Sic Semper Tyrannis

The Sultan Caliph Tayyip the First

 

 

"After a night of violence, traffic returned to Istanbul's Taksim Square early Wednesday, with taxis, trucks and pedestrians returning to the streets. A heavy police presence stood off to the side, near a new barricade erected before dawn to prevent riot police from firing tear gas into the square's still occupied Gezi Park. Hundreds of protesters remained in the park, clearing up after a night of trying to fend off tear gas, followed by an early morning storm that blew down tents and soaked bedding and blankets. At the park's entrance on Taksim Square, a massive barricade of wrecked cars and construction material stood as rudimentary protection from the police. Throughout Tuesday, riot police firing water cannon and tear gas clashed repeatedly with pockets of protesters throwing stones and setting off fireworks in pitched battles. The unrest didn't simmer down until just before dawn. Erdogan has insisted the protests and occupations, which he says are hurting Turkey's image and economy, must end immediately."  USAtoday

 

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I think that Erdogan has greatly over-estimated the strength of his own position and is in big trouble.  Richard Engle and various knowledgeable people tried over the last few days to explain Turkey to a public that wants to think that all Middle Eastern countries are the same and that revolution against an elected government is necessarily a bad thing.  It was clear from the responses of the 24/7 news crowd that this message was completely beyond the level of their education.

Erdogan has been elected several times, but he was elected because the many rural villages full of peasants all over Anatolia will always vote for him.  Many of the people in those villages never accepted Ataturk's westernization of Turkey and his attempt to createe a secular society in which European mores would prevail.

Erdogan for all his smooth talk and business suits is intent in re-creating an Islamist Turkey.  the westernized element in the country knows exactly what Erdogan is aboiut.  If you don't think he is like that, look at his wife.  She represents what he really wants.

A great upheaval is coming in Turkey.  Erdogan intends to continue to decimate the Turkish military officer corps and make the armed forces into advocates of Islamism.  He intends to suppress women's rights, and to convert the Turkish Constitution into an instrument of Islamization.

This is the man that Obama and Kerry want for an ally?  pl

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/06/12/turkey-protests/2414101/

Let's Weaken the Authority of Military Commanders - No?

 
"... military officials united in opposition to Gillibrand’s proposal, which would take away commanders’ authority to determine whether sexual assault cases go to trial. “If you’ve heard each of us suggest that the role of a commander is central in solving this problem, it’s because we believe that the role of the commander is essential to any change we will be able to make on this issue,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey told the committee, defending the current processes. Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force and Coast Guard leaders testified Tuesday on a panel convened by the Senate Armed Services Committee to hear opinions on pending sexual assault bills.  Politico

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The notion that military society is or should be closely analogous to civilian life is just ignorant and silly.

The military life and military society exist for the sole purpose of doing violence in service of the foreign, and if need be, the domestice policy of the US Government

The military does not exist for the purpose of creating opportunities for "self-actualization" for people in the forces.  This is true without regard to gender, race, status as a membe of a protected minority or whatever.

In pursuit of combat power in the service of the country, nothing can be  allowed to exist in the US armed forces that detracts in any way from the generation and maintenance of that power.

 A key factor in the generation of combat power is the unity and integrity of what is called the chain of command.  By this is meant the undivided authority and responsibility of commanders at all levels from squad leader to theater commander over all that occurs within their commands.  The principle enunciated by the Commandant of the USMC today that both the authority and the responsibility of commanders can not be diluted without threatening the capability of the force is absolutely correct.

Both the functioning of the Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) and the Inspector General system are command functions.  There is no separate judicial system,  in the military, nor should there be.  A court-martial is a command function.  It sits in the name of the commander and represents him or her and acts for him.  The commander should continue to have the right to reduce sentences recommended by a court-martial that was authorized by him.

To take judicial power away from commanders is to weaken the power and authority of all commanders and to court battlefield disaster when in some future combat service members question that authority.

It is amusing to hear draft dodgers like Christopher Matthews opine on how the armed forces should be run, but it is much more serious to hear senators who know little of the reality of war treat this crisis of criminal activity as an issue left over from the feminist culture wars.

Solution:

What needs to be done is to hold commanders responsible in terms of promotion and assignment for failure to enforce existing militsry law.  In other words, commanders who do not fully investigate, prosecute and punish malfeasants should be penalized in term of their careers.  As soon as it becomes clear that this is true, the rate of such misbehavior will drop to a low level.  All that will be required to achieve that effect will be for some general or admiral to be heavily penalized for failure to act or for retaliation.  pl 

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/military-sexual-assault-hearing-92196.html

Homage to Oklahoma

This picture is in Missouri.  (We say Mizzoureh here)  They were struck yeaterday as well.  It is as though God Almighty has chosen the people of the central US for the trials of Job.

I visited Oklahome for a few days years ago and was struck by the geniality and friendliness of the people. 

Now we see them in their finest hour, unbowed, helping each other and unwilling to accept defeat.

Homage!

 pl

Memorial Day 2013 Post On The Athenaeum

Includes download of the essay "Dear Hearts Across the Seas" by Pat Lang.

 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2013/05/memorial-day-2013.html

Open Thread on Moore, Oklahoma

This little working class residential town is halfway betwee Norman and Oklahoma City.  pl 

Awkward for NARAL

"Ohio is one of 38 states to have a fetal homicide law on the books, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The law in Ohio makes it a crime to murder a person "who is or was carried in the womb of another."

The state's fetal homicide law was used in 2011 against Dominic Holt-Reid who tried to force his girlfriend to get an abortion at gunpoint in Ohio. Holt-Reid pleaded guilty to an attempted murder charge and is serving 13 years in prison.

The most high-profile fetal homicide trial in the United States occurred in 2004, when Scott Peterson was convicted of murdering his pregnant wife and unborn son and sentenced to death in California.

On Thursday, Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Timothy McGinty, who has jurisdiction over all felony cases for Cleveland, said he intends to seek aggravated murder charges against Castro once the case is formally transferred to his office. Aggravated murder charges could carry the death penalty."  Yahhat i can only point out the oo News

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The depth of my contempt and loathing for Ariel Castro is profound.  I hope the state of Ohio prosecutes him for everything they find feasible, including the fetal murder charge.

Having said that, I feel I must point to what appears to me to be a logical (but apparently not legal) conflict between Ohio's apparent concession of "human being" status to an unborn but living fetus and my perception of the position of orgnizations like NARAL who maintain that a living fetus is not a human being and that it can be disposed of by the mother up to the moment of birth if she wishes to do so.

Thereafter, according to the law in many places, the newborn becomes a living human being and the act of killing it becomes homicide.

Are there not logical inconsistencies in these "rules?"

I am sure that groups like NOW and NARAL wish to see Castro punished, but do they accept Ohio's definition of an unborn child as human?  pl 

 http://news.yahoo.com/murder-case-against-cleveland-kidnapping-suspect-tough-prove-144332390.html

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57583777/judge-weighs-death-penalty-for-accused-cleveland-kidnapper-rapist/

Kerry agonistes - Well, maybe not yet.

"Russian officials say they are not insisting on the survival of Assad, but they note that the Geneva accord says the fate of his government is to be decided by Syrians in negotiations. The secretary of State's comments in Rome come as reports surfaced that Israel had warned the United States that Russia was about to complete the sale of advanced, S-300 ground-to-air missile batteries to Syria. Kerry called the missile sales "potentially destabilizing," but his criticism of Moscow was muted at a time when the two nations were cooperating in the effort to jump-start peace talks. "I think we've made it crystal clear that we would prefer that Russia was not supplying assistance" to Syria, Kerry said. "That is on record; that hasn't changed." Israeli officials declined to comment Thursday on the report of new Russian missile shipments, but Israel has long been concerned about Russia's weapons sales to Syria. Analysts said Syria wants the missiles in part to defend against Israeli airstrikes. Since January, Israel has launched three air attacks against Syrian weapons stockpiles that it said were earmarked for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah."  LA Times

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Wow!  I have come to think that diplomacy is too important to be left to the State Department.  Both this fellow and HC thought it their role to wander the earth directing future history while "the Department" concentrates on important things like keeping the WH happy at all cost.

