Sic Semper Tyrannis

Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Sequester - Trust?

-Syria .   So now we have the emergence of supposed proof of Assad's government being in violation of the self assigned "red line" of poison gas use against the rebels. Let's see the proof.  Let's see and hear something beyond Andrea Mitchell beating her drum for war.  This is especially important on this day when the arch deceiver (or buffoon) is fawned over at his presidential library.  He still does not admit that his administration chose to believe fabricated information in the matter of Iraq's posession of nuclear weapons and poison gas. Now we have Obama and his Sancho Panza man (Biden) walking the American people toward war in Syria in pursuit of god knows what interest of the US. Don't think for a minute that a "no fly zone" over Syria is anythng but war against the Syrian government.  There would be massive movement of air assets to Turkey, Israel and Jordan.  There would be sufficient air to air combat to destroy the Syrian Air Force.  There would be Search Air Rescue operations in Syria for downed air crew.  And at the end there would be a Saudi satellite jihadi state in Syria.  We should be trusting about this?

- Iraq.  Civil War on sectarian lines has begun again in Iraq.   We were told that we had done a good thing in Iraq.  GW Bush still says we did.  What good did we do?  We replaced one dictator with someone who is rapidly becoming another.  The government of Iraq is at war with the Sunni Arab population.  Is that not clear?

- Afghanistan.  Is it not clear that our effort to transform Afghanustan has failed?  Is it not clear that we should leave as soon as possible and stop throwng good money and people after bad and foolish efforts?

-The Sequester.  In the gun fight in the senate, the Obama Administration used every trick of propaganda and tear jerking to try to get its way.  All those efforts failed, failed miserably.  Now the same techique is being used to try to influence the American people to force the Congress to adopt Obama's budget.  IMO sequester cuts are being structured to cause maximum pain and inconvenenience to the general public.  White House tours are cut.  National monuments are closed.  Air traffic controllers are laid off so as to cause delays in air traffic with travelers waiting hours in aircraft for take offs.  At the same time, major defense contracters report no change in their bottom line.  that will probably change but for now...

Should we be trusting?  pl 

Thoughts on Korea and "Progress" in Afghanistan

Korea - The DPRK has withdrawn from the Armistice of 1953.  Does that mean that they consider themselves to be at war with the UN once again?  If so, what are the US and the UN doing to prepare for defense against aggression in Korea?  Are dependents being evacuated and US civilians resident in Korea being encouraged to leave?  Are the missing parts of 2ID being returned to Korea?  Are they there already for the exercise?  I khow that USFK  has worked endlessly and expensively on the early warning problem in Koreaa.  How confident are they that we would have substantial early warning of hostilities initiated by the DPRK?

Afghanistan - "Everybody" who is anybody in the media or government prattles endlessly about "the progress we have already made in Afghanistan."  What the hell does that mean?  We have made progress in killing off AQ people and their organization, but anyone who who thinks we have "made progress" in pacifying Afghanistan and making it a place unfriendly to jihadi Islam is either a delusional COINista or just lying to support BHO Administration policy.  THERE IS NO "PROGRESS" IN counterinsurency in Afghanistan.  Give it up!  pl

Karzai says we are the enemy

""The explosions in Kabul and Khost yesterday showed that they are at the service of America and at the service of this phrase: 2014. They are trying to frighten us into thinking that if the foreigners are not in Afghanistan, we would be facing these sorts of incidents," he said during a nationally televised speech about the state of Afghan women."  Chroncom

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"Karzai said in his speech that any foreign powers that want to keep troops in Afghanistan need to do so under conditions set forward by Afghanistan. "We will tell them where we need them, and under which conditions. They must respect our laws. They must respect the national sovereignty of our country and must respect all our customs," Karzai said. "

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It doesn't sound as though an agreement on post 2014 legal extraterritoriality (the SOFA) is any closer.  That last was meant to be ironic.  BHO has stated (properly I think) that there will be zero US troops in Afghanistan after 2014 without one.  This would not include the people in the Defense Attache Office in the embassy.  They are covered by the Vienna Convention on the status of diplomats. 

The conspiratorially minded already believe that the United States' effort in Afghanistan has been motivated by a desire to possess the goods of that wretched place.  Rare earths like lithium, oriental carpets, pistachios, opium, perhaps the odd Bactrian camel, a Yak or two; these are supposedly the spoils for which the US has poured out so many wasted billions of dollars and rivers of blood.

In fact, American policy has been based on the idiocy of armed nation building (COIN) as a fantasy of the foreign policy establishment.

Karzai is president of Afghanistan.  His remarks foreshadow the state of Afghan life after 2014.  He is "feathering his bed" for the time of our final departure.  He knows that what has been wrought in Afghanistan in the last 12 years will disappear like snow in the springtime.  pl

 

http://www.chron.com/news/world/article/Afghan-leader-alleges-US-Taliban-are-colluding-4342917.php

Karzai redux as pickpocket.

"Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has ordered that all U.S. special forces must leave Wardak province, just west of Kabul, within two weeks — citing allegations of disappearances and torture. In a statement Sunday, a spokesman for Karzai said, "after a thorough discussion, it became clear that armed individuals named as U.S. special force stationed in Wardak province engage in harassing, annoying, torturing and even murdering innocent people." "  NBC News

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Irony alert.

Everything will be all right.  This is just a misunderstanding.  They must have our people confused with some other group of foreign soldiers. 

Irony End.

As we said here a while back, the Afghans are busy picking our pockets.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/01/httpblogswsjcomwashwire20130111transcript-obama-karzai-press-conference.html

Some naif here in the US probably still believes that Karzai's government will give the US legal immunity.  Wanna bet?

Irony re-alert

I don't suppose this has anything to do with that province (Wardak) being largely Hazara.  The Green Berets  have been training the Hazara villagers there to defend themselves against the Pushtun Taliban. Karzai is a Puushun.

Irony-de-alert

The US government could well be described as a "ship of fools." pl 

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/24/17076037-afghan-president-orders-us-forces-out-of-key-province?lite

Karzai says go slow on immunity and alliance

"The Afghan president said Monday that a meeting of the nation’s elders should convene to decide whether U.S. troops staying in the country after 2014 would be immune from prosecution under Afghan law. President Hamid Karzai’s remarks were his first since returning from Washington, where he met last week with President Barack Obama about the future of the alliance between the two countries. "  Washpost

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As I said below in "Hamid Karzai - Pushtuun Pickpocket," people like Karzai, or any other Afghan, Iranian or Arab are easy to read if you have eyes to see, and ears to listen.   The trick is to see them the way they see themselves, not the way most Westerners want to see them.   IOW get out of your own skin and sandals and into theirs.  pl   

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/president-karzai-says-afghan-elders-need-to-decide-if-us-troops-can-be-immune-from-prosecution/2013/01/14/ff5c906a-5e2f-11e2-8acb-ab5cb77e95c8_story.html

Hamid Karzai - Pushtun Pickpocket

"... if we have a follow-on force of any sort past 2014, it’s got to be at the invitation of the Afghan government and they have to feel comfortable with it. I will say — and I’ve said to President Karzai — that we have arrangements like this with countries all around the world, and nowhere do we have any kind of security agreement with a country without immunity for our troops. That’s how I, as Commander-in-Chief, can make sure that our folks are protected in carrying out very difficult missions. And so I think President Karzai understands that. I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves in terms of the negotiations that are still remaining on the bilateral security agreement, but I think it’s fair to say that, from my perspective at least, it will not be possible for us to have any kind of U.S. troop presence post-2014 without assurances that our men and women who are operating there are in some way subject to the jurisdiction of another country. "  Barack Obama

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"We understand that the issue of immunity is of very specific importance for the United States, as was for us the issue of sovereignty and detentions and the continued presence of international forces in Afghan villages and the very conduct of the war itself. With those issues resolved, as we did today, part of it — the rest was done earlier — I can go to the Afghan people and argue for immunity for U.S. troops in Afghanistan in a way that Afghan sovereignty will not be compromised, in a way that Afghan law will not be compromised, in a way that the provisions that we arrive at through our talks will give the United States the satisfaction of what it seeks and will also provide the Afghan people the benefits that they are seeking through this partnership and the subsequent agreement. "  Hamid Karzai

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What's the old Kipling "saw" about trying to "hustle the East?"  IMO, we "wuz" robbed.

What happened in this meeting in Washington was that Karzai and the Afghans got everything they wanted and promised nothing that they cannot walk away from once they get through "picking our pocket" in slow motion between now and the end of 2014.

Karzai got any number of substantial concessions towards the notion of Afghan "sovereignty."

The most important of these was the assumption of control and security responsibility for the whole country's territory by the Afghan forces.  Are these forces ready and capable to do that?  They probably are not is the correct answer.  Will they ever be ready?  Maybe not.  1 - Afghanistan is unlikely to ever have enough income to pay for the forces we have created for them.  Where will they get their money if not from us, rare earths and oriental carpets?  2 - The apparent disparity between ethnic "nations" in Afghanistan and the composition of the "Afghan" Army is unpromising as a basis for the integrity of the state. 

Another American concession was the transfer of prisons and prisoners to Afghan government control.  This means that after the date of that change, US forces will be unable to detain hostiles encountered in the field in combat.  Remember, POTUS reminded us that those soldiers left in Afghanistan will still be in harm's way.

In the same way, the declaration that NATO (US) troops will be barred from entry into Afghan villages after the turn-over date this spring, means that we will not in any real sense control Afghanistan after this change.  We will be confined to our bases, offering assistance to the Afghans for them to accept or reject.

At the same time Karzai said that there were some things that the Afghan Army wanted to keep receiving from the US.  1- Intelligence - What?  The Afghans cannot collect information against targets lodged within their own peoples?  2 - Artillery - What?  They want a lot of artillery for the purpose of fighting a counter-guerrilla war in their own country?  3 - Aircraft, helicopters, etc.  They can't afford them.  They will never be able to maintain them without an "army" of foreign contractors paid for with US money.

