandages on his nose and head the day after he shot Trayvon Martin dead, neighbors of the gunman said."  CBS News

------------------------------

So, his neighbors are lying?  What does the medical report on Martin's body say? pl

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-57415104-504083/george-zimmerman-had-bandages-on-nose-and-head-after-shooting-neighbors-say/

Media wants Zimmerman court docs unsealed

Zimmerman is the one on the right.

"The criminal justice process belongs to the public, and it's supposed to be difficult to seal documents that are part of criminal trials, especially given the number of important public issues raised in this case. The media companies we represent are challenging the fact that these records were sealed without prior notice to the public, and on nothing more than Mr. Zimmerman's attorney asking that they be sealed. The law does not allow that," attorney Scott D. Ponce of the law firm Holland and Knight said in an email."  LA Times

-------------------------

(Irony alert) I agree. The issues of public policy at stake here are too great for a "star chamber" proceedimg.  No plea bargains!  Release the "discovery" material to the press at the same time it is given to Zimmerman's defense. 

That will make a great case on appeal.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-trayvon-martin-20120416,0,4796922.story

What Is it With Neo-Cons and Screaming at Rabbis?

Adam L. Silverman, PhD *

Rick Perlstein, one of the top historians of modern American Conservatism, has a new profile of Sheldon Adelson up at Rolling Stone's Politics section.  If you want a much better understanding of what drives Adelson, what he wants, and what he expects to get from a Republican presidential victory later this year, click on over and give it a read - its not long, but is informative and entertaining.

And like (we've previously mentioned about) Dr. Krauthammer, Mr. Adelson seems to like screaming at rabbis he disagrees with: "Then there was the time, late in 1999, when Las Vegas's Temple Beth Shalom honored the city's new Jewish mayor with a dinner. It was originally to be held at Adelson's new Venetian, but the Democratic mayor refused to cross the picket line. So they held it at the Four Seasons instead. Adelson withdrew the $250,000 he had pledged for the temple's building fund and tossed it to another Jewish organization instead – but not before verbally dressing down Beth Shalom's rabbi with such virulence that the shaken rabbi recalled, "Nobody had ever talked to me like he talked to me."

I think somebody needs a nap...

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of USAWC and/or the US Army.

The Affidavit of Probable Cause in the Zimmerman Case

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

The Affidavit of Probable Cause that was filed in the Zimmerman case is now available online.  I found the link to it here.  Here's an interesting take on it from James Fallows at The Atlantic and one on the case in general from Johnathon Turley.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College (USAWC).  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarilu reflect those of USAWC and/or the US Army.

Opposing Government-sponsored Torture by Dr. Chris Bolan

The National Security Archive published a recently declassified memorandum from a senior U.S. State Department advisor Philip Zelikow who in 2006 courageously (if belatedly) opposed the Bush Administration's authorization of water boarding and other methods of what is often euphemistically referred to as 'enhance interrogation.'  The legal opinions by former Deparment of Justice lawyers led by John Yoo endorsing the use of torture will serve as a blot on the soul of our nation for some time to come.  It is a credit to both John McCain and Mr. Zelikow that they pressed the government to adhere to its own laws and professed principles.

Much of the Zelikow memo is written in legal-ease.  The essence of his argument is that many of the "enhanced interrogation techniques authorized for employment by the CIA...[are] intrinsically cruel, inhuman, [and] degrading...[and should] be barred even if there is a compelling state interest asserted to justify them."  The memo goes on to more explicitly make the case that specific coercive techniques including water boarding and stress positions are unconstitutional; while other measures such as sleep and food deprivation may be legal "depending on the circumstances and details of how these techniques are used."

Nations often reflect the aspirations, hopes, and fears of their people and leaders.  In the of 9/11, many Americans have become overly fearful and only too willing to sacrifice personal liberties and bypass constitutionally-guarantee legal protections in the pursuit of an imagined (and unachievable) sense of security.  Thankfully, President Obama has put some of the uglier aspects of the 'global war on terror' behind us.  However, other aspects such as warrantless searches, 'targeted assassinations', and indefinite detentions remain.  We will yet need many more citizens, politicians, and officials to demonstrate the courage of their convictions.