Why does this man think that the Syrian Government and/or the various rebel factions care what he thinks about anything?  We have "made it clear to Russia that we wish they were not supplying the Syrian armed forces?"  Why would Russia care about our wishes.  What leverage do we have? Actually, they are doing us a great kindness by letting us use their railroads for re-supply and to evacuate our equipment from Afghanistan.

Does Kerry imagine that if he looks sad and unhappy Putin will give him what he wants?

I think itis time for a true special envoy to be appointed.  I nominate Zbig.  pl 

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-kerry-syria-20130510,0,2669751.story

The Day's Events

1- The Bloombergians sent a "patrol" into the Granite State to assail Kelly Ayotte in her strongholds.  This AM the Mikaites with their kaffee klatch hangers-on are rejoicing in the "turn of the tide."  They beleive that the devil worshipping senators who voted against Manchin-Toomey are doomed.  Well, maybe.  Or maybe people in the "raided" states will develop resentments peculair to these operations.  Even the transplanted massholes in the deep south of NH may resent this.

2- The Feds have busted Tsarnaev's three roommates.  Interesting.  They are going to pay a high price for their group solidarity.  Wait unil they meet "bubba" in the Big House.  I said early on here that student groupings should be looked at.  Kids hat age are a walking mass of big "T" with nary a whole brain among them.  It actually did not occur to me that they would be so stupid as to do this in the metro area where they lived.

3 - Guantanamo is in the news again.  Let's not forget that some of the prisoners are really dangerous and eager to take up arms again.  Even if they close that resort on the Caribbean, that group can't be tried and can't be released.  the evidence against them was contaminated by treating them as though they were PWs early on.  PWs are not mirandized because PWs are not subject to trial for their actions except under exceptional circumstances.  No American court whether civilian or military will admit statements made at that time as evidence.

4- The R2P crowd are still hard at it trying to bulldoze BHO into what would become an open ended intervention in Syria.  Polls indicate that the US public (62%) believe we have no responsibility for civil war in that country,  They are correct.  The rebels are the enemies of the US,  Get it?  Listen to the exchange bewteen the rebel activist Jouejati and Joshua Landis on the Newshour a couple of nights ago.  pl 

The Gatekeepers

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Not to horn in on BG Farrell's movie reviews here at SST, but I recently saw a documentary and wanted to bring it to the attention of the SST community.  About two weeks ago I was asked to go with our former USMC senior service rep here at the US Army War College to see the new Israeli documentary The Gatekeepers by Dror Moreh. The Gatekeepers is an oral history of Israel's internal security and intelligence service - Shin Bet.  Moreh's documentary is built around in depth interviews with the last six Shin Bet directors and spans events from the 1960s through to the last several years, combined with archival footage and computer generated reenactments.  In fact the documentary's production was delayed until the most recent former director, Yuval Diskin, retired and could be interviewed for and part of the project.  Moreh was able to get the project going, which features the first public interviews with any of these men, because one of the former directors, Ami Ayalon was willing to be interviewed after being elected to the Knesset from the Labor Party.  It was Ayalon who helped convince his peers to participate.

Moreh's documentary is divided into seven segments and includes such controversial topics as the 300 bus incident, the assassination of Prime Minister Rabin, and breaking up the Israeli Jewish extremist attempts to blow up the Dome of the Rock on the Temple Mount. For me one of the most interesting portions of the film was when Yaakov Peri, who ran Shin Bet from 1988 to 1994, referred to Palestinian's who had engaged in attacks on Israel as melkhamim.  Melkhamim is Hebrew for warriors.  All the other former directors referred to Palestinian attackers as terroreest, which, as you can tell, is the transliteration word imported into Hebrew for terrorist.  The documentary was excellent and I cannot recommend it highly enough to the SST community.  If you're interested in counter-terrorism, intelligence, counterintelligence, and/or the Israeli/Palestinian dispute you need to see it if it is in your area. All six of the former directors interviewed demonstrated significant nuance in regards to their assignments, their adversaries, the problems Israel faces, and the politicians they work for.

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the United States Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the United States Army War College and/or the US Army.

Syria, the Levant, and the Real Domino Effect

*

Adam L. Silverman, PhD**

 

As the Syrian Civil War continues into its third year, there are several potential outcomes that we need to look out for and be concerned with.  These are not just limited to Syria, but to the entire Levant, and even to Iran.  So lets run the board in order:

Syria

There are really two key potential outcomes and one sequel for Syria itself: stalemate driven insurgency, the fall of the Assads leading to a Sunni majority takeover, and the withdrawl of the Alawites to Latakia.

It is, in some respects, both surprising and not surprising that the Assad government has held on for as long as it has.  In many ways the Syrian Civil War is both an Assad and Alawite existential fight. which partially explains just how hard the government has responded and how far it is willing to go to survive.  One of the two most likely outcomes to the dispute is that the government is strong enough to survive, but not strong enough to completely put down the rebellion and that the rebellion is not strong enough to overthrow the government, but just strong enough to survive.  If this happens, then we will see a classic insurgency along the lines of what the Philippines has endured with the Moros on Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago and similar to what Columbia has faced with the FARC.  In this situation Syria essentially gets carved up into two or more statelets - with government control in some areas and rebel control in others. 

The second potential outcome is that the Assad government does fall and the Sunni majority, or some faction of it takes over.  And it is this latter concept of faction that is important.  There is clearly no good cohesion among the rebel groups, both the domestic Syrian and the foreign fighters/jihadis, as well as between them.  While it may ultimately be a good thing for the region if Assad goes, it will not be a simple transition.  The various factions are likely to try to consolidate power, claim and then establish legitimacy, and will come to blows with each other over who will take control.  This possible outcome has the potential to turn into a Syrian version of the Thirty Years War, where different factions try to and/or actually seize power, seek to consolidate, face challenges to their legitimacy, and then the cycle of violent succession starts all over again.  This would, unlike the actual Thirty Years War, not end in the creation of a secular state, as the Syrian Sunni majority is conservative and devout even though it is not Salafist.  So do not expect a secular Sunni majority Syria to emerge.

In both of these two potential outcomes their is a sequel: the fallback of the Alawites, with or without the Assads, to their traditional lands in Latakia.  Latakia is the mountainous strip of Syria below Turkey on the coast of the Mediterranean.  While it is not completely fortifiable, it is certainly good ground - to paraphrase MG Buford - for digging in and trying to make a stand.  Not only would this prolong the dispute, but it would complicate Syria's claims to their portions of the recently discovered Leviathan petroleum and natural gas field in the eastern Mediterranean.

"Lawmakers Push for Federal Trial of Boston Suspect" NY Times

Having been an expert witness in several Guantanamo Habeas Corpus  cases that stretched on interminably and having served the same function in Article Three criminal cases involving national security I would heartily recommend that Tsarnaev be tried in federal civilian court.

In my experience the Department of Justice and the FBI are more than qualified and quite willing to prosecute such cases.  There is an abundance of evidence in this case and any links to a larger group than the two brothers will soon be uncovered.

Any idea that a Military Commission under the present law would deal with the culprit(s) more severely than a civilian court is misguided.  Having been "burned" by the experience of the mistreatment of prisoners in the immediate post 9/11 world the military can be expected to be very wary of any such idea.  Under pressure from Cheney and Rumsfeld, carefully chosen commanders did things then that were outside the traditions and regulations of the US armed forces.  The armed forces have payed a price for that in reputation and corruption of their institutions and will not repeat the error.  It would be much better to let the civlian courts deal with this matter.