What did the US get in return?  Permission to leave the classroom?

Karzai's statement about extra-territorial legal immunity for our soldiers is meaningless.  He says that based on our concessions to Afghan sovereignty he can "argue" for immunity for American troops in a way that does not compromise Afghan sovereignty or law.  All he promises is to "argue" and that argument is to be for an "immunity' that does not compromise anything important to the Afghans.  There are numerous bodies in Afghan "society" that can refuse his supposed argument.  The parliament, or a "loyah jurga," or mass opinion expressed in the streets, and most significantly in a general election before the end of 2014.  The immunity issue will surely be a major feature of that election after which Karzai will not be head of state and the new government will be free to repudiate whatever commitments Karzai might have made.

Yup, we "wuz" robbed.  You have to wonder if POTUS believes tht what he said yesterday  is actually true.  pl 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/01/11/transcript-obama-karzai-press-conference/

There will be no SOFA in Afghanistan

There is very little chance that the Afghan government will agree to post 2014 legal extra-territoriality for foreign troops in their country.

For some reason the US foreign policy establishment refuses to understand or to admit that it understands that for Muslim populations and governments it is not possible to accept the apparent superiority of the law of a non-Muslim country on their soil.  This is a religious issue.  Islam is a seamless garment.  In Islam all aspects of life are welded together into a seamless whole.  Islam is centered on law as the essence of the submision of man to God.  To allow "infidel" law to be applied as being in some sense a symbol of the superiority of the infidel power is simply unacceptable to Muslims.

Iraq and Afghanistsan regretfully accepted a de facto SOFA during the wars of the last decade.  They did that because they had no choice.  Once Iraq developed enough leverage to refuse that concession to the US, it did so.  Afghanistan will do the same.

there will be no US troops in Afghanistan after 2014.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOFA

Interesting times in Pakistan (FB Ali)

With its estimated 190 million population and its nuclear arsenal, Pakistan is an important country in its own right. However, its location makes it even more significant. Sitting next to Afghanistan, Iran and India, it plays a key role in the geopolitics of the region. It has been a major factor in the United States' two campaigns in Afghanistan, the first time playing a leading role in helping the Afghan mujahideen to expel the Soviet Union's occupying forces from their country, and, more recently, being blamed for the US's lack of success in defeating the Taliban insurgency.

Some recent developments, including some policy moves and changes, make it likely that the role that Pakistan has played in the region will change, as will the internal situation in the country. It is worth looking at these.

SST Potpourri - 28 november, 2012

"Despite  official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been  “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy  military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions of dollars each year. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently addressed the success of U.S. efforts against al Qaeda, saying “al-Qaeda has been significantly weakened in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its most effective leaders are gone. Its command, and control have been degraded, and its safe haven is shrinking….we have decimated core al-Qaeda.” The U.S. must still “finish the job” in Afghanistan, Secretary Panetta added, calling for continued commitment on both military and diplomatic fronts. "  Afghanistan Study Group

http://www.afghanistanstudygroup.org/2012/11/26/al-qaeda-decimated-but-us-considers-heavy-military-footprint-in-afghanistan/

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This is all nonsense.  The Afghans are not going to agree to a SOFA that gives US forces legal immunity in their  country and that will be the end of it.  The Pentagon should start preparing for that event.  pl

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William Hague has said today Britain will back the Palestinian bid for United Nations observer status if they agree to peace talks with Israel.  The UK will abstain from debating the issue at the UN General Assembly as there are no guarantees Palestine president Mahmoud Abbas will negotiate.   Express.coDespite official U.S. assessments that al Qaeda leadership has been “decimated,” some experts are insisting that the U.S. maintain a heavy military footprint in Afghanistan — a strategy that will cost billions

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So, the US and Israel will vote against non-member 0bserver status for the PA?  Why does the US continue with the farce of pretending to be an "honest broker" in this dispute?  The soon to be disunited Britain will abstain unless the Palestinians give up a right to press charges against Israel in the international courts?  The Palestinians will win the vote in the General assembly and then prefer charges against such as Natanyahu, Barak and Avigdor Lieberman.  This will expose these Israelis to extradition action by various member states.  Then Israel can be a prison for them in much the same way that Gaza is for the Palestinians.  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9708521/Britain-will-abstain-on-Palestinian-bid-without-assurances-says-William-Hague.html

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"Fresh clashes broke out in Cairo on Wednesday near Tahrir Square, as riot police fired tear gas and charged at Egyptian protesters angry about a move by President Mohamed Morsy to extend his powers." CNN International

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Egypt is on fire again.  There were 100,000 anti-Mursi demonstrators in Tahrir square yesterday.  The US media is obviously avoiding the subject of the imposition of a tyranny in Egypt.  It seems that the revelation of their own naivete two years ago is too much  for them to cope with.  And then there are the naifs and neocons in the governmenr who still cling to their hopes.  pl

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/28/world/meast/egypt-protests/?hpt=hp_t2

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"About 14 percent of the 1.4 million troops in the active-duty military are women. About 280,000 women were deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan. About 150 women died in those two conflicts. Although there may be growing support in the military to opening some jobs in combat units to women, there remains stiff opposition from the infantry, where the physical demands — like walking long distances carrying heavy loads and handling bulky weapons — are most demanding. In a widely circulated article, a female Marine Corps captain who served in Iraq and Afghanistan wrote in the Marine Corps Gazette this year that seven months in Afghanistan left her physically broken, with muscle atrophy in her leg and an ovarian condition that left her infertile. “I am confident that should the Marine Corps attempt to fully integrate women into the infantry, we as an institution are going to experience a colossal increase in crippling and career-ending medical conditions for females,” the article’s author, Capt. Katie Petronio, wrote. "  NY Times

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If I recall correctly there is a provision in law aganst womens' service in certain combat specialties in the infantry, armor and SF.  If that is so, then congressional repeal of that provision would also be necessary, but since the Congress can be expected to do anything "catchy" that appears popular, well...  I think that since these women see this as a civil rights jobs program issue they should be given the chance to "try it on." My only hope about this is that physical standards are not lowered to make this easier.  War is an equal opportunity employer.  It would be most unfortunate if some of these job seekers literally have to be carried.  pl  

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/servicewomen-file-suit-over-direct-combat-ban.html?_r=0

 

 

"US Military Battling To Stay In Afghanistan Past 2014" - The Guardian

"Afghanistan and the US have opened talks to keep American troops in the country  after most Nato forces go home in 2014, but the thorny question of immunity for  American soldiers, which in effect ended the US role in Iraq last year, is  likely to prove a stumbling block.  

The issue has been thrown into sharp relief by the Seattle trial of the US  army staff sergeant Robert Bales, who is accused of the massacring 16 Afghan  civilians, mostly women and children, during a shooting spree at their homes in  March. US prosecutors are seeking the death penalty but many Afghans, including  some of the victims' relatives, want to see him brought before one of their own  courts."  The Guardian

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-battling-to-stay-in-afghanistan-past-2014-2012-11#ixzz2CgJcMgUR

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This is going to go exactly the same way as the negotiations with Iraq went over a SOFA.  This is not a mutual security pact.  That kind of agreement was not a problem in Iraq.  A SOFA gives US forces legal extra-territoriality while in a given foreign country.

The case of SSG Bales is illustrative of the point of a SOFA.  Without a SOFA the Afghan government could demand that Bales be handed over for trial under Islamic law.  Actually, they could demand that any soldier be handed over  for any charge they wanted to make.

The wonkery across the world, the anti-Americans, the naive, etc., would probably think that a great idea.  Why should soldiers not be thrown to "the dogs"  or "the wogs"  if that is convenient.  After all, they are soldiers.  Isn't that the purpose for which they exist?  If they were worth more they would be working for a thinktank in Washington.

In spite of such sentiments, the SOFA problem will kill negotiations for a continued US presence.  The US military will not accept a SOFAless agreement and neither will the US population and its representatives in Congress.

Karzai may think that our desire for SOF basing in his "country," will cause us to bend on this.  It will not.  The generals, the wonks and the business looters may think that the "good times" will "roll on."  They will not.

Sooo, the US presence in Afghanistan will end at the end of 2014.  It will be lonely in the embassy.  pl  

 

Cut Defense and Prosecute the Corrupt

 "“U.S. and foreign contractors poured money into a limited number of Afghan powerbrokers who set up companies that were corrupt and did not perform. . . . In many cases, they also paid off insurgents to let them operate,” Cordesman wrote.

He suggested that the government “tightly control the influx of outside money, limit its flow to honest and capable Afghans at every level of government, and provide the transparency to allow Afghans to see how honestly and effectively the money is used.”"   Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghan-corruption-and-how-the-us-facilitates-it/2012/11/05/d7fbce5c-2520-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

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For years, I have told everyone in this wretched city (Washington) including Pincus that senior Americans (not sergeants) and their retired government buddies have been participating for years in the awarding of huge contracts to Afghans in or close to the government.  This is not news.  pl

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"... supplemental budgets were sought for the two wars, putting the costs, now near $1.5 trillion, on a credit card. Meanwhile, Defense’s core budget has risen about 4 percent a year, adjusted for inflation, except for the past two years. As Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) points out, President Obama’s plan to reduce 100,000 Army troops and Marines over the next five years will still leave ground forces larger than those existing at the time of the 9/11 attacks. Then there are the funds wasted on failed efforts to modernize weapons systems. According to a 2011 CSBA study, “Over the past decade, at least a dozen major programs were terminated without any operational systems being fielded. The sunk cost of the terminated programs . . . for example, totals some $46 billion.” The Pentagon also is paying hundreds of millions to upgrade some systems, such as the F-22 stealth fighter plane. "  Pincus

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/time-to-terminate-the-warfare-state/2012/11/07/67955d68-2502-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_story.html

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We can't afford this Defense Department.  Change the foreign policy, kill the acquisition contracts, pension people off after shrinking the ground forces and come home.  pl    

 

COIN failed again! Get over it!