The author is professor of national security studies at the U.S. Army War College.  The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

Sunday News - 8 April, 2012

Afghanistan -  "a newly formed national force — the Afghan Special Operations Unit — will have the authority to search houses and private compounds and arrest suspected insurgents, Afghanistan’s Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said Sunday. U.S. forces will provide support “only as required or requested,” according to the agreement, which was signed by Wardak and General John R. Allen, the commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan."  Washpost

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Wardak (and his son) are reputed to be at the heart of Karzai government money corruption in Afghanistan.  They also maintain relations with the "opposition" that are good enough to clear the way for logistics convoys.   Surely General Allen knows that these operations will leak like a sieve when it is convenient to Wardak and company.  Another coffin nail for the US presence in Afghanistan.  pl

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Egypt - Umar Suleiman knows he has little chance of becoming president of the degenerating mass that is post Mubarak Egypt.  Umar Suleiman is not on trial.  He was questioned and released without injury to his rights as a citizen.  Why?  He was head of the GID, the Egyptian EXTERNAL intelligence service, not the INTERNAL service.  He did not work for the Ministry of the Interior (Police Ministry)  Both of those are on trial or awaiting trial.  It was not US's job to oppress Egyptians.  It was theirs'.  He is known to be uninterested in money as a basis for existence on the Mubarak or Wall Street models.  He is a devout Muslim without taint of Islamist zealotry.  He likes the West, and the US?  Excuse me if I do not apologize on his behalf.  Israel?  Well, it was his duty.   Why has he done this foolish thing in deciding to run?  He is 75 years old.  If we were still in touch I would have advised him not to do this...  Amre Moussa will probably win.  pl

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Yemen - Last year I tried to make the point on a number of occasions that the union of North and South Yemen is unstable and may not last.  That seems even clearer now.  The former North Yemen country (YAR) continues to be dominated by confederations of Zeidi Shia (Fivers) tribesmen.  These are highly self aware and heavily armed forces among which many have served in the Armed forces and were trained by the US, the UK, France and the USSR.  The Zeidi Shia are nothing like the Twelvers in Iraq and Iran but a connection is relentlessly sought by the ignorant.  The former South Yemen (PDRY) is overwhelmingly Sunni Arab, organized into largely de-racinated city swellers and sedentary villagers in the far flung wadis of the south.  The PDRY was a Marxist-Leninist state.  That set of ideas was taught in state schools for decades.  Ali Abdullah Saleh was no saint but he was also no Marxist.   Following his departure he was replaced with a "Sunni" general from the greater Aden area.  That man knows that to maintain power he must rid himself of the Zeidi tribesmen that fill the armed forces and security services.  Maliki understands the same thing in Iraq,  His situation is merely the mirror image.  The attempted purge of Zeidi officers that led to the airport seizure is the first act in this drama not the last.  AQ in Yemen watches on the sideline.  It knows that it would have far more running room in an independant South Yemen than it ever will have in the Zeidi country.  pl

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Israel - Ehud Bark was on Zakariya's GPS show today.  I knew him when he used to say that Israel could do anything with its bayonets but "sit on them."  I liked him better then even if he was closely linked to the Pollard Affair.  He told Zakariya today that  1-MAD is not possible with Iran and therefore containment is not possible, 2- He predicted that Iran will build ICBMs for its as yet non-existent weapons and therefore Israel is trying to save the world from its own stupidity, 3- He does not believe that sanctions will dissuade to Iranians from their putative nuclear weapons program.  IMO his vision of the true effect of the present sanctions is the reduction of Iran to a peasant and therefore harmless state.  He reiterated that there is a limit to Israel's patience.  IMO opinion this discourse makes the war or peace issue a question of American ability to deter Israel.