BTW, the claim that the US government has been opposed to Soviet/Russian government actions against the Chechens in Chechniya is nonsense.  At the level of working government there has been a constant cooperation on the basis of anti-terrorism since the emergence of salafi wahhabi elements among the Chechen guerrillas in; Chechniya, the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan.  FSB (formerly KGB) witnesses who have worked on the Chechen "problem" for decades are routinely called as prosecution witnesses in US federal courts in cases whree their "expertise" is useful.  The Chechens know this.

We should remember that the Chechens and other Northern Caucasian minority "nations" have resisted Russification and Westernization for centuries.  Until recently they were led in this resistance by their own Sufi murids.  these Sufis were in no way either salafi or wahhabi.  pl

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/22/us/push-for-tsarnaev-to-be-tried-in-federal-court.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

What Makes Them Tick? - TTG

No. I don't pretend to know what makes all rebels, terrorists, bombers, school shooters and beltway snipers do what they do. I do think there is a common thread that ties the actions of these people together.  This morning I found the writings of an MIT political science professor that intrigued me. Roger Peterson's first work focused on Lithuanian resistance to Soviet occupation. That's what caught my eye. The MIT faculty page describes his research as follows:   

"Petersen's earlier work (Resistance and Rebellion: Lessons from Eastern Europe) concentrated on violent networks. A second strand of research studied motivations and emotions behind ethnic violence and culminated in Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth Century Eastern Europe. Petersen's more recent major research, culminating in a book entitled Western Intervention in the Balkans: The Strategic Use of Emotion in Conflict, again deals with emotions but with a different focus. Here, the goal is to understand how political entrepreneurs strategically use group emotions within the contours and constraints of conflict. Most recently, Petersen has begun another major set of research working with practitioners returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. The primary goal is to identify which social science theories apply to 21st Century insurgency."

Peterson believes that most academic analysis tends to focus on rational theories that are too straightforward and simple to explain why people turn to violence to address real or perceived wrongs. His research led him to suggest that the emotions of fear, hatred, resentment and rage can provide a deeper understanding of why individuals turn to violent resistance and rebellion. (Actually those four emotions describe the state of political discourse in America pretty well.) Of course Peterson's theory is more nuanced and developed than what I just described. I have yet to read and digest what I have found. The first  twenty pages of his first book are available here. A review of his first two works in Lituanus, the Lithuanian Quarterly Journal of Arts and Sciences is here. An interview with Peterson addressing the Iraqi resistance is available here. Peterson made an interesting point in the conclusion of a Naval War College case study on the Iraqi insurgency. It's the same point that I and Colonel Lang have made many times. 

"Our study also leads to some speculation. Given the uncertainties and high costs of other strategies, we anticipate that the robust decapitation capability embodied in JSOC will be an enduring institutional legacy of this war for the U.S. military. The killing of Osama Bin Laden further enhances its prestige. Its effectiveness, including potential counterproductive  aspects, remains hard to evaluate given its secrecy and unknown interaction with conventional COIN. Its similarity to network-centric warfare enhances its attractiveness for many in the U.S. military. However, it risks putting the tactical problems of targeting ahead of resolution of the local and regional political issues. A potential major risk is that SOCOM will continue to under-invest in "non-kinetic" SOF who specialize in foreign internal defense and unconventional warfare missions because of the prestige and wealth accruing to JSOC flavor of direct action. These might be just the sort of low profile, intelligence intensive, relationship building forces you want to engage with +/-2s, especially during the period of waiting for interests to align."

I want to end this post on a more personal note. It is a story of the only mass murderer that I have personally known. Perhaps Roger Peterson's theory will shed some light on this incident.  

Prior to the Newtown tragedy, the worst mass murder in Connecticut  happened in my hometown in 1977. Lorne Acquin, a Canadian indian, (I can't remember the tribe) killed his foster brother's wife, her seven children and another visiting child with a tire iron. He then set the house on fire. It was a time of great sorrow in Prospect. The funeral mass for Cheryl Beaudoin and her children was held at Saint Anthony's church and was attended by a large part of the town, both Catholic and Congregationalist. The Old Prospect Cemetery Association donated burial plots beneath a towering old maple tree for the family. They are surrounded by the graves of veterans of the French and Indian and Revolutionary Wars… as well as the graves of my mother and little sister. I was already in Hawaii at the time, but I bet the walking procession of eight caskets to the old cemetery across the road from the church probably looked like something from another century. Everything I heard from those events spoke of compassion. I did not hear a cry for vengeance against "Uncle Lorne." There were more questions about what could have driven him to committing this horrible act and what could we have done to prevent it.   

I knew Lorne Acquin. I knew him more as a dark protector of his younger brother. He was the subject of some of my first schoolyard fights. He was a "troublemaker" but only a few degrees more so than myself. His world and his mind broke. He is now in prison for the rest of his life. There was no death penalty in Connecticut back then. I have no idea what goes through his mind today.

TTG

Open Thread on the Marathon Attack.

My current guess is that this was the work of one or two people who had no external contacts.  If they did, the FBI would have been onto their communications.  pl

Obama is "betting the ranch."

 

President Obama is betting that he can "have it all."  He has chosen to press hard on issues in which it is likely that he will lose badly and become a lame duck long before this usually occurs in 2nd presidential terms:

- Guns.  It is transparently obvious that the president as the head anti-gun person wants severe restrictions on gun ownership in the United States.  His allies in this matter frequently slip in public speech and mention that what they want now is just a first step.  The widespread deception involved in the propaganda against gun ownership involves the mis-stated results of polling.  Examples:  The supposed 90% of Americans who want more inclusive sales background checks - Yes, they want that but what kind of background checks? The supposed 40% of gun sales that are unchecked, yes, but what sort of sales are those?  The implication in the propaganda is that these are sales conducted by unlicensed commercial sellers operating on the fringes of gun shows.   This is untrue.  Such chicanery has confirmed  gun owner belief that whatever legislation is passed this year, it must be held to rigid minimums.  This view will prevail and Obama will be forced to accept that.  That will weaken him.

- Immigration.  A compromise is possible, but any provision in the bill that creates a veiled amnesty will cause it to fail in the House.  The notion that a mere statement on the part of the DHS that they have a comprehensive plan for border control should serve as a trigger for a quick beginning of "the path to citizenship" will cause the bill to fail.  That would weaken Obama.

- Foreign Policy.  We have the spectacle of John Kerry traveling the world attempting to dictate behavior to one and all.  Israel, Turkey, Palestine, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, NE Asia, Egypt.  How absurd!  How mistaken this is as to the true nature of international politics.  This process is bound to fail and the failure will weaken Obama.

- Obama's Budget.  Chained CPI is the least of the issues that Obama's base has with this document.  BHO has revealed himself as someone who is quite willing to abandon the ideals of the Democratic Party.  This will weaken him.

"I am the president, clothed in immense power!"  "The fate of mankind rests in our hands!"

Obama's problem is that he lacks Lincoln's power, a power fortuitously given by civil war to "the great emancipator."

No, he is much more like Grant in his second term.  pl

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/with-domestic-legacy-in-lawmakers-hands-obama-considers-his-options/2013/04/13/9067a1e4-a38b-11e2-9c03-6952ff305f35_story.html

US Government Backs away from DIA estimate on PDRK nukes.

 

"At the hearing Thursday, Rep. Doug Lamborn, R-Colo., read aloud what he said was an unclassified paragraph from a secret Defense Intelligence Agency report that was supplied to some members of Congress. He said, reading from the report: "DIA assesses with moderate confidence the North currently has nuclear weapons capable of delivering by ballistic missiles, however the reliability will be low.'' The reading seemed to take Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, by surprise, who said he hadn't seen the report and declined to answer questions about it.  Foxnews

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DIA's language was carefully "arranged" to display the level of confidence in this judgment that they possess.  Intelligence work and especially judgments like this are a matter of expertise and probabilities.

The paragraph that a congressman quoted at a hearing yesterday was marked "unclassified" in the document disseminated.  the document as a whole was classified "secret."  In US law each paragraph is classified separately but the document as a whole is classified at the highest level contained within.