"We will bear the heavy burden of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan for years. U.S. soldiers will continue to serve in the region, assisting Afghan (and sometimes Pakistani) security forces against threats to the stability of both nations, conducting raids on insurgents and terrorists and preventing a broader war in South Asia. This is what success looks like in such wars." John Nagl  

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This book was Nagl's dissertation paper.  It appeared in print just at the moment that "the generals" were seeking an explanation for their own ignorance of anything other than conventional warfare.  He was lucky and has been riding that "hobbyhorse" ever since.  Nagl's fate as something other than a minor professor at a minor college or a minor headmaster at a private day school hangs in the balance dependent on the judgment of history on the COIN (nation building) doctrine that he has counseled for over a decade.  He cites VN as an example of the failure that follows upon a failure of will.  There is a certain truth to that.   The US concluded a phased withdrawal from VN in 1973.  A ceasefire was in place and remained in place for two years.  All that remained of the US presence in VN were a mere two thousand advisers to the RVN forces.  They were assigned to the Defense Attache Office.  After two years the Congress of the United States passed a decree that forbade any further assistance to the RVN under any circumstances.  This decree reflected American public opinion in an atmosphere in which a soldier could not walk down an American street in uniform without seeing people turn away.  The Communist Vietnamese "took the hint" and attacked into a morale vacuum created at least in part by Congress's action.  The United States was not "driven from VN."  There were no American non embassy people there to drive out.  Does Nagl know better?"  Or is he simply so desparate to be justified that he would deliberately deceive?  He cites Germany, Japan, South Korea and Bosnia as examples of countries that have required a virtually eternal American presence for strategic reasons.  He expects us to accept these examples in comparisons made with Afghanistan.  He (and his neocon friends) made the same argument with regard to Iraq until the Maliki government "disinvited" us.  His Cold War and Balkan examples fall flat.  The US never  fought in Bosnia except for a few air strikes.  There has not been war in the other places for fifty or sixty years.  The American presence there was decided upon in conditions of peace.  The neocons like to claim that Germany was in a state of resistance during the Allied Occupation.  Nonsense!  Germany in those days was as quiet as a church.  I lived there as a child at the time and wandered the streets of Bremen and Frankfurt with my German and American friends.   In contrast, there is war, probably eternal war, in Afghanistan.  War is what the Afghans do best.  They are in the process of rejecting our (NATO's) presence as an alien "protein."  To "win" and transform Afghanistan into a simulacrum of the US would be a work of ages.  Nagl evidently thinks that would be a good idea.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-look-of-success-in-afghanistan/2012/10/19/94673f98-1a0b-11e2-aa6f-3b636fecb829_story.html

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"In 2009, when the White House approved plans to build a combined Afghan force of more than 300,000, the principal concern in Washington was the cost to sustain it once most U.S. troops depart, not the ability to assemble it. The sustainment cost is now projected at $4.1 billion a year, more than twice the Afghan government’s overall annual revenue. Much of that price tag will have to be borne by the United States, which already has spent almost $50 billion over the past decade to build the force. U.S. and NATO commanders say the Afghan army and police are progressing well despite an array of challenges that include Taliban intimidation, the lack of an existing officer corps, and rampant illiteracy, which makes it difficult to train soldiers in specialty skills." Washpost  

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What collection of idiots decided that it was a good idea to build a force bigger than Afghanistan could ever possibly afford without US money?  Ah!  Nagl's idiots.  pl

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/afghan-security-forces-rapid-expansion-comes-at-a-cost-as-readiness-lags/2012/10/20/38af200a-16cb-11e2-a55c-39408fbe6a4b_story.html?hpid=z1

We Have Met the Enemy and He is Us: The Responses to Green on Blue Problems in Afghanistan

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Several weeks ago the Washington Post** reported on one of the responses to the Green on Blue attacks in Afghanistan.  While the way this is labeled is not exactly right, as green on blue would be Afghan civilians attacking the US military (we use green for the population/host country nationals), blue, obviously for the military and in this case specifically the US and coalition forces, the problem does exist and does need to be addressed.  What the article tells us is that a guide has been developed for Afghan soldiers to teach them "...the strange ways of the American soldier. The goal is to convince Afghan troops that when their Western counterparts do something deeply insulting, it's likely a product of cultural ignorance and not worthy of revenge."

Given my understanding of how we interact with the Afghan National Security Forces, I have a hard time believing that they came up with this on their own.  My informed guess is that we came up with this.  This screams "thought up by someone who is in charge of mandatory, quartely training by powerpoint!"  This also tells me that we have given up, at least for Afghanistan, on trying to come to terms with our cross-cultural competency (3C) problems.  3C is all the rage in both the corporate and military worlds.  And it is important, the problem is that we have over ten years of research on it - some good, some meh, some bad - and it all focuses on the precursors to actually being cross-culturally competent.  The focus is on predicting who will be good at it and then trying to figure out what kind of training and education will get them to comptency (read that as proficiency).  We do not pay much attention to actually certifying anyone as cross-cultural competent in terms of being able to actually perform.  What the approach outlined in the WaPo artile indicates is that if we cannot get this right among ourselves, cannot police ourselves up so we do not do stupid things that cause blowback from the Afghans, we might as well mandate that the Afghans learn it.  That way, the next time there is an incident, and there will be, its not our fault - the Afghan's have the cross-cultural sensitivity manual and training, its their fault for not being understanding of our inability to get this right...  Whoever came up with this has got to be the same type of person  that thinks that going through a pdfed powerpoint on "bath salts" once a year is going to solve the problem of military personnel huffing the stuff...

"US commander in Afghanistan says he is "mad as hell"" Heraldsun

"ISAF commander General John Allen told US 60 Minutes program in an interview recorded before the latest incident, and scheduled to be aired today, that insider attacks were unacceptable.

"I'm mad as hell about them, to be honest with you," he said.  "We're  willing to sacrifice a lot for this campaign, but we're not willing to  be murdered for it."

Gen Allen said that just as  homemade bombs had become the signature weapon of the Iraq war, he  believed that in Afghanistan, "the signature attack that we're beginning  to see is going to be the insider attack"."  Heraldsun

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OK.  He's "mad as hell."  So what?   Perhaps he should move on.  NATO command in Brussels has been suggested as a destination for him. There he will find "natives" who like "frites with mayo" and who are not offended by seeing their colleagues naked in the showers, or by swearing and who may not be offended by personal family questions about their womenfolk.  Belgians are more used to our "brutish ways" and make allowances for Americans, Australians, Germans, etc., well, maybe not the Germans.

Having spent many years learning laboriously a whole and very full menu of do's and don'ts in the Islamic World I find all this to be a sick joke.  The Army and USMC have spent decades and much effort to produce officers who are career specialists in Islamic and Arab affairs.  Such officers don't make stupid mistakes like asking a Muslim to see a picture of his wife or even asking about her (them).

Have any of these specialist men or women been given a significant command in these wars?  If they have I have not heard of the event.  Instead the general officer of the line caste prefers to install in command people like themselves but often incapable of dealing with the "natives."

Allen is "mad as hell?"  Me too, I am mad as hell that this political marine is in charge out there rather than someone competent.  pl

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/five-die-in-nato-afghan-troop-firefight/story-e6frf7k6-1226485474885

 

 

"Taliban Outflank U.S. War Strategy with Insider Attacks" Porter and Noori

"... the Taliban have power over whether conditions return to a level that would allow resumption of the joint operations between NATO and Afghan forces, which have been touted as the key to preparing the ANA and the police to cope with the Taliban on their own. The Taliban have achieved a strategic coup by creating a high degree of U.S.-NATO fear and mistrust of the Afghan forces. Even if some joint operations are resumed, moreover, they will be limited to those approved by regional commanders, according to the new policy. And White House spokesman Jay Carney appeared to contradict the ISAF “return to normal operations” language, telling reporters, “Most partnering and advising will now be at the battalion level and above.” ISAF Commander Gen. John Allen has tried in the past to minimise the role of the Taliban in the insider killings, suggesting that as little as 10 percent of the Afghan soldiers and police who killed NATO troops were Taliban infiltrators. Most of the killers acted out of personal anger at their Western advisers, Allen argued."  Porter and Noori

---------------

General Allen can argue what he likes but the Taliban have found the key to a stratagem that will give the "coup de grace" to the Afghanistan COIN project.  The possibility of a nurturing, mentoring relationship lay at the heart of the plausibility of the theory of a gradual transfer of power from ISAF to the Afghan forces that NATO has tried so hard to create in its own image.  The Taliban's program of destroying the possibility is lethal to the effort.  General allen says that most of the killings are caused by Afghan hatred of their trainers.  Does he realize what he is saying?

The Newshour and John Nagl

The Newshour persists in inviting the COIN charlatan, John Nagl, to comment on the "progress" of the Afghan War.  Last night (transcript not yet available) they used him and Vali Nasr, dean of SAIS, for interrogation by Judy Woodruff.  For some reason the Newshour has misidentified Nagl as a retired lieutenant general when in fact he retired from the Army as a lieutenant colonel.  Perhaps they think that gives his remarks greater weight.  I wrote to them about this and they have changed the label on their website.

Nasr was the sensible person that he always is.  Nagl continues to expect us all to believe that all is well in Afghanistan, that the training of the Afghan military and police is proceeding well in spite of minor disturbances caused by the murder of NATO people by these same Afghan security forces.  Nagl said at the end of his self destructive comments that all will be well because the US will persist in Afghanistan for another ten years at least, and remain committed to Afghan security indefinitely.

