The civil war in Syria has a number of possible outcomes:
- The present Baath Alawi/Sunni secular goverment survives. If that happens there will be widespread ethno-religious cleansing seeking to eliminate the chance of a renewal of a Saudi backed sectarian insurgency. IMO, no outside power would intervene to prevent this cleansing.
- The civil war persists indefinitely. Iran and Russia continue to support the Syrian gov. Syria is torn to pieces, possible irreperably. Western powers and Saudis continue to support rebels. Lebanon my or may not be drawn into this continuing situation. The Lebanese do not relish such a possibility.
- Syrian government falls. A Sunni salafi government is installed with Saudi support and initial American support which turns to eventual embarassed silence as installation of a sharia law state occurs. This new state becomes a haven for jihadi terrorists. Massive repression of non-Sunnis occurs. The Syrian salafi government seeks to "absorb" Lebanon.
Israel is seriously threatened by either of the outcmes in which the present government does not survive.
Chemical weapons are not a serious factor in any of these scenarios. pl