Some press person implied yesterday that DIA's judgments cannot be trusted because they were wrong before the Iraq War.  Yes, that is true.  It is also true of CIA, all the armed forces intelligence branches and NSA.  The only people who "got it right" was State INR.  Rumsfeld proved in that episode that the Executive Branch can be so abusive to one or more of the IC agencies that the agencies will simply say whatever is desired.

This picture of Brennan at the hearing yesterday is priceless.  pl  

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/12/north-korea-capable-arming-missile-with-nuclear-warhead-according-to-pentagon/#ixzz2QFrVENj7  

 

Nessy found! At last!

"It was slowly moving up the loch towards Urquhart Castle and it was a dark grey colour. It was quite a fair way from the boat, probably about half a mile away but it’s difficult to tell in water.' After watching the object for five to ten minutes, Mr Edwards said it slowly sank below the surface and never resurfaced. 'I’m convinced I was seeing Nessie as I believe in these creatures. Far too many people have being seeing them for far too long,' he said. 'The first recorded sighting was in 565AD and there have been thousands of eye witness reports since then. 'All these people can’t be telling lies. And the fact the reports stretch over so many years mean there can’t just be one of them. I’m convinced there are several monsters.' Steve Feltham, who has dedicated the past 21 years to hunting for Nessie was unequivocval. 'It is the best photograph I think I have ever seen,' he said. From his base on Dores beach and has studied many Nessie sighting photographs. 'I think the images are fantastic - that’s the animal I have been looking for all this time,' he said yesterday. 'I would say it doesn’t prove what Nessie is, but it does prove what Nessie isn’t, a sturgeon which is a fish that has been put forward as one of the main explanations as to what Nessie could be but this hasn’t got a serrated spine like the sturgeon.  Daily Mail

Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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"And now for something different"  The game is afoot!  Can Bigfoot be far behind?  pl

Open North Korea thread

Let's have an indefinite open thread on the developing Korea situation.  pl

Pogo revisited

 

"Algeria’s unilateral decision to attack kidnappers at a natural gas plant — while shunning outside help, imposing a virtual information blackout and disregarding international pleas for caution — has dampened hopes that it might cooperate militarily in Mali, U.S. officials said. The crisis has strained ties between Algiers and Washington and increased doubts about whether Algeria can be relied upon to work regionally to dismantle al-Qaeda’s franchise in North Africa. “The result is that the U.S. will have squandered six to eight months of diplomacy for how it wants to deal with Mali,” said Geoff D. Porter, an independent North African security analyst. “At least it will have been squandered in the sense that the Algerians will likely double down on their recalcitrance to get involved. They’ve already put themselves in a fortress-like state.” "  Washpost

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The continuing phenomenon of US inability to deal with MENA countries on their own terms rather than on the basis of our imagined images of these places is just awful.

I wrote an article in FP on-line years ago in which I argued that US illusions about Iraq were the source of of our major difficulties there.

I see that we have learned nothing since then.  pl 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/algerian-reticence-spoils-us-strategy-for-region/2013/01/18/7af23fbe-617c-11e2-89a2-2eabfad24542_story.html?hpid=z1

The anti-clericals and the gay lobby vs Francis

"Father Lombardi repeated assertions by a prominent human rights campaigner that there had been “no compromise by Cardinal Bergoglio with the dictatorship.” The debate has simmered in Argentina, with journalists there publishing articles and books that appear to contradict Cardinal Bergoglio’s account of his actions. These accounts draw not only on documents from the period, but also on statements by priests and lay workers who clashed with Cardinal Bergoglio. "  NY Times

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There are always anti-clericals.  They hate priests .  They have always hated priests.  Their prejudice is dignified by its persistence.  Mark Twain was among them.  "Mankind will only be free when the last priest is hanged in the guts of the last king."  (either "Innocents Abroad" or "A Connecticutt Yankee at King Arthur's Court")

On the other hand we have the gay lobby.  These folks have been so succesfull at recruiting support from media gay people, media corporations and the congress that it has become axiomatic to say that any opposition to their program of normalization will be attacked with the fury and deceptive self assurance that is usually associated with AIPAC.

Francis does not believe that gay marriage is justifiable for his church, therefore Francis must be attacked in the most horrendous terms.  Francis must be said to be a fascist and supporter of fascists.  How contemptible.

pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/16/world/europe/pope-francis-praises-benedict-urges-cardinals-to-spread-gospel.html?_r=0

Thoughts on Korea and "Progress" in Afghanistan

Korea - The DPRK has withdrawn from the Armistice of 1953.  Does that mean that they consider themselves to be at war with the UN once again?  If so, what are the US and the UN doing to prepare for defense against aggression in Korea?  Are dependents being evacuated and US civilians resident in Korea being encouraged to leave?  Are the missing parts of 2ID being returned to Korea?  Are they there already for the exercise?  I khow that USFK  has worked endlessly and expensively on the early warning problem in Koreaa.  How confident are they that we would have substantial early warning of hostilities initiated by the DPRK?

Afghanistan - "Everybody" who is anybody in the media or government prattles endlessly about "the progress we have already made in Afghanistan."  What the hell does that mean?  We have made progress in killing off AQ people and their organization, but anyone who who thinks we have "made progress" in pacifying Afghanistan and making it a place unfriendly to jihadi Islam is either a delusional COINista or just lying to support BHO Administration policy.  THERE IS NO "PROGRESS" IN counterinsurency in Afghanistan.  Give it up!  pl

North Korea says 'prepare for war' - Telegraph

 

"The immediate response from North Korea was to announce that it was withdrawing from the armistice that has kept the peace on the peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953 and the curtailment of the hot-line that has linked the governments in Pyongyang and Seoul and is meant to serve as a direct link in times of crisis. Although the North's rhetoric is more belligerent than usual, analysts say the regime is unlikely to be looking for a full-scale conflict. The problem is that given heightened tensions, a relatively minor incident could act as a flashpoint to a far more serious clash. Pyongyang has also threatened to unleash its missile to turn both Seoul and Washington into "a sea of fire," while in a statement Friday, the North Korean foreign ministry added that a "second Korean War is unavoidable." "  The Telegraph

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"a second Korean war is unavoidable?"  Hey!  Maybe the Korea wonks should take these people seriously.   These lunatics may not yet have the ability to strike South Korea or Japan with ballistic missiles, but they certainly could push across the DMZ in the direction of Seoul.  They have been practising for that for decades.  They could also raise hell in the west coast islands.

If allowed to persist in their present, well demonstrated, march towards an effective ICBM with nuclear warheads they will eventually hold Hawaii and the west coast of the US at risk.

Let's get serious about this menace and let the Izzies fret over their own enemies.  pl  

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/9917155/North-Korea-says-prepare-for-war-following-fresh-UN-sanctions.html

Chadian Soldiers in Mali Kill Mokhtar Belmokhtar - TTG

Aljazeera reports:

"On Saturday, March 2, at noon, Chadian armed forces operating in northern Mali completely destroyed a terrorist base ... The toll included several dead terrorists, including their leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar," Chad's armed forces said in a statement read on national television. Belmokhtar claimed responsibility for the seizure of dozens of foreign hostages at the In Amenas gas plant in Algeria in January in which more than 60 people were killed. The French military, which is leading the offensive in northern Mali, has so far said it cannot confirm the information.

The purported death of Belmoktar comes a day after Chad's president said their troops killed Abou Zeid, the other main al-Qaeda commander in the region, a claim the French also said they could not confirm. Algeria's El Khabar newspaper said on Saturday that Algerian security services, who were the first to report Abou Zeid's death, had found his personal weapon and examined a body believed to be his. "Confirmation of Abou Zeid's death remains linked to the results of DNA tests done on Thursday by Algeria on two members of his family," it said. Analysts said the death of the two commanders would mark a significant blow to the rebellion in Mali. "Both men have extensive knowledge of northern Mali and parts of the broader Sahel and deep social and other connections in northern Mali, and the death of both in such a short amount of time will likely have an impact on militant operations," Andrew Lebovich, a Dakar-based analyst who follows al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), told Reuters.