Well, he doesn.t have anywhere else to go rhetorically.  When the end comes, his end as a public person will come with it.  Perhaps he could write another seminal book about how wrong he was in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  It could be entitled, "Learning to play Buzkashi without a horse."  pl

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/afghanistan2_09-17.html

"Deja Vu" in Afghanistan

""We're all seized with (the) problem," Dempsey was quoted as saying. "You can't whitewash it. We can't convince ourselves that we just have to work harder to get through it. Something has to change."" Timescall  

-----------------------------

Add this unsolicited statement by CJCS to the "stand down" order on combined operations with Afghan forces and you have, IMO, the death knell of the expeditionary war in Afghanistan.  If you make your living servicing this war, look for other work.

the situation in Afghanistan will not change.  The COIN illusion of change in the hearts of the Afghans is exposed as a deception perpetrated by ignorant fools.

The meeting between Dempsey and Allen in Kabul must have be a scene worthy of the art of the greatest of dramatists.

Look for Allen to go early in the new term and a suitably disguised rapid withdrawal to begin.  pl

http://www.timescall.com/news/nationworldnews/ci_21559125/army-gen-martin-dempsey-says-afghanistan-must-take

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-troops-ordered-to-make-major-reduction-in-joint-operations-with-afghan-forces/2012/09/18/71f34dd6-017d-11e2-b257-e1c2b3548a4a_story.html?hpid=z1

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Regiment_of_Foot

 

 

$180 million in airplanes and two US Marines lost to "raggedy assed guerrillas"

We have technology.  The Taliban guerrillas don't have technology.  They have the ability to think creatively "outside the box."  This base is in Helmand Province where the marines fought their private war for a year to make the province safe for the central government.

They wore our uniforms and drove through the gate to the airfield as though this were an episode of "Hogan's Heroes."  One would expect that a Pushtun version of Richard Burton in one of this commando roles would have led the expedition.  There was one survivor in the attacking party and he was captured wounded.  If he lives he will one day be a hero to his people.

The United States is pulling itself inside out over four KIA in Benghazi.  Hey! Look over here!  Look what happened at Camp Bastion!  These "ragged assed jihadis" dressed in our uniforms destroyed six Harrier jump jets.

At the same time, Afghan policeman are killing NATO soldiers at an ever increasing  pace.  2014?  Are you kidding?  Get out of Afghanistan in 2013 or settle in for another 50 years.  Pacification will take that long.  pl  

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/09/16/taliban-raiders-wore-us-uniforms-camp-bastion_n_1887751.html

The Nagl zombie, Afghanistan and the Newshour.

"LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: So, the basic problem in Afghanistan -- there are many -- one of them is that we're working in a country that's really been devastated by 30 years of war. So the human capital really isn't there.

In Iraq, the soldiers knew how to read. They didn't know how to fight. In Afghanistan, the soldiers know how to fight, but not how to read. And, unfortunately, it's harder teaching people to read than it is to teach them to fight.

So, we're struggling with basic human infrastructure problems. The other big problem is that we really took our eye off the ball in Afghanistan for so many years while we were focused on Iraq.

And we have been playing catch-up ball for the last couple of years.

And so as you rush to build a force in a very short period of time, some bad apples slip through.

And we're seeing some of that. We're also seeing continually cultural connection problems, so,

Americans, even after 10 years working in this country, burning Korans, American Marines desecrating Taliban corpses. And that sort of cultural conflict and tension does erupt into violence in this kind of society.

MARGARET WARNER: Is there any -- you mentioned the Iraq war. Is there any precedent for an occupation force, a force like the United States, training up such a huge indigenous force so quickly in modern warfare? 

LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: We tried to do similar things in Iraq, actually.

After quite cleverly disbanding the Iraqi force, we decided that that was a bad idea and decided to rebuild it. General David Petraeus worked hard in that effort to rebuild an Iraqi force, but he was working from a much larger force that had previously existed, a much better trained force.

MARGARET WARNER: And, as you said, they could read.

LT. COL. JOHN NAGL: And they could already read."  Newshour

--------------------------------

"And they could already read."  Yeah?  So what?  Does Nagl think that these Afghans are killing our men because they cannot read?  I was training 3rd world soldiers when Nagl was in diapers.  Our " manual" was the same warmed over colonial anti-revolution doctrine that Nagl worships.  It sounds better in French.  Their training never had anything to do with literacy.  "Reading" has little to do with basic soldiering, very little.

The Newhour in its headline manages to make it seem that LIEUTENANT COLONEL Nagl commanded the training of the Afghan army.  The Afghan "hands" here can tell us if that is true or if it is true that he trained some smaller number.  The false prophets of the COIN revelation included a number of people who had limited real experience of counter-revolutionary warfare but possessed a burning desire to write a book about what had been "shown" them on "the mountain."  Another man like that is Kilcullen who was a LIEUTENANT COLONEL in the Australian Army.  His real world experience seems to have been one year as the commander of a support COMPANY in East Timor.  The rest of the time he was some sort of analyst.  And then he wrote a book?  No, no, there were several articles.

Nagl says that if only we have patience and stay committed to the COIN mission in Afghanistan for another 10 years, then all will be well.   Perhaps if he had worked for imperial Britain in the mid-nineteenth century that might have been possible.  IMO we will be largely out of Afghanistan by the end 0f 2013.  That withdrawal will end Nagl's fantasy.

One must ask - what does the Newshour think it is doing?  pl

 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/military/july-dec12/afghanguest_09-05.html

 

"Global blivet" de Borchgrave

"Newsweek quotes one Afghan officer who says he understands why "our men are  shooting U.S. and NATO soldiers."

"I have been personally hurt by the way American forces behave toward my  soldiers, our villagers, our religion and culture. Too many of them are racist,  arrogant and simply don't respect us," he said.

U.S. soldiers are watching their backs against Afghan soldiers for fear of  insider attacks. Once cordial relations and visits to each other's quarters have  stopped. Some Afghan soldiers are Taliban guerrillas ordered to false-flag  volunteer to kill U.S. advisers."  de Borchgrave

-----------------------------------

"Too many of them are racist,  arrogant and simply don't respect us," he said.

I believe it.  In the time before 9/11, US  military relations with the Muslim World were a matter of military attaches, training missions, Green Beret missions, etc., The personnel requirements of ths work were quite small and could be "covered' with specialists who liked workig with foreigners, were adaptable, felt deep respect for people of alien culture and wanted a life of high adventure.

Since 9/11 the main forces of the Army and USMC are directly exposed to such alien populations.  The US arned forces are reflective of the collective thoughts, feelings and biases of the various US populations.  They have been taught by thei whole lives to believe that the USA represents the future of mankind and that any foreigner with any sense wants to be an American and that local customs, religion, and folkways are inhrently backward and something that the "natives" will abandon when they see the American model available for imitation.

No number of  "shake and bake" courses and classes given to soldiers on the subject of cultural sensitivity will change  the collective mentality of men and women who think they have been sent to Afghanistan or wherever to "save" the natives from themselves.

We were better off when working with "the natives' was left to those who enjoyed the work.  pl  

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/08/30/Commentary-Global-blivet/UPI-51611346323180/#ixzz254BTaQLK

 

"Avoiding Creeping Defeat in Afghanistan..." CSIS

"The US is not losing the war in Afghanistan in the classic military sense. The US, its allies, and Afghan forces still win virtually every direct military encounter. The problem is that this is a political war where the political impact of combat, politics, governance, and economics are far more important than tactical success in directly defeating the enemy. At this level, the insurgents still seem to have significant momentum and are certainly not being decisively defeated.

Moreover, tactical military success is no guarantee of a successful Transition. The choice between victory or defeat will also center around the success or failure of the Afghan government and Afghan forces after most US and ISAF forces largely withdraw in 2014, and major cuts occur in aid and military spending. As was the case in Vietnam, the US can win every battle and still lose the war."  CSIS Burke Chair

------------------------------------

All this could have been said of my biggest war, all of it.  pl

http://csis.org/publication/avoiding-creeping-defeat-afghanistan-need-realistic-assumptions-strategy-and-plans

Ragtag Revolts in Parts of Afghanistan Repel Taliban - NY Times

"In small mountain villages on Taliban turf in eastern Afghanistan, Pashtun tribesmen took up arms to fight the insurgents this summer, fed up with their heavy-handed tactics of closing schools and threatening families whose sons had joined the Afghan Army. Connect With Us on Twitter Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines. Twitter List: Reporters and Editors . The New York Times Ghazni and Laghman provinces have fought for the Taliban. “They wanted to make our children illiterate and miserable,” Malik Ghulam Rusal, a district elder, said about the Taliban. “We told them that if you want to wage jihad, go and fight the foreigners, not ordinary people. But they did not listen "  NY Times

----------------------------------------

Afghans will be Afghans.  This error on the part of the Taliban is much the same as the gross error made by AQ in Iraq.  The Wahhabi salafism of the jihadis does not allow for local variants of Islam.  The attempt to impose uniformity of practise was a fatal mistakr in Iraq.

My advice to the NATO command would be to stay away from this revolt.  If you touch it you will contaminate it in the eyes of the counter-insurgents.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/26/world/asia/ragtag-revolts-in-parts-of-afghanistan-repel-taliban.html

Syrian Shoot down, Taliban kill party goers. Cairo garbage

- The Syrian jihadi rebels say they shot down a government helicopter over Damascus .  They might as well take credit for this one.  The government has at least 175 more.  Wiki

- Taliban "party-poopers" beheaded 17 men gathered for traditional singing and dancing in Helmand Province where the marines have spent so much time on COIN in the last couple of years.  Taliban Islam does not tolerate such frivolity as music and dancing.  Hmmm.  Cotton Mather wasn't this much of a prude.

- Garbage in Cairo is collected by Coptic Christians who feed the edible parts to pigs.  President Mursi's relations with the whole Coptic "thing" is still rather indeterminate.  Last year htere was a Muslim inspired general round-up and wasted slaughter of the swine and as a result the Cairene population is faced with a crisis of garbage accumulation.