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US Intelligence - In what is clearly a government press release, the US published today an exposition of the quality of its information regarding Iranian programs.  Two staff journalists at the Washington Post wrote this up from rather complete interviews granted by what are described variously as former senior intelligence officials.  Let us not be coy.  If these were anything but recent former directors of the CIA the men in question would be headed for indictments.    The story reeks of of the CIA is its role as propagandist.  The subtle denigration of the rest of the IC is familiar.  Is this story a bad thing?  No! It is good!  The target audiences are; Israel, Iran and the Zionist 5th Column in the US Congress and media.  The message is clear.  The US will know well in advance if Iran decides to build weapons.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/united-states-and-afghanistan-sign-deal-on-night-raids/2012/04/08/gIQA3Sf13S_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/9193409/Hosni-Mubaraks-former-intelligence-chief-Omar-Suleiman-to-run-for-Egypt-presidency.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/08/yemen-airport-idUSL6E8F80LP20120408

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sees-intelligence-surge-as-boost-to-confidence/2012/04/07/gIQAlCha2S_story.html?hpid=z1

"In the eye of a firestorm" NY Times

“They were not huge gashes,” the father said. “When he went to the doctor the next day, he said he could stitch it, but that he would have to re-cut it since it had started to heal. He may not have gone to the hospital earlier than that because he was in police custody for a while,"  NY Times

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The doctor's testimony will be significant in this matter.

This AM Starbuck Joe said on his show that the Right should not seek to defend Zimmerman.  His reasoning was that such an attitude would cost votes,  There was no mention of the truth as a consideration.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/02/us/trayvon-martin-shooting-prompts-a-review-of-ideals.html?pagewanted=7&_r=1&hp

Pope Benedict and Fidel

Benedict has it right on this.  The US Trade Embargo may have been useful before the utter defeat of Communism in all but a few miserable little places like Cuba and a miserable big place like China, but it is counter-productive now.

The US should tell the Cuban government that in return for removal of the embargo we want completely free movement between the two countries and the right of return for Cuban-Americans and their descendents.

Under those conditions communism will not last long in Cuba. pl

http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article3258994.ece

Congressman Rush's fashion statement.

"The lawmaker called for a full investigation into the death of Trayvon, a Florida teenager shot last month by a neighborhood watch volunteer. The 17-year-old's death has become a cause celebre, sparking a national conversation about racial profiling and "Stand Your Ground" self-defense laws." USA Today

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Does Rush not think a "full investigation" is underway?  The "Stand Your Ground" law is really not a factor in what happened to Martin.  Zimmerman was carrying a pistol that he lawfully possessed and carried without regard to that law.  The issue is whether or not he lawfully shot Martin in self defense.

The SYG law is a Florida law.  The US federal government has no ability to change that law unless it wishes to claim that the law is unconsitutional country wide.

I found the statement of the acting Sanford chief of police to be a hopeful thing.  He said that the Sanford PD would not allow the integrity of the investigayion to be corrupted by the media and public.  I suppose we will hear him called an "Uncle Tom."  pl

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2012/03/trayvon-martin-hoodie-bobby-rush-/1 

 

The Sanford police report...

"... the Sanford Police Department report, written by the officer at the crime scene who handcuffed Zimmerman. “I could observe his back appeared to be wet and was covered in grass, as if he had been laying on his back on the ground,” the officer wrote. “Zimmerman was also bleeding from the nose and back of his head.”

When Zimmerman was placed in the back of the squad car and given first aid, the officer heard him say, “I was yelling for someone to help me, but no one would help me,” according to the police report.

On at least one of the eight taped 911 calls made to police, screams can be heard in the background. Martin’s parents believe it is their son screaming for help. But a friend of Zimmerman’s said on television Monday he believed it was Zimmerman’s voice in the background.

A federal law enforcement official involved in the investigation said that Zimmerman told authorities he was returning to his sport-utility vehicle after calling police when Martin confronted him."  Hurwitz in Washpost

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The media have a lot to answer for in this matter.  It will be interesting to learn what Holder's Justice Department is going to do in this case.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trayvon-martin-started-confrontation-zimmerman-lawyer-says/2012/03/26/gIQAIlr0cS_story.html