-------------------------------------------------------------

If the reports prove true, that's two key jihadist leaders in two days. Of course we've seen how many times some Taliban leaders were reported to be killed. At least in this case there are troops on the scene rather than drones in the air to help verify the identities. 

What I find most significant is that it was Chadian forces that did the deed. Africans solving an African problem. The French are there to plan, direct and support. They are also using the Tuaregs of MNLA for intelligence, reconnaissance and guides for the Chadian and French forces. We should be studying this campaign in our military schools.

Two thoughts

 

Happy Sequester Day! 

- SCOTUS is hotly engaged in issues involving a suit brought by Shelby County, Alabama regarding the designation of particular jurisdictions in the United States as past and present sinners in the matter of voting discrimination directed at African-Americans.  The crux of the matter is the ability of the Congress to imply by designation that some Americans are more racist than others and that this proclivity is a feature of geographical and cultural concentration mainly in the South.  This is a notion dear to the hearts of many in the North who continue to think of the South as a conquered land that is inhabited by primitives who must be firmly "guided" towards virtue.  I think of this as the Thaddeus Stevens theory of American Salvation.  Not surprisingly many Southerners resent this paradigm.  SCOTUS may well overturn part of the law.  I actually think that would be unfortunate.  There HAS been widespread voter dicrimination in parts of the US.  Indeed, there are places in the North that are covered by the strictures of the present act.  IMO, the best remedy for the problem of differential application of the law would be to make the law applicable to all jurisdictions within the US.  "What is good for the goose is good for the gander."

- In the context of the sequester DoD needs to have authority to transfer funds from one designated appropriation account to another as needed to make sure that DoD has the ability to make rational reductions of expenditures rather than blindly applying funds to categories that Congress happened to put money in during more hopeful times.  pl

"Hundreds of foreign jihadists leave Syria amid intensive clashes" Xinhua

 

"Hundreds of foreign jihadist fighters joining the battles against the Syrian troops were seen leaving Syria on Tuesday through borders with neighboring Turkey, the opposition Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. The reason behind the withdrawal is still vague, said the Observatory, citing one fighter as saying that his comrades "have been pulled out of Syria to join jihadists in Mali." The Observatory said the fighters pulled out from Syria's northwestern province of Idlib, a main hotspot in Syria's long- standing conflict. The Syrian government has for long accused Turkey of making its lands as routes for the foreign radical fighters in order to fight against the Syrian administration. "  Xinhua

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I picked this up in a comment by TTG yesterday.  What is going on here, if anything?  If this were true it would be bad news for the rebels in Syria.  On the other hand, if these fellows want to go fight the French Army and Air Force in northern Mali,  they will get a warm reception.  pl 

 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-02/26/c_124391005.htm

"... Why A Quick Visit To The ER Costs As Much As A Semester At Harvard." Time

 

"The total cost, in advance, for Sean to get his treatment plan and initial doses of chemotherapy was $83,900…The first of the 344 lines printed out across eight pages of his hospital bill — filled with indecipherable numerical codes and acronyms — seemed innocuous. But it set the tone for all that followed. It read, “1 ACETAMINOPHE TABS 325 MG.” The charge was only $1.50, but it was for a generic version of a Tylenol pill. You can buy 100 of them on Amazon for $1.49 even without a hospital’s purchasing power. Dozens of midpriced items were embedded with similarly aggressive markups, like $283.00 for a “CHEST, PA AND LAT 71020.” That’s a simple chest X-ray, for which MD Anderson is routinely paid $20.44 when it treats a patient on Medicare, the government health care program for the elderly.

Read more at http://wonkette.com/502126/time-magazine-helpfully-explains-why-a-quick-visit-to-the-er-costs-as-much-as-a-semester-at-harvard#mc0725bJGs5HO03I.99

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Every person in the US should read this article.  Time Magazine has performed a notable public service in researching and publishing this piece.

What is revealed here is that much of the cost inflation in American health care is simply created sui generis by health care institutions that reason backwards from desired income to the creative imagining of what they would like prices to the consumer to be.

Non profit business are often the most profitable from the point of the view of those who run them.  This is a prime example.  pl  

US Army to lose 200,000 soldiers

"Odierno told Congress earlier this week that sequestration might force the Army to cull another 100,000 troops from its ranks. Speaking at Brookings he went further, estimating that beginning with the 80,000 already scheduled, “in the end, it’ll be over 200,000 soldiers that we will have to take out of the active duty component National Guard and Army Reserve” if sequestration is implemented for the long term. “We’ll take almost a 40 percent reduction in our brigade combat teams once we’re finished,” he cautioned"  Defense News

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The USMC will of necessity take a similar cut.  It will take a while for reality to set in among the service staffs and the JCS but in the end procurement of equipment and sponsored R&D will slow to almost nothing and a lot of force structure will be shifted into the reserve components.  They are inherently less expensive.

The BHO Administration can talk all it wants to about a "pivot to the Pacific" but there will be neither forces for aland war there, nor the money with which to fight such a war on the Pacific rim.

Basically, this will mean the end of an era of  hegemonism in US political thinking.

IMO the US Navy and USAF will be the "favored children" in this new world.  pl  

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130215/DEFREG02/302150020/Chief-Sequestration-Could-Cost-U-S-Army-200-000-Soldiers?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

Banana Joe won and BHO demagogued.

 
 

"Like many of you, I can no longer watch important live televised addresses now without the wit and wisdom of the many virtual friends who live in my iPhone. How funny we can be, stopping the wisecracks and the spot fact-checking long enough to appropriately acknowledge the president’s “They deserve a vote” refrain for grieving survivors of victims of gun violence. We go from snark to somber so fast. It’s exhausting and also distracting. "  Washpost

---------------------------------

Demagogery?  I wouldn't know really.  Unable to force ourselves to watch the political nonsense, we watched the second night of the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show from Madison Square Garden. I am pleased (sort of) to report that Best in Show was won by "Banana Joe," the Affenpinscher from the Netherlands.

Well, it is "sort of" because I  really thought the German Wire Haired Pointer should have won.  "Oakley" is a fine dog.  He wuz robbed.

Obama?  Apparently he called for decisive votes in Congress on all his proposals.  Fine, give them to him.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/tv/tv-review-another-sotu-delivered-to-the-peanut-gallery/2013/02/13/d3f0428e-7561-11e2-8f84-3e4b513b1a13_story.html

Bits and Pieces

-  Feinstein has decided not to allow witnesses at Brennan's hearing today.  I suppose that her sympathy for the goals of the drone and other assasination programs is so great that she could not do anything else.  Bruce Fein wanted to testify.  He has opinions somewhat different than hers seem to be.  IMO the main problem with the program described in the White Paper is the lack of judiciary review for decisions to kill that are NOT made in a situation of "imminent" attack on the US or Americans.  I don't think many would fault the government for strike missions conducted when attacks are actually "imminent" but the White Paper does not require true imminence for a strike to be made solely as an Executive Branch decision.  A solution is available.  A federal court can be created, analogous to the FISA courts to review the evidence and decide on the sufficiency of need.  This should apply to all such "kill orders," not just to those applied to Americans.

- "Universal backgrund checks," "Gun trafficking," and "Mental health inputs to gun sale data bases" are emerging as legislative items that might be passable  in Congress.  If the advocates for these measures want something other than an opportunity to vent their scorn for those who disagree with them they need to make public as soon as possible the exact text of what will be proposed in Congress.  the details will matter greatly.  Does "universal" include family transfers of firearms or sale to a neighbor?  Does "universal" require background checks for the loan of a weapon at a range or on a hunting trip?  Will "gun trafficking" include the sale of a firearm to someone who lives across any state border?  i.e., if I wish to sell a rifle to someone in West Virginia would a background check be required?  Will the federal or state government be allowed to retain a record of the sale of a firearm?  Will proposed law allow and require the transfer of mental health data to firearms background checks data bases?  If so, what kind of data can be transferred?  pl

Why not in the US?