You couldn't make this stuff up if you were writing fiction nobody would believe it.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/afghan-officials-insurgents-behead-17-civilians-17084685

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrian-rebels-shoot-down-military-helicopter-over-damascus/2012/08/27/7a380314-f030-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/egypts-garbage-crisis-bedevils-morsi/2012/08/26/6fdfad1e-ec6a-11e1-866f-60a00f604425_story.html

 

 

Is there a US policy in the Islamic World?

I think that is a valid question:

- In Egypt we support consolidation of power by an obviously Muslim Brotherhood run government.  To that end, HC and her deputy, Bill Burns,  have traveled to Cairo to threaten and cajole the Egyptian military into accepting what the Egyptians know will become an Islamist state with all that promises for women, Christians, homosexuals, etc.

- In Afghanistan we are engaged in a very long, very costly war against an Islamist guerrilla army that has the support of many in that country.  It is claimed that the Afghan soldiers and police who are killing our men are merely "disaffected." Yes, but their disaffection is largely the result of their anti-kaffir xenophobia.  We are now in the process of abandoning the failed COIN strategy in favor of a CT based strategy that I advocated three years ago, but that was then.  This is now.  The time has probaby passed.

-In Iraq, we created a government that rejected any real strategic relationship with us and now conspires with Iran to halp Iran evade the sanctions regime.  But, we still say we love them.

- In Tunisia, the Islamist element in the new government is seeking to erase French culture in the country.  We look fondly upon them.

- In Yemen we directly assist the new Yemeni government in seeking the annhilation of the small Sunni Wahhabi insurgent movement.  In so doing we align ourselves with the Sunni majority of the former PDRY against the Fiver Shia population of the North who are thought to be somehow related to Iran.  They are not.

- Iran.  Well, I won't even try to deal with that here.  We await Israel's initiative.

- Saudi Arabia.  We await their desires as well.

- Syria.  We support a Sunni Wahhabi led, financed and armed insurgency against a government that has traditionally been hostile to Islamist groups.

What's the connecting thread here?

Don't embarrass yourself by saying oil and Israel.

"It is a tale told by an ifdiot."  pl

Green on Blue Attacks in Afghanistan

"An Afghan civilian employee shot three soldiers, all from the US, at a base in Helmand province on Friday evening.

Earlier on the same day, also in Helmand, an Afghan police officer shot three US marines after inviting them to dinner at a checkpoint. The suspected killers in both attacks were detained, the US military says.

The killing of two British soldiers in Helmand was also announced on Friday, bringing to eight the number of coalition soldiers killed in Helmand in 48 hours. There is mounting concern over attacks on Nato troops by their Afghan allies.

Members of the Afghan security forces have killed 34 international coalition soldiers this year, in 26 incidents, US military spokeswoman Maj Lori Hodge told the BBC. "  BBC

----------------------------

Is the Taliban strategy to kill as many NATO people as possible in the belief that this will eventually wear down NATO's will to continue? That appears to be the case.  If it becomes true that NATO personnel cannot trust the people they are training and advising, then that is probably an effective method.  pl 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/afghanistan/story/2012-08-10/afghanistan-attack/56943458/1

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g5Gzdyj23xG8B4pwYdu7MHuzJbkQ?docId=CNG.0a4e52814bdbb17f662d0a35c58373db.7c1

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19221821 

The Afghan military is reverting to type

 

"After U.S. soldiers left Combat Outpost Conlon in February — packing up weapons, generators and portable toilets — their Afghan successors rushed to the American barracks and command center, eager to inspect their inheritance. The Afghans renamed Conlon in Dari and scrawled Koran verses on the walls. The base was now theirs, and they were proud." Washpost

-----------------------------

An old, old story.  If we could have stayed 200 years or maybe even 50 there might have been some significant change in the military.  That was never possible.  Any fool should have seen that was not possible politically.

They can't maintain what we left tham?  What a surprise!  We used contracters?  Yes, but a few decades ago we soldiers used to do much of what contracters do now.  We had no trouble doing that.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/months-after-americans-leave-an-afghan-base-in-disrepair/2012/08/02/gJQApMfzSX_story.html

 

De Borchgrave on Pakistan

"A U.S. grovel is what Pakistan said would reopen Afghan supply routes. But  while the United States conceded bombing coordinates were misread by U.S.  fighter bombers and gunships, the Pakistani military supplied erroneous  information on the location of Taliban forces.

Finally, the United States uttered a word short of the apology demanded --  "sorry" -- and the Pakistanis, in a phony burst of wounded pride salved, allowed  truck convoys to inch forward as they were inspected for prohibited lethal  weaponry and to collect a toll of $300-$500 depending on the size of the  vehicle.

Some of the three out of four Pakistanis who say the United States is the enemy of Islam and consider reconciliation tantamount to treason, moved forward slowly in what they called "a long march" -- actually two days -- by truck, bus, car and bicycle -- from Lahore to the front of Parliament House in Islamabad." 

-------------------------------------------------

De Borchgrave is a clear thinker.  Age and experience DO count in learning to think.  He must be nearly 90 now.  His grandfather Charles Townshend commanded a Sikh Pioneer battalion at the siege of the British Indian Army garrison at Chitral in the Himalayas in the 1890s and later as a lmajor general of the Indian Army surrendered to the Turks at Kut in the first world war.  They have been around the "track" a few times in the sub-continent in his family.

When he tells you something about Pakistan, you should listen carefully.  pl

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Analysis/de-Borchgrave/2012/07/13/Commentary-Afghanistan-as-an-ally/UPI-90331342177017/#ixzz20bNbloXf 

 

"Afghanistan declared a major US non-NATO ally"

America "loved" Iraq.  Therefore Iraq must have "loved" America.  No?  They threw us out?  How could that be?  The "bloody" ungrateful wogs!"  America really "loves" Afghanistan!  These "wogs" will love us and treasure our love.

How absurd.  How truly absurd in both cases.  The Iraqis showed us the door.  The Afghans (the Pushtuns, Tajiks, Hazara, Turkmen, etc.) will do the same in a bit.

We are a nuisance.  We insist that they should behave as the "strawmen" of our collective dream should behave.

The "hospital story below is representative of the impossibility of making a "silk purse out of a sow's ear" in places like Afghanistan (unless you want to rule the place for a hundred years).  The US built this magnificent facility for the Afghan military of our dreams.  We paid for it, supplied it, trained staff, advised the hospital.  In the end the Afghans running the hospital are acting like Afghans.  They are charging military wounded and sick for treatment and food and letting them rot in their filthy beds.  Why?  From the Afghan point of view, why not?  These patients are rarely kin or tribal brothers.  This is a chance to make money!  Once again - Afghanistan is not a nation-state.  It is merely a state.

These American generals covered this up for political reasons?  Courts-martial all around should be the response.  Question: what is the difference betwee a present day US Army general and a Walmart manager or a Wall Street type?  Answer:  ten or twelve rows of medal ribbons for meaningless awards.   People ask what Jesus would do in particular situations.  I ask what "Cump" Sherman would do?  pl

http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/afghanistan-declared-a-major-us-non-nato-ally-1.3824784

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/06/allegations-american-generals-delayed-kabul-hospital-abuse-probe/

 

 

Trucks roll through the passes.

"The first trucks carrying NATO supplies crossed from Pakistan to Afghanistan at the Chaman border crossing on Thursday, after a seven-month blockade of the ground routes (NYT, AP, CNN, AFP, Reuters, BBC). Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar agreed to reopen the supply lines after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called her on Tuesday, and said she was "sorry for the losses suffered by the Pakistani military""  Foreign Policy

----------------------------------------------

I suppose the reason we did not make this meaningless statement long ago was that Jack Keane was advising generals Mattis and Allen as to the appropriate response.  His attitude toward Pakisttan was made clear in the post just below.  Pakistan is really as much an adversary in Afghanistan as an ally, but it is nevertheless true that we need the supply routes just now being re-opened. Without them the force in Afghanistan is relying on a "crazy quilt" of routes through the former Soviet Union that are costing us even more than the routes through Pakistan.  With withdrawal about to begin, the movement of heavy equipment to the port of Karachi over Pakistan's roads will be even more critical.

I am curious as to what else the Pakistanis received in return for their acceptance of this delayed apology.  How much trhey are now charging us in fees for the passage of our cargo.  Have the fees gone up?  pl

 

http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/07/05/first_nato_trucks_cross_pakistani_border

Jack Keane tells all.

"We have got two sanctuaries, Afghan sanctuaries in Pakistan that Pakistan military leaders provide information on NATO and U.S. operations inside Afghanistan.

They provide training, and they provide resources. I mean, that's outrageous. And if that isn't enough, there are two fertilizer factories ostensibly which actually produce ammonium nitrate, which is the basic ingredient in 85 percent of all of the IEDs that maim and kill our troops.

And, finally, there are bomb factories that we know where they are, have pictures of them in Balochistan and also in Sharman, Pakistan..."  General (Ret.) Jack Keane

----------------------------

Keane is a former Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army who in retirement has become a counselor to the neocon movement.

As he mentions in the Newshour interview cited here, he has been a contract adviser to various Afghanistan commanders and was a principal architect of the strategy of reinforcement in Iraq that is often called "the surge."  Actual progress in Iraq was brought about by the Sunni "awakening" but Keane and Petraeus have been keen to take credit.

This man has lots of access to US classified information.  In this interview he reveal a lot of it, taking upon himself the right to de-classify information because he wants to win an argument.  This information is directly involved in current and future operatons.