"GWEN IFILL: Well, let me ask you this, Professor Waxman. If this only applies to Americans on foreign soil, why wouldn't this reasoning apply to Americans on U.S. soil at home?

MATTHEW WAXMAN: Well, what one of the things that the lawyers -- the drafters of this memo do is try to explain that this is an analysis of a limited set of facts, a set of facts that were probably provided by senior officials to deal with situations that confront them in the real world."  Newshour

----------------------------------------

Yes, Gwen, why would this not apply to strikes on US Soil?  pl 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/law/jan-june13/memo_02-05.html

The Skeet Shooter

Is this gun a Savage Model 24?  pl

Savage Model 24  pl  

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/02/obama-skeet-shooting-photo-conspiracy-theories.html

"Legio Patria Nostra"

 

Watch the video.  It looks like the drop may have been marshaled and launched from a French airfield.  pl

http://www.businessinsider.com/french-drone-records-legion-paratroopers-mali-david-cenciotti-the-aviationist-2013-1

MNLA Tuaregs Take Kidal - TTG

DAKAR, Jan 28 (Reuters) - Secular Malian Tuareg MNLA rebels said on Monday they were now in control of the northern town of Kidal after their former Islamist allies abandoned it.

"Now it is us who are in control," Colonel Mohamed Ag Najim, the MNLA's military commander, told Reuters by satellite phone from the northeastern town, which was the last stronghold occupied by al Qaeda-allied Islamist fighters after Gao and Timbuktu were taken by French and Malian troops.

Asked where fighters from the Islamist Ansar Dine group which held the town were, Ag Najim replied: "They are gone". Another MNLA rebel contacted by Reuters gave the same account but there was no immediate independent confirmation. 

--------------------------------------------------------

I expected the MNLA to make their move at some point. I'm quite sure they were none too pleased about being double crossed by the Salafists. Payback time. The MNLA said it is ready to work with French troops and fight terror organizations. However, it said it would refuse to allow Malian soldiers in Kidal and the other towns under its control in northeastern Mali, following allegations that the troops killed civilians suspected of having links to the Islamists. Some reports have said this creates a dilemma for the French. I don't see it that way. The only force capable of going after the Salafists in the mountains of Kidal and northern Mali are the Tuaregs. Unless the French are willing to help, which I don't see happening, the Malian army and the ECOWAS forces cannot beat the Salafists and the secular Tuaregs. It's time for Bamako to choose its enemies.

A few hours ago this report appeared on expatica.com. It seems the French are helping Bamako choose wisely.    

--------------------------------------------------------

French troops have taken up position at the airport in Kidal, local sources said Wednesday, the third major city in northern Mali after Gao and Timbuktu. "A French plane landed on the runway at Kidal aerodrome," said a senior local official, who also reported seeing helicopters. "They have taken up position around the aerodrome," he added. 

His account was confirmed by a regional security source. "We confirm that French aircraft are on the Kidal landing strip and that protection helicopters are in the sky," said the source.

A senior Tuareg figure in Kidal also confirmed the report, as did a spokesman for the Islamic Movement of Azawad, which recently said it had taken control of Kidal. "The French have in fact taken up positions" on the landing strip, said the spokesman. "Our leader is currently talking with them," he added. 

-------------------------------------------

Ah, système D.

"Vive la mort, vive la guerre, vive le sacré Légionnaire!"

 

"French, Malians secure Timbuktu in rebel-held north" Reuters

 
 

"French and Malian troops were on Sunday restoring government control over the fabled Saharan trading town of Timbuktu, the latest gain in a fast-moving French-led offensive against al Qaeda-allied fighters occupying northern Mali. The Islamist militant rebels have pulled back northwards to avoid relentless French air strikes that have destroyed their bases, vehicles and weapons, allowing French and Malian troops to advance rapidly with air support and armored vehicles. A Malian military source told Reuters the French and Malian forces reached "the gates of Timbuktu" late on Saturday without meeting resistance from the Islamist insurgents who had held the town since last year. The advancing troops were working on securing the town, a UNESCO World Heritage site and labyrinth of ancient mosques and monuments and mud-brick homes, ready to flush out any Islamist fighters who might still be hiding among the population. "  Reuters

-----------------------------------

This is an example of what professional and skilled troops can do against guerrilas in country as "open" in topography as Mali, Niger, Chad or Libya.  The populations in these African countries are small, and the towns are few.  This greatly simplifies the task of clearing the  handful of towns in the desert.  The same sort of speedy result would have been possible against Qathafy's forces if the opposition to him had been other than undisciplined and untrained guerrilas themselves.

It is nevertheless true that the post offensive situation in Mali or any of these places will require a continuing French presence at some level for a long time to prevent the return of the Islamist guerrillas.  The Malian Army is no more capable of defeating insurgencies on their territory than are the armies of Iraq or Afghanistan.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/27/us-mali-rebels-idUSBRE90O0C720130127

French/Malian forces advance to the north.

"French-backed Malian forces have seized control of the airport and a bridge near the city of Gao, an Islamist militant stronghold in the country's north. The French defense ministry said Saturday that fighting continues in the area, where French and Malian forces have advanced rapidly against the rebels. France began a military offensive in Mali three weeks ago, after rebels who seized control of much of the country's north, last year, began pushing toward the capital, Bamako. The rebels have been imposing a strict form of Islamic law on civilians. "  VOA

----------------------------------------

IMO the French/African forces will re-occupy all Mali up to the northern border.  This will happen rapidly.  After that they will face a campaign of infiltration and guerrilla warfare waged by the Islamists.

That phase of this war will last a long time.  The key to success in that longer war will be an alliance with the non-Islamist Touareg forces now in rebellion against the Malian government.  There are hopeful signs tht this may be possible.

The price for Bamako would be a large measure of Touareg autonomy.

Something to remember is that the French military is intimately familiar with these desert countries. That is the insignia of the "Regiment de Marche du Tchad,"  an "Infanterie de la Marine" unit.   pl  

http://www.voanews.com/content/french-backed-malian-forces-advance-on-gao/1591355.html

State Department briefing on Algeria attack

A complete run-down.  pl

Download OSACInAmenas012220131_update

British Army to number only 82,000 soon

"Unfortunately redundancies are unavoidable due to the size of the defence deficit that this government inherited and the consequent scale of downsizing required in the army," said Defence Secretary Philip Hammond. "We will have smaller armed forces but they will in future be properly equipped and well funded, unlike before. These redundancies will not affect current operations in Afghanistan, where our armed forces continue to fight so bravely on this country's behalf." Defence Mnagement.com

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Apparently this reduction in force will be followed by further cuts.  IMO what will result will not be a viable force for any sort of  serious overseas "work."  An overseas deployment requires several "echelons" of troops for sustainability.  At any one time, one "echelon" is engaged, one has just returned and another is preparing to go.  This strength level will not support that.  This strength is less than half that of the USMC.

It is also difficult to see how the post, camp and station structure of the army can be continued without closing many installations.  Additionally, the schools structure will be largely devoid of trainees.

Many people in the UK don't want a capable army.  That's good because they won't have one except for things like the Brigade of Guards and the Household Cavalry.  Prince Harry can fly the helicopter until it wears out.

This is really not funny.  A similar process will occur in the US as an inevitable part of debt reduction.  pl  

http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_story.asp?id=21936&utm_source=MailingList&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defence230113

The Kennedy Inaugural Parade

The VMI Cadet Corps is in the middle ground of this Washington Post photograph, first the staff and then the two battalions with the color party between.

It snowed the day before.  There was sleet in the night, and then the parade.  The parade began in 3rd St. SE near the capitol.  The route of march passed the equestrian statue of Grant, the one in which he is hunched over against the rain in the Wilderness.  Then we came down Pennsylvania Avenue to this point.  There were three inches of icy, salty, slush in the street.  You can see a bare patch of pavement just in front of the regimental staff.  The band in the foreground did not belong to us. 