Various former CIA men, NSA men, etc. have been persecuted for unauthorised disclosures.  What about this guy?  pl 

 

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/pakistan_07-03.html

"Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?" CSIS

"An examination of progress in each of these areas concludes that the Afghan government, the US and its allies, and aid donors have not made enough collective progress to ensure even a modest level of success in Transition by the end of 2014. If the Afghan government, the US and its allies, and aid donors are to succeed, major improvements must take place in the depth and quality of planning and analysis, as well as in the transparency, credibility, and integrity of reporting within the US government, allied governments, ISAF, and international institutions."  CSIS

----------------------------------

When are we going to wise up?  pl

 

http://csis.org/publication/afghanistan-2012-2014-successful-transition-possible

Perspective on the Threat of Terrorism by Dr. Christopher Bolan

Micah Zenko at the Council on Foreign Relations observes that based on the most recent USG official statistics on global terrorism for 2011, "the number of U.S. citizens who died in terrorist attacks [is comparable to those] crushed to death by their televisions or furniture each year."  So the inert television and chairs sitting around your house are every bit as threatening to your physical safety as the sum total of all terrorist organizations actively operating world-wide.

In confronting this objectively miniscule but emotionally-compelling threat, the USG has undertaken the most extensive reorganization and expansion of its national security apparatus since WWII; conducted massive military interventions and enormous nation-building efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq at tremendous costs in American blood and treasure; and authorized ever-more intensive assassination campaigns in Pakistan and Yemen that include American citizens as 'legitimate' targets.

The 'global war on terrorism' was a flawed strategic framework from its inception appealing primarily to the appreciable fear of the American public in the wake of the horrific attacks of 9-11 and eschewing an objective assessment of the scale and nature of the threat.  Terrorism as a tactic of the weak will always be with us.  It will never be eliminated.  This report demonstrates that this threat has clearly been reduced to a manageable level.  The Al-Qa'ida organization that attacked us on 9-11 is a shadow of what it was.  Targeted attacks on its leadership and support networks wherever they operate can most effectively and efficiently be facilitated by close cooperation with local law enforcement, intelligence, and as needed, special operations forces.

In these times of fiscal constraints and 'tough choices', U.S. citizens and taxpayers should demand a reality-based discussion of the military, security, and intelligence forces needed to defend critical American national interests here and abroad.  Our political and military leaders should lead this rational debate.  Nevertheless, many politicians, defense lobbyists, and those working in the national security and foreign policymaking apparatus (both government and civilian) will be tempted to employ hyperbolic exaggeration of the threats confronting us as a justification for continued U.S. interventions across the globe.  The rise of China as a conventional military and economic competitor and the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons are prime candidates to replace terrorism as the next great  security 'threat' demanding exorbitant expenditures of America's treasure and resources.  Let's at least insist on a rational and fact-based debate over these issues.

The author is a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Army War College.  The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Army.

General Allen to head EUCOM

"Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan, is expected to leave his post early next year and take over the U.S. European Command, officials said.

Allen has spent much of his tumultuous year in Afghanistan helping to negotiate a long-term security agreement with the Afghan government and overseeing the initial drawdown of U.S. forces from the country."  Washpost

----------------------------

General Allen is a personal friend of BHO.  He has had the job of beginning the "shutdown" of the US/NATO intervention in Afghanistan.  He is accomplishing that goal.  Afghanistan is useless as a "strategic" partner of the US.   The country remains what it has been since its creation by Britain and Russia as a buffer state between their empires.  It was and continues to be more of a geographical expression than anything else.  The importation of the falsely labelled COIN "success" from Iraq to  Afghanistan as technique proved to be a theoretically clever think tank generated flop.  A COIN campaign in Afghanistan was always going to be too long, too expensive and too bloody.  BHO belatedly sees that he was "rolled" by Petraeus et al in the great Afghanistan debates several years back.  Allen will leave so that he is not "stained" by the increasing obviousness of failure.

The next commander at the "roof of the world" will have the job of continuing to kill hard core terrorists jihadis while gradually distancing the US from whatever government there is.

Rodriguez was one of the group of West Pointers who "conspired" to get rid of McKiernan and replace him as apostles of COIN.  I doubt that Rodriguez will be the next "victim"  to sit in McKiernan's chair.  IMO the next commander in Afghanistan will be a CT flag officer like one of the US Navy SEAL derived admirals.  Either that will happen or some two or three star Army general will be the choice.

BTW, the president/commander in chief recently put his arm around his friend Allen in public after a meeting at the WH.  That should never happen.   In 1942, FDR once called Marshall, "George" when they were alone in the Oval Office.  Marshall asked him not to do that again.  He said that such intimacy was inappropriate to the command relationship.  He was correct.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/gen-allen-to-leave-afghanistan-post/2012/05/14/gIQAR6DpPU_story.html

Perception and Reality in Afghanistan (and the US)

"Every day seems to widen the gap between the goals the United States is seeking to achieve in Afghanistan and its ability to achieve them. Even apparent progress, like the Strategic Framework Agreement between the United States and Afghanistan, seems more a warning on the inability to define specific goals, milestones, and resources—coupled with growing restraints on U.S. military action—than an accomplishment."  Cordesman - CSIS

http://csis.org/publication/time-focus-afghan-good-enough

------------------------------

The "Strategic Framework" is clever.  It is not a treaty.  It has no details.  It promises nothing but an "enduring partnership."  Ever heard of the "Rio Treaty?"  No?  It is document signed just after World War 2 that "ties together" the countries of the western hemisphere in a "strategic" relationship that requires nothing but consultation.  When convenient it provides a basis for action.  When it is not convenient...  Perfidy is a technique of statecraft.

 

"Nothing is too good for the troops...

... and that is what they will get.  Old Army Saying

BHO says that he and Michele, love their soldiers and will always be there for them and their families, always.  Are we looking at a future attempt to change the constitution?  Politicians promise soldiers the world in wartime, but later...

Today BHO spoke to a carefully staged military audience from a hangar at Bagram air base.  It was a scene remarkably like "carriergate" in the time of the Emperor George II.  A very unrepresentative group formed a background behind BHO.  It was chock full of African-Americans, women, other ethnic minorities and other groups near and dear to the Democratic base.  The force, especially the combat  force in Afghanistan is overwhelmingly recruited from small town white America.  What a cheap political trick!

After BHO finished, Christopher Matthews, Jim Moran and Jim Vanderhei of "Politico" commented on MSNBC.  Matthews, a man so in love with BHO that he swoons at the thought of him went on and on about the "Commander in Chief" this and the "Commander in Chief that.  Moran was equally adoring.  Neither one of these bloviators ever served a day in the armed forces and neither did the "Commander in Chief."  Romney and Cheny should be added of course to the list of "chickenhawks."  At least BHO is not a draft evader.  Vanderhei was so foolish as to suggest that this "carnie show" might not be well received by the US public.  He was suitably chastised by the "faithful."

Earlier today, Colonel (Ret.) Jack Jacobs said that if the US stays in Afghanistan after 2014, our forces will inevitably continue to be involved in combat operations.  We will have to provide staff planning, materiel, target intelligence, airlift etc.  This will be true even if we say we are no longer in the direct combat role there and even if we adopt the CT strategy that we should have adopted a couple of years ago.  The time for that has passed.  The American people will not longer accept it.

The child-scholars of Washington thinktankery are still waxing optimistic on shows like the Newshour, but they should.  they are going to "go down" with the shrinking overseas missions and budget of the armed forces.  They are going to go down just like John Nagl did. 

More tomorrow on  BHO's speech tonight as a re-enactor of Marcus Aurelius.  It will be broadcast from the legions' camps along "the Rhine" to the Senate and People of the USA.  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Moran

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Matthews

 

 

"How Osama bin Laden is winning, even in death" Ignatius

"What we’re seeing now in Egypt is something that might be called electoral bin Ladenism. Take the group Gamaa Islamiya, which under its spiritual leader, Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman, made the first unsuccessful attempt to destroy the World Trade Center in 1993. Today, the organization has formed a Salafist political party with the benign name Building and Development Party. This organization, which like al-Qaeda traces its roots to the Islamist theorist Sayyid Qutb, has 13 seats in the new Egyptian parliament.

Syria will be a test of whether this post-bin Laden Islamist movement can continue to reject violence or will instead be radicalized by the jihadist magnet that is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The successor to bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has tried to use the anti-Assad battle to rehabilitate the al-Qaeda brand — even though it’s another fight that embodies the Muslim-on-Muslim violence that bin Laden came to abhor."  Ignatius

*******************************

"... a year of mostly nonviolent democratic revolution. But it has brought to power some Salafist and Muslim Brotherhood groups that share common theological roots with bin Laden. And the al-Qaeda goal of driving the “apostate,” pro-American President Hosni Mubarak from power has been achieved."  Ignatius

---------------------------------------

Truer words were never..., etc.  Islamic revivalism (especially in Sunni Islam) is a cyclical phenomenon.  Islam sees itself as a universal truth that should become a way of life for all.  All else is tactics.

 

Colonel Killibrew on MI soldiers

Two minutes into this interview on the Newshour Colonel (Ret.) Killibrew of CNAS chooses to denigrate what he calls "intelligence soldiers" as opposed to "direct combat soldiers" (sic) in the matter of the Afghan photos of troops and Afghan police palying with the remains of Taliban fighters who accidentally blew themselves up while installing roadside bombs.  Bomb installers do this with some frequency.  The IRA were particularly prone to this accident.  I remember one fellow who did himself in while mixing fertiliser and other "goodies" with a steel shovel on a concrete garage floor.  Special Branch and MI-5 had a good chuckle over that.

Killibrew's insult is reminiscent of all the snide remarks I have heard in the US Army over the last half century about intelligence soldiers.  In memory of my old comrades I must say that I have seen intelligence soldiers fight as hard as any infantry and I have never known them to murder civilians in their beds.

From what I can learn, that whole brigade (4/82 Div.) behaved poorly during that deployment.  The were unhappy to have been ordered into the "mentoring" mode and that showed in their performance.  pl

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/jan-june12/afghanistan2_04-18.html

When you do things like this...

"The soldier who provided The Times with a series of 18 photos of soldiers posing with corpses did so on condition of anonymity. He served in Afghanistan with the 82nd Airborne's 4th Brigade Combat Team from Ft. Bragg, N.C. He said the photos point to a breakdown in leadership and discipline that he believed compromised the safety of the troops.