The street has changed.  The "Occidental" restaurant still exists but it inhabits quarters on the lower floors of a large office building on the same site.  Down the street there are a few familiar landmarks like the spire of the old Post Office and the capitol itself but nearly everything else is gone including the trolley car tracks.

We turned right here into 15th Street and then, a block later left again into Pennsylvania Avenue.  The big reviewing stand was there in front of the White House.  At "Eyes Left" all you could see was Jack Kennedy standing with his hat held over his heart.  His beautiful wife was at his side.

We "fell out" at Washington Circle in the George Washington University campus half a mile away.

The buses waited there for the three hour trip back to school.

The VMI Corps will be in this inaugural parade.  pl

www.vmi.edu

Escobar on the Mali War

"The Tuareg-led NMLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad), via one of its leaders, now says it's "ready to help" the former colonial power, billing itself as more knowledgeable about the culture and the terrain than future intervening forces from the CEDEAO (the acronym in French for the Economic Community of Western African States). Salafi-jihadis in Mali have got a huge problem: they chose the wrong battlefield. If this was Syria, they would have been showered by now with weapons, logistical bases, a London-based "observatory", hours of YouTube videos and all-out diplomatic support by the usual suspects of US, Britain, Turkey, the Gulf petromonarchies and - oui, monsieur - France itself."  Pepe Escobar

---------------------------

An excellent and informative article.  I do not subscribe to the "knee jerk" Chomskyite economic determiist motivation that Escobar ascribes to the US and France, but, other than that, this is really "good stuff."  He also raises the question of why these particular Islamist revolutionaries are treated to a taste of the club while those in Syria are the heroes of Western elites.  The answer is simple.  Mali is far from Israel and the Israeli government foolishly wants Assad gone.  pl 

http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/OA19Dj02.html

"Some Hostages Killed, but Raid Rescues Many, Algeria Says" NY Times

"Kidnappers and at least some of their hostages were killed on Thursday as Algerian forces raided a gas facility where a heavily armed group of Islamist extremists was holding dozens of captives, including Americans and other foreigners, the Algerian government announced."  NY Times

--------------------------

This reminds me of the Egyptian "rescue" operation on Malta many years ago in which most of the hostages were killed.  I have a bad expectation in this.  For these 3rd world country the exercize of national sovereignty is more important than the lives of foreign hostages.

People should remember that when they take high paying jobs in such countries.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/18/world/africa/algeria-militants-hostages.html?pagewanted=1&_r=0

More on Senator Hagel

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Like COL Lang, I'm also very pleased that Senator Hagel was nominated.  Back in 2007 Esquire ran an in depth profile of Senator Hagel.  It was written by Charles Pierce, who is now their primary writer/correspondent at their Daily Politics Blog.  While he put up a short column on the Senator's nomination and why it is a good thing today, click over and read the much more in depth reporting he did back in 2007 if you're interested in more detailed information about Senator Hagel.**

Then go pop the popcorn, get your beverage of choice ready, and watch the show as the Senate, the news media, the blogosphere, and specific interests groups and think tanks like AIPAC, the Emergency Committe for Israel, AEI, Brookings, etc amuse us with their dysfunction, err, demonstrate why we have a mature and effectively functioning political system and news media!

* Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do NOT necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and or the US Army.

** Esquire does some really good in depth political reporting.  In the past couple of years they've done profiles or reporting on Congressman Paul, Roger Ailes, John Demjanjuk and often post the full transcripts of the interviews shortly after publishing the stories.

"Obama to nominate Chuck Hagel as new Defense secretary" USA Today

"President Obama plans on Monday to nominate Chuck Hagel, the former Republican senator from Nebraska and Vietnam War veteran, to lead the Pentagon as Defense secretary, according to two sources familiar with the nomination process. Hagel, 66, served two terms in the Senate from 1997 to 2009, and led an Army infantry squad in Vietnam in 1968. He was wounded in action there and received two Purple Hearts. An administration source confirmed that Hagel's nomination would be announced Monday. Both sources spoke on condition of anonymity because it had not been officially announced. "  USA Today

---------------------------------

I thank God Almighty for this.  pl 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/01/06/hagel-defense-secretary-nominee-obama-panetta/1810195/

Happy New Year From Alexandria

Happy New Year to all SSTers (and everyone else)

King Street, Alexandria, Virginia on New Years Eve - 2012  pl

General Norman Schwartzkopf Dies - TTG

Like any man, he had his strengths and weaknesses, his triumphs and failures. Over the next few days all this will be examined for noble and decent purposes as well as for petty and vindictive ones. Such is the nature of our society. I never knew the man or worked for him, but he was the speaker at my MOTC graduation dinner in 1988. I didn't hear a word he said. I was "all likkered up" and far too cynical at the time to pay attention. I didn't even remember he was there until someone reminded me several years later.

However, one particular incident in his career is enough to show me he was an honorable man and an officer worthy of those he commanded and the nation he served. This occurred in 1970 while serving as a battalion commander during his second tour in Viet Nam. 

"One of the most remarkable incidents in a distinguished career happened on this tour. When Colonel Schwarzkopf received word that men under his command had encountered a minefield, he rushed to the scene in his helicopter. He found several soldiers still trapped in the minefield. Schwarzkopf urged them to retrace their steps slowly. Still, one man tripped a mine and was severely injured but remained conscious. As the wounded man flailed in agony, the soldiers around him feared that he would set off another mine. Schwarzkopf, also injured by the explosion, crawled across the minefield to the wounded man and held him down so another could splint his shattered leg. One soldier stepped away to break a branch from a nearby tree to make the splint. In doing so, he too hit a mine, killing himself and the two men closest to him, and blowing the leg off of Schwarzkopf's liaison officer. Eventually, Colonel Schwarzkopf led his surviving men to safety. He was awarded the Silver Star for his bravery but, more importantly to Norman Schwarzkopf, he cemented his reputation as an officer who would risk anything for the soldiers under his command." (Academy of Achievement)

TTG

Amnon Lipkin-Shahak - dead at 68

One of nature's noblmen has passed from the scene.  I first knew him when he was head of IDF general staff intelligence.  His quiet intelligence and personal grace was always notable in a service not always memorable for the kind of restraint and moderation that he he typified. 

In retirement from the army he tried to found a centrist political party that would have a real hope of finding peace with the Palestinians and the Israeli government often asked him to act as a communication channel to the PLO and in particular to Yasser Arafat.

I remember walking on the Via Dolorosa in the Old City of Jerusalem with him.  It was a pleasant afternoon. Stores were open.  I stopped to chat with several shopkeepers.  One of them asked me what I was doing with HIM, meaning Amnon.  I told the man that this one was different and then began to include General Shahak in the conversation.  I acted as his interpreter.  A group gathered around us as we talked of business from tourism, conditions of life and hopes for the future.  One man said that he could not get the city government to deal with his electricity supply for the store.  Amnon made a note and said that he would call Teddy Kolleck, the mayor.

When we walked away the first shopkeeper sad to me, "yes, he is different."  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/world/middleeast/amnon-lipkin-shahak-israeli-peace-negotiator-dies-at-68.html?_r=0

Calm Down on Gun Control

 
 

"... Rep. Jerrold Nadler, D-N.Y., who said after the shootings: "If now is not the time to have a serious discussion about gun control and the epidemic of gun violence plaguing our society, I don't know when is." Or CNN's Piers Morgan who, on his show, asked a defender of the Second Amendment: "How many more kids have to die, before you guys say, 'We want less guns, not more'?" Or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who recently demanded that Congress pass gun-control legislation and said this: "If this moment passes into memory without action from Washington, it will be a stain upon our nation's commitment to protecting the innocent, including our children." Intending to capitalize on the tragedy, the antigun crowd insists that this is precisely the time to talk about toughening the nation's gun laws. After all, they say, you want to have such a dialogue when people are thinking about the issue."  San Francisco Chronicle

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Piers Morgan is a "no-class" carpetbagger from the UK and the other two are, after all, New Yorkers, so what can one expect? 