He expressed the hope that publication would help ensure that alleged security shortcomings at two U.S. bases in Afghanistan in 2010 were not repeated. The brigade, under new command but with some of the same paratroopers who served in 2010, began another tour in Afghanistan in February.

U.S. military officials asked The Times not to publish any of the pictures.

Capt. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said the conduct depicted "most certainly does not represent the character and the professionalism of the great majority of our troops in Afghanistan.... Nevertheless, this imagery — more than two years old — now has the potential to indict them all in the minds of local Afghans, inciting violence and perhaps causing needless casualties.""  LA Times

---------------------------------

When you do things like this... you've been at war too long with the same poor suffering bastards.

The soldier who released these two year old pictures is correct.  This level of disrespect to the enemy's dead is unacceptable and should be unacceptable in the "ancient and honorable profession of arms" as my father used to call it.  He was at least partly serious.

Time to go.  COIN is dead.  Time to go.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-afghan-photos-20120418,0,5032601.story

Intelligence "failure" in Afghanistan

This is a perennial story.  I have seen it all my life.  It is easily possible to analyze fragments of information to produce a general picture of what will occur.  It is much harder to acquire specifics with regard  to particular future enemy activities.  To do that requires highly capable SIGINT, HUMINT, etc.

A COIN campaign like the one in Afghanistan is one of the hardest "arenas" in which to forecast particular future enemy operations.  These forces have little equipment, little communications equipment and thus present a small "target" for information collection. 

HUMINT penetrations of the enemy are the answer.  In a civil war like the one in Afghanistan this should be quite possible if skill and imagination are present.

Evidently they are not.  pl

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/16/karzai-intelligence-failure/?iid=article_sidebar

Sunday News - 8 April, 2012

Afghanistan -  "a newly formed national force — the Afghan Special Operations Unit — will have the authority to search houses and private compounds and arrest suspected insurgents, Afghanistan’s Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak said Sunday. U.S. forces will provide support “only as required or requested,” according to the agreement, which was signed by Wardak and General John R. Allen, the commander of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan."  Washpost

----------------------------

Wardak (and his son) are reputed to be at the heart of Karzai government money corruption in Afghanistan.  They also maintain relations with the "opposition" that are good enough to clear the way for logistics convoys.   Surely General Allen knows that these operations will leak like a sieve when it is convenient to Wardak and company.  Another coffin nail for the US presence in Afghanistan.  pl

----------------------------

Egypt - Umar Suleiman knows he has little chance of becoming president of the degenerating mass that is post Mubarak Egypt.  Umar Suleiman is not on trial.  He was questioned and released without injury to his rights as a citizen.  Why?  He was head of the GID, the Egyptian EXTERNAL intelligence service, not the INTERNAL service.  He did not work for the Ministry of the Interior (Police Ministry)  Both of those are on trial or awaiting trial.  It was not US's job to oppress Egyptians.  It was theirs'.  He is known to be uninterested in money as a basis for existence on the Mubarak or Wall Street models.  He is a devout Muslim without taint of Islamist zealotry.  He likes the West, and the US?  Excuse me if I do not apologize on his behalf.  Israel?  Well, it was his duty.   Why has he done this foolish thing in deciding to run?  He is 75 years old.  If we were still in touch I would have advised him not to do this...  Amre Moussa will probably win.  pl

---------------------------

Yemen - Last year I tried to make the point on a number of occasions that the union of North and South Yemen is unstable and may not last.  That seems even clearer now.  The former North Yemen country (YAR) continues to be dominated by confederations of Zeidi Shia (Fivers) tribesmen.  These are highly self aware and heavily armed forces among which many have served in the Armed forces and were trained by the US, the UK, France and the USSR.  The Zeidi Shia are nothing like the Twelvers in Iraq and Iran but a connection is relentlessly sought by the ignorant.  The former South Yemen (PDRY) is overwhelmingly Sunni Arab, organized into largely de-racinated city swellers and sedentary villagers in the far flung wadis of the south.  The PDRY was a Marxist-Leninist state.  That set of ideas was taught in state schools for decades.  Ali Abdullah Saleh was no saint but he was also no Marxist.   Following his departure he was replaced with a "Sunni" general from the greater Aden area.  That man knows that to maintain power he must rid himself of the Zeidi tribesmen that fill the armed forces and security services.  Maliki understands the same thing in Iraq,  His situation is merely the mirror image.  The attempted purge of Zeidi officers that led to the airport seizure is the first act in this drama not the last.  AQ in Yemen watches on the sideline.  It knows that it would have far more running room in an independant South Yemen than it ever will have in the Zeidi country.  pl

-----------------------------------------

Israel - Ehud Bark was on Zakariya's GPS show today.  I knew him when he used to say that Israel could do anything with its bayonets but "sit on them."  I liked him better then even if he was closely linked to the Pollard Affair.  He told Zakariya today that  1-MAD is not possible with Iran and therefore containment is not possible, 2- He predicted that Iran will build ICBMs for its as yet non-existent weapons and therefore Israel is trying to save the world from its own stupidity, 3- He does not believe that sanctions will dissuade to Iranians from their putative nuclear weapons program.  IMO his vision of the true effect of the present sanctions is the reduction of Iran to a peasant and therefore harmless state.  He reiterated that there is a limit to Israel's patience.  IMO opinion this discourse makes the war or peace issue a question of American ability to deter Israel.

-----------------------------------------

US Intelligence - In what is clearly a government press release, the US published today an exposition of the quality of its information regarding Iranian programs.  Two staff journalists at the Washington Post wrote this up from rather complete interviews granted by what are described variously as former senior intelligence officials.  Let us not be coy.  If these were anything but recent former directors of the CIA the men in question would be headed for indictments.    The story reeks of of the CIA is its role as propagandist.  The subtle denigration of the rest of the IC is familiar.  Is this story a bad thing?  No! It is good!  The target audiences are; Israel, Iran and the Zionist 5th Column in the US Congress and media.  The message is clear.  The US will know well in advance if Iran decides to build weapons.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/united-states-and-afghanistan-sign-deal-on-night-raids/2012/04/08/gIQA3Sf13S_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/9193409/Hosni-Mubaraks-former-intelligence-chief-Omar-Suleiman-to-run-for-Egypt-presidency.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/08/yemen-airport-idUSL6E8F80LP20120408

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-sees-intelligence-surge-as-boost-to-confidence/2012/04/07/gIQAlCha2S_story.html?hpid=z1

Unintended Consequences

"A growing number of Afghan children are being coerced into a life of sexual abuse. The practice of wealthy or prominent Afghans exploiting underage boys as sexual partners who are often dressed up as women to dance at gatherings is on the rise in post-Taliban Afghanistan, according to Afghan human rights researchers, Western officials and men who participate in the abuse.

“Like it or not, there was better rule of law under the Taliban,” said Dee Brillenburg Wurth, a child-protection expert at the U.N. mission in Afghanistan, who has sought to persuade the government to address the problem. “They saw it as a sin, and they stopped a lot of it.”

Over the past decade, the phenomenon has flourished in Pashtun areas in the south, in several northern provinces and even in the capital, according to Afghans who engage in the practice or have studied it. Although issues such as women’s rights and moral crimes have attracted a flood of donor aid and activism in recent years, bacha bazi remains poorly understood."  Washpost

-----------------------------------

It would be uninformed and naive to think that this practise has not been common in Afghanistan in the past. 

Nevertheless, the comment in the article,  “They saw it as a sin, and they stopped a lot of it.” should be taken seriously.  Yes, the Taliban are medievalist obstacles to the well being of many, many Afghans but they were not all bad.  You may want to remember that they cooperated with the USG in opium crop suppression and many of my contacts tell me that they offered to hand over Bin Laden's crew before we inviaded Afghanistan.

We should always try to remember that interfering in some other people's culture inevitably has unintended consequences.  This is one of them.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/afganistans-dancing-boys-are-invisible-victims/2012/04/04/gIQAyreSwS_story.html?hpid=z1

Another Reason Why We Will Never Win in Afghanistan - Foresman

One aspect of counterinsurgency doctrine which is not often talked about is trust.

In the United States Army seminal doctrinal manual FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency (December 2006) in paragraph 5.84, establishing trust is the key to successful combined action.

Combined action unit members must develop and build positive relationships with their associated HN security forces and with the town leadership. By living among the people, combined action units serve an important purpose. They demonstrate the commitment and competence of counterinsurgents while sharing experiences and relationships with local people. These working relationships build trust and enhance the HN government’s legitimacy. To build trust further, U.S. members should ask HN security forces for training on local customs, key terrain, possible insurgent hideouts, and relevant cultural dynamics. HN forces should also be asked to describe recent local events.[1]

The whole notion of fighting “wars amongst the people”[2] requires that those conducting counterinsurgency operations establish trust with the people they seek to protect and whose hearts and minds they wish to win.  Trust that cannot be won overnight, which cannot be bequeathed to the individual or the unit that follows, trust which allows those we seek to protect to identify with us as humans.

The picture at the beginning, was taken from Army Knowledge On Line.  It shows a soldier, inside a building providing humanitarian assistance items to an Afghan woman.  Good you say that what we should be doing.  Look closely at the picture what do you see.  You see a man in full battle kit.  In fact in many respect he reminds me a Stormtrooper[3] from Star Wars (picture on the below).[4]

It is my observation that the United States military has become so fixated on force protection and uniformity of appearance they have lost sight that the appearance of a man or women interacting with indigenous locals in full battle rattle does not convey a message of trust.  We are more likely seen through the eyes of the locals at the Stormtrooper and not the benevolent benefactor that we picture ourselves as being.

This is not to say we should not be concerned about force protection, and given the number of shootings of Americans in recent months by members of the Afghanistan military and police, we must remain vigilant.  However in situations where we control the environment and how the locals interact with our forces it would seem that by putting a human face on our interaction it would go a little ways towards establishing trust.  Ditch the helmet, ditch the ballistic eye wear, ditch the ballistic armor vest, keep your weapon and kit close at hand, and present a human face.

Foresman

---

[1] FM 3-34, Counterinsurgency, December 2006 available at http://armypubs.army.mil/doctrine/active_fm.html. 

[2] For a full discussion of what is meant by the term “wars amongst the people” see The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World by General Sir Rupert Smith KCB (Knight Commander of the Bath), DSO & Bar (Distinguish Service Order with bar equivalent to our Oak Leaf), OBE (Order of the British Empire), QGM (Queens Gallantry Medal). 

[3] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stormtrooper_(Star_Wars). 

[4] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Wars. 

 

"Why Karzai is fed up..." by Joshua Partlow

"For much of his second term, Karzai has been consistent in his belief that American troops are creating more problems than solutions in the war against the Taliban. The latest outrages — the viral video that apparently depicts Marines desecrating corpses, the burning of Korans by U.S. service members, the civilian casualties in Kandahar province — have reinforced his argument that the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy is counterproductive. His demand that NATO forces stay out of Afghan villages and withdraw onto large bases follows a litany of earlier orders: the cessation of NATO airstrikes, Special Operations night raids and home searches; the abolishment of private security companies, NATO’s provincial reconstruction teams and American-run prisons."  Partlow

------------------------------------------------

When Karzai says that the COIN strategy that BHO adopted is counterproductive, he is correct.  The US is driving itself out of Afghanistan.  It is doing that by trying to replace the native cultures of Afghans with a foreign concoction that is imagined by the COINistas to be "modern" and representative of inevitable social evolutionon the part of the Afghans.  There is a "small" problem with this concept.  Most Afghans do not accept the idea,  Look at the pictures of Afghans burning the cross in Kandahar.  Do you think this is an empty gesture? No.  They are rejecting the West in the most visible way that they can manage.

Karzai knows that the Afghan peoples can not be "transformed" in the way that the COIN freaks think they can be.  He seeks a middle way that will allow the US to continue CT operations in that country.

Perhaps that is still possible.  Perhaps.  We have done so much damage to that possibility that I doubt it can still be done.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-karzai-is-fed-up-with-the-us-mission-in-afghanistan/2012/03/16/gIQAh5A3GS_story.html?hpid=z3

Who Is Going to Be Blamed! - by Foresman

There is going to be much finger pointing about whom to blame for losing Afghanistan.

The Republicans will point to the Democrats and say that because they were weak on defense, and that they were not sufficiently committed, that the Democrats lost Afghanistan.

The Democrats will point to the Republicans, and with all the sincerity they can muster, will say if you had not led us to a useless war in Iraq then we would have won in Afghanistan; it was your Republican President who made it the forgotten war.

Our Allies will point to our nation and say that it was you who got us to join you in this endeavor, it was you, the arrogant United States who led us down the primrose path; it was you America, the evil superpower, who lost Afghanistan.

The American military will say that we were stabbed in the back.  It was the weak kneed politicians who sold us down the river.  If we had just stayed a little longer, if we had just had some gee whiz weapons, if we had more money, more soldiers, more of everything we would have won.  It was the socialists and the liberals, and the non-believing secular humanists that sold us down the river and caused us to lose Afghanistan.

The American people will little notice that we lost, for they were never at war.  They went to the mall.  They played their little league games.  They put on false patriotism when they thanked a soldier, thankful it was he or she and not their precious son or daughter who went to Afghanistan.

There will be a group of Americans who do not blame, who grieve for their loved ones who now lie in eternal rest with their comrades, guarded by white marble Crosses, Stars of David, and the Islamic Crescent.

Another group of Americans, men and women who went forward voluntarily to do their nation’s bidding and whose bodies and minds are broken by the war in a far away and strange lands who know, like all the veterans of that conflict that it was not the dead, or the broken, or those who went to a far away land who lost Afghanistan.  It was all those who seek to blame someone else rather than looking in the mirror, who lost Afghanistan.

And in Afghanistan they will rejoice that they expelled the infidel Americans, as they expelled the infidel Russians and British and any other foreigner who dared invade their country and dared to try to bring them into the current century.  The Afghnas will go back to their warrior ways, to their tribes, to their revenge killings, to the brutality of a country mired in ways and mores at odds with our western concepts of modernity.

COL (R) Henry “Hank” Foresman, Jr. retired from the United States Army after thirty-three years of service.  He is now employed as a Department of the Army Civilian, the views express are his and do not reflect the views of the Department of Defense or the Department of the Army.

-------------------------------------

The photograph is of George C. Marshall in China.  He was sent there by Truman to seek a peace.  Marshall was blamed by McCarthy for Mao's victory.  pl

 

SSGT Bales' fate

"Staff Sgt. Robert Bales, 1st platoon sergeant, Blackhorse Company (Company B), 2nd Battalion, 3rd Infantry Regiment, 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, in 2011."  This doesn't mean much to civilians but for the soldiers here it tells us who he is.  He is a line infantry NCO who had served in a lot of combat and had done moderately well.  I would have expected that with his record he would be a Sergeant First Class (E-7) by now, but no matter.

He was an infantry platoon sergeant with shared responsibility (with a lieutenant) for 43 "grunts" or however many there are now in a rifle platoon.   For them he was father, teacher and patron saint.  The lieutenant platoon leader is often too young and green to carry all that weight alone.   Bales enlisted just after 9/11.  Maybe it is not such a good idea to enlist people to fight for a cause rather than each other or "the regiment."  Disillusionment comes eventually to those who have illusions about causes.

His civilian lawyer (Brown) says that he had lost a man recently to a disabling wound.  Maybe that was "the straw that broke the camel's back."

The media are already beginning to create the image of a monster in him.  It will be interesting to see if they succeed.

IMO it is unlikely that this man will be court-martialed.  The likely course of events is that an Army psychiatric board will judge him to have been insane at the time of the massacre and probably still unfit to stand trial.  If that does not happen and he is tried on a capital charge, then he would probably be acquitted by the jury on the same basis.  Because he is an enlisted soldier rather than an officer, there will be enlisted men in the jury as well as officers.  That is the law.  In a trial the defense will argue that this man was driven mad in and by the service of the United States. 

Whether there is a trial or not he will spend a long time in a mental hospital.

The Afghans will be angry?  They would be angry no matter what the US does in this case.

Time to leave.  pl

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/sgt-robert-bales-charged-murder-16-afghan-civilians/story?id=15942005

National Journal Blog - 14 March 2012

Col. W. Patrick Lang Responds to How Should the U.S. Military Respond to the Afghanistan Killings??.

pl

 

National Journal Blog - 14 March 2012

Col. W. Patrick Lang Responds to How Should the U.S. Military Respond to the Afghanistan Killings??.

pl

Interesting Media (and other) Drivel and Folly

Today McCaffery turned away from endorsement of COIN without end.  He said that it was time to consider a cost/benefit  analysis of what we are doing.  That means that his pals in the generals' club are making a similar assessmen.  They don't get to determine national policy but at least they will probably stop urging a continuation.

Colonel Jack Jacobs expresses similar but more sensible things on MSNBC.

---------------------------------

The command in Afghanistan tried today to make up for murder of children and women by a US infantry staff sergeant (probably a rifle squad leader?) by sending Green Berets (US Army Special Forces) into the violated villages to try to make peace with the people.  TTG and my other SF brothers here will see the awfulness of that.  The GBs are the culturally sensitve linguist commandos who have been making progress in eastern Afghanistan in building village defense forces from the villagers as well as village police.  The big army dislikes these men, but they always are called when somethig really hard has to be done.  Major Gant was the prophet of that kind of thing in Afghanistan and many here mocked the idea,  Why does the big army dislike the GBs?  Why does the salami fear the slicer?

------------------------------

In Washington and Kabul the staff boot-lickers and spokesmen all rushed to explain that this wuld have no long-term effect.  Good luck on that.  The asses at the WH said the same thing.  McCain implied that this "incident" will have no lasting effect.  This is more stupidity.

Several years ago, I said in a debate (IQ2) that COIN would not work in Afghanistan because the human, time and financial resources would not be available to do the job.  To do COIN like the GBs can do it you mist become a part time member of that community and culture.  The infantry can't do that. Their function is to kill and destroy enemy forces.  They don't even like the idea.  Combatting enemy forces is a valuable function in the right circumstances but not in COIN except to engage enemy guerrillas.  Larry Derita (one of Rumsfeld's pretty boys) told me once that they wanted to make the whole Army like the GBs.  I laughed and explained that these men really are SPECIAL and that not many are like them or can be made to be like them.  It went right past him.

Steve Clemons and I were right in that debate in NY City.  Do we get a bonus?

-----------------------------

The media srill does not grasp the difference betwee post,camp, station and unit.  "This sergeant is from Joint Base" blah! blah!.  LISTEN!!  The post you are at is your address.  It is not your identity.  Your unit is your identity.  Don't ask where the unit is based in the States, Germany, Korea, etc.  These troops are not the NG.  They are not home town folks in the local community.  Ask what unit they belong to.  Ask who is in the chain of command.  A unit has a soul.  It has a culture.  Some are good. Some are terrible.  This unit is not Tacoma.  pl

 

Kandahar

There is nothing grand or significant in this crime, just the usual mixture of human frailty, poor leadership, and combat fatigue.  Oh, yes, let us not forget COIN, one of the dumbest ideas ever to infest the Washington think tankery.  Run the COINISTAS out of town.  First, take their money away from them.

BHO should "read the tea leaves' and dump the Afghanistan war and the Afghans before it destroys him. When we are gone the Afghans, if there is such a people, will be exactly the same as when we arrived. Ask the ghosts of Major Cavagnari and Lord Roberts.  pl 

Murder in Kandahar

Appalling.  What unit is in that area NOW?  Investigation should be followed by appropriate legal action.  pl 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/03/11/us-offers-condolences-as-us-service-member-investigated-for-alleged-killing/