This author, who is from the Washington Post writers group, has a valid point.  This level of tragedy should demand something other than the crude hucksterism of perpetually weeping TV "newsies" intent on bull-dozing their way to their goal of a disarmed US public.  pl 

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/navarrette/article/Gun-debate-needs-a-waiting-period-4129691.php#ixzz2FVFwxQST

 

We are headed for the cliff.

 
 

"Late Thursday, House Republicans said they rejected an offer from the Obama administration that was presented by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and White House Congressional Liason Rob Nabors in meetings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill. The $4 trillion offer would have raised taxes $1.6 trillion over a decade and cut $400 billion from Medicare and other entitlements, to be worked out next year. It would also have extended the payroll tax cut, raised the estate tax to 45 percent on inheritances over $3.5 million, kept Medicare reimbursement rates from being cut (the "doc fix"), extended unemployment insurance and added $50 billion in infrastructure/stimulus spending in the first year, with more such spending in the future. House Republicans characterized the offer as a joke. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, called it a "step backward, moving away from consensus and significantly closer to the cliff, delaying again the real, balanced solution that this crisis requires."   CBS News

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I am coming to the conclusion that neither party wants a solution to the "fiscal cliff" dilemma.  If they did they would make a deal and they would do it today.  Instead, the parties seem to see an advantage in allowing the various disasters to occur.  If they do that then it becomes theoretically possible to blame the other side for; higher taxation, higher unemploymet, lower securities markets, etc.  If that is what they are doing it is a reprehensible and risky idea.  pl 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57556312/obama-taking-fiscal-cliff-fight-to-the-public/

More Logrolling on Syria from the Washington Poat

"None of the battles alone represented the kind of decisive military victory that the rebels need if they are to claim control of an entire city or province and prod the international community for greater demonstrated the capacity to capture any of the country’s major cities, and whether they will ever be in support. The rebels, most of them grouped loosely under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army, have not a position to dislodge the regime from the heavily guarded capital without help is in question." Liz Sly

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It should be added that the menagerie of rebel groups has not been able to hold ANY ground at all against government forces when they wish to retake it.   It seems Sly knows which way the wind blows at the Post.   It is well established that that the editorial board of the Washington Post is in thrall to the neocons and the Wilsonians.  Now, it appears that front page "news" is also to be the instrument of interventionist propaganda that the rest of the paper has been.

I make it a practise at Washington meetings on Syria to challenge the data.  I do this because there is no accurate data except that held under secrecy by the US Government.  Such challenges are protested as unfair because there is much "data" broadcast by the rebel propaganda machine.  This propaganda is inherently unreliable.

Nevertheless, we now have two Washington analysts, Jeffrey White of WINEP and Joseph Holliday of the Institute for the Study of Warfare (a Kagan/Nuland dominated thinktank) proclaiming that the forces of the Syrian government are in decline.   Thus far they say that their conclusion is based on rebel "data."  White is a retired DIA executive and analyst and Holliday is a military reservist who spent some time in Iraq and Afghanistan.  I suppose he is a captain or a major in the reserves.  Are they really basing their estimate of the Syrian civil war's "direction" on BS from the rebels or do they have better information than that?  Surely they are not feeding us more BS from the IDF.  If not that, then what?

One would think that the rise of pharaonic rule tinged green in Egypt would give pause to the naive and the cynical.  Surely the analogy to Syria is clear.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-making-advances/2012/11/25/1cfcc8cc-372c-11e2-9258-ac7c78d5c680_story.html?hpid=z3

 

 

What About the Pilgrims?

"It's all very exciting to imagine that," Speth said, standing on the dock at Founders Pier as the crew worked to prepare the vessel for a week-long celebration. Alexandria is one of six port cities the ship will visit this summer during a promotional tour to kick off a year-long commemoration of the 1607 Jamestown settlement.

There will also be stops in Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Newport, R.I., and Boston. Numerous other celebrations are planned throughout the year, and a Web site devoted to teaching young students about the ship's first journey offers free lesson plans to educators.

The Godspeed -- a re-creation of one of the three ships that carried the country's first permanent English-speaking colonists from England to the commonwealth, where they landed May 14, 1607 -- replaces a replica built in the 1980s. It will also serve as an exhibit at Jamestown Settlement, a living-history museum of 17th-century Virginia.  Washpost

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1607 - Jamestown.

1620 - Plymouth

1630 - Massachusetts Bay colony

Get it?

1607 is 13 years before 1620.

1607 is 23 years before 1630.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Jamestown_Settlement_(1607%E2%80%931699)

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Pilgrims?

In 1622, the Jamestown colony had a population of around 1200.  In that year "strategic warning" failed yet again and an unexpected Indian attack on outlying farms and settlements killed 400.  20 women were carried away into slavery (Indian Slavery).

Yes.  It is true.  People in the Virginia Colony were just trying to make a living in a New World.  They were not ideologically motivated exclusivist religious fanatics.  Deplorable..

Pat Lang

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/26/AR2006052601936.html

Syria, France, Gaza, Natanyahu and Obama

"After almost twenty months, Syria's internal war appears to be approaching a decisive stage. Since early October, rebel forces have been on the offensive in key theaters, while regime forces are stretched thin, increasingly on the defensive, and giving ground. The conflict is evolving from a war of attrition (with the two sides primarily exchanging casualties) to a war of positions, with rebel forces seizing checkpoints, reducing the regime presence in the provinces, interdicting roads, and pressuring key regime strongholds and facilities. Barring a major change in Bashar al-Assad's approach or massive intervention by Hizballah and Iran, the regime's military situation will likely continue to deteriorate, perhaps dramatically, in the weeks ahead."  Jeffrey White

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"... while regime forces are stretched thin,"

White's conclusion that the Syrian Army is "stretched thin" is based on a belief that most of the Syrian Army is unreliable and cannot be used in counter-guerrilla operations.   If that is true and if only 30% or 50% of the Army is usable, then the failure of the government to mount a continuous series of operations to clear the north of rebel forces is understandable.  White does not make it clear what the basis is for his judgment that large parts of the Syrian Army are unreliable.  He is a meticulous analyst and i am sure that he has some solid basis for this judgment.  There are parts of various governments who have the means to know exactly which Syrian units have been employed and with what frequency.  Is this article a reflection of that kind of certain knowledge? 

White also opines that foreign assistance to the rebels would have a significant effect on the outcome of the war.  Well, of course it would.  The Syrian forces are very dependant on their equipment;  aircraft, armored vehicles and artillery pieces to be exact.  Training and equipping of the rebels with weaponry that is effective against these systems  would be very effective and possibly decisive.  The training could be done in Turkey or Jordan.  France has recognised the rebel kaleidoscope of groups as the government of Syria.  Is this a prelude to French action in this area?  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/syrias-internal-war-turns-against-the-regime

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"The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has exposed Obama and is forcing a reset of their mutual equations even before the US president gets started on his second term in the White House.  Asia Times

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Yes, the Gaza attacks are about Obama and not about HAMAS.  Natanyahu is demonstrating to BHO that he can do as he pleases and that the Congress will back him and not the president of the United States.  It will be interesting to learn what Obama will do about that, if anything.  pl  

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NK17Ak03.html

 

The Lebanese Factor in the generals' downfall

Does this picture look like your usual conception of the Middle East?  It was taken at a fashion show in Beirut a couple of years ago.  The show was for the collections of Lebanese designers.  Those are Lebanese women.

People in the US and in many other places shy away from the idea of cultural generalizations but I do not, with caveats, sometimes.

I have worked on the general subject of the Middle East and the Arab countries for 40 years.  After I left government I worked for a Lebanese owned construction materials company for 10 years.  The company's executives were almost entirely Lebanese citizens of all confessions.  I spent a lot of time in Beirut and Lebanon in general.  I know the country and I know them.