Sic Semper Tyrannis

Delusions of Grandeur or Overcompensation?

Adam L. Silverman, PhD*

Last night NY's Mayor Bloomberg, speaking at MIT in an attempt to establish NY City as the next tech hub/corridor, presented a very unique view of New York's place in the world.  As part of his address he announced that “I have my own army in the NYPD, which is the seventh biggest army in the world. I have my own State Department, much to Foggy Bottom’s annoyance. We have the United Nations in New York, and so we have an entree into the diplomatic world that Washington does not have,”.  Makes one wonder exactly who the good mayor sees when he looks in the mirror every morning.  Worse it shows the casual and cavalier nature of how we have allowed our police departments and law enforcement to become militarized.

*Adam L. Silverman is the Culture and Foreign Language Advisor at the US Army War College.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Army War College and/or the US Army.

Should we get "out of Dodge?"

"Pat, 

As always, I greatly enjoy your blog and greatly appreciate your hard work keeping it going. 

I have a simple question I would like to see posed to the wise people for discussion on your blog under my by-line of WP. 

What would happen if the U.S. immediately ceased all aid and subsidies to Pakistan, burned all of its bases, equipment, and embassy in Afghanistan, and put all American troops, personnel, and contractors on planes back to the U.S. so they all arrived in time for Christmas?  Or, to put it another way, what would be the consequences of an immediate, total, and absolute withdrawal from Afghanistan and Pakistan? 

It is time for the U.S. radically to rethink its approach to the region.

JP"

 

Miss Daisy would be shocked.

This does not require commentary.  pl

http://www.youtube.com/v/DwptQxbnSBs

http://mondoweiss.net/2011/11/report-israeli-govt-warns-israelis-in-u-s-not-to-marry-american-jews-but-come-home.html

Jeff White on the FSA

"The Asad regime cannot survive without killing, and the FSA has changed the game from one in which the regime was free to kill its citizens at will and without cost, to one in which it faces an armed opposition and is suffering losses. Increased demands on government forces and further civilian deaths will produce more defections, and these processes will in turn escalate the fighting.

Because the FSA is an increasingly important player that will likely influence the outcome of events in Syria, the United States and its partners should make contact with its members and learn as much as possible about the group. Questions concerning its nature, its potential as an armed force, and the role of Islamists can be resolved through such contact as well as intelligence work. If the results are positive, then the FSA should be assisted wherever outside aid would be both possible and effective. Arms, advice, training, and money could be provided through clandestine channels, if nothing else."  Jeff White at WINEP

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That says "Al jaysh as-suri al-hur"  (Free Syrian Army).  Jeff White is an old DIA colleague and one of the best analysts around.   He is calling for what TTG and I have been preaching.  Perhaps it is already under way.  pl

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3429

"Advisers"

It is a standard ploy of the "big guys" in the Washington zoo scene to set up businesses in which they "advise" and make introductions but avoid having to register as lobbyists so that they can answer the "are you a lobbyist" question without flinching. Cohen, Kissinger, Scowcroft, Mcfarland (remember him) are all in this business as are a host of others. I am no "fan" of Gingrich but fair is fair. pl

Highlander asked.

Highlander 

My way of thinking such things through is entirely subjective.  I have always been opposed to systems of “objective” analysis of real world problems in the analysis of human affairs.  I have opposed them whether in intelligence or in academia.  The great difficulty with objective systems is that they inevitably build models for whatever they are studying.  Such models require that a problem be “factored” for the elements of the study.  This creates artificialities since human affairs concern humans and humans are more complex than any model can be made unless the subject studied is extremely narrow. Any widening of the subject beyond something like a market place mechanism is likely to lead to false results through an inability to reflect actual human thought.  Not surprisingly, social “scientists” do not like my position on this, but since none of them are Hari Seldon, I am not impressed. 

My own analysis is based on two altogether subjective aspects of my mental process: 

-        I view all of human experience as a continuum extending through time, developing, expanding and reflecting an accumulation of learning and development by human groups in a variety of paths, some of which share characteristics and many of which do not.  This is basically a river of moving data that is growing and changing as it flows.  We live in a small segment of that river’s current but the course of the river upstream has made our piece of the river what it is and the river flowing through and past us creates a future that is shaped by the stream as it flows forward in time.  This does not mean that what has been will necessarily be, but it does mean that the elements of the past will be present in any future.  It means that something truly new in human affairs is a rarity.  We often think things are new but usually that is because we do not know enough about the past.  I watch continuously for what  have recently been called “black swans.” 

-        I have spent my life accumulating knowledge in a wide variety of fields.  I have a good memory.  My mind is like a filing cabinet with most of the files available for inspection.  Anomalous phenomena stand out against the picture formed by the stream of history in much the same way that a moving object stands out against a static  or constant background.  I often see them clearly. 

Israel?  I don’t think God is a real estate agent and I don’t think the Israeli claim to a divine right to Palestine is anything more than the kind of myth making that Elie Khedourie discussed in his book on nationalism.  I have no objection to Israel, its existence or its regional ambitions.  I have never been interested in taking anyone’s side against the Israelis.  As I said before my only complaints about Israel are that they manipulate out political process to their advantage and to American disadvantage and they use their access to a 5^th column among our citizens to do it.   The other thing I don’t like about our relationship to Israel is that the relationship is very one sided.  The alliance with Israel has never been profitable on a net basis and it still is not.  Pl

Egyptian Developments - Yusuf al-Misry

Just thought to discuss one aspect of the Egyptian situation with Pat and all the friends here as in fact media reports in the US are getting way much better than earlier in reporting the day to day events. Yet, there is an obvious failure in discussing where these events lead, or the trends that emerge to create a new dynamism in Egypt and the region.

We all know by now that the MBs will win the day in the new parliament followed by the NDP. The question now is : then what?. The main concern of the Egyptians is the economic situation. Their victory in the 25^th of January lifted expectations to an unrealistic level. This brings  a sense of empowerment and a lack of patience.

On one hand, we have the Islamists who really do not have any economic plan other than returning to what was happening under Mubarak minus the flagrant corruption (to a certain degree). This pattern of economic “development” does not develop anything.   In the best case scenario the MBs will be unable to deliver fast enough and in the worst case they will not deliver at all.

With the youth who found their road to the main squares in Egyptian cities we might be in for a prolonged period of instability. Those who say that the instability is a result of the fall of Mubarak are simply wrong because his regime was unsustainable anyway. The question then is the question now :  if the Egyptians do not find soon enough a convincing path to real development we will be back to square one.

If such a path does not yield results fast enough it should at least be convincing to the majority of the population that it will eventually change the horrifying unemployment figures (the real ones).  It does not seem likely that either of these things will happen.   That being so, we will witness a couple of years of relative and uneasy calm at best.

Other issues that really need to be discussed is the relative gain of weight of the periphery countries surrounding the region as a result of the relative weakening of the “Arab World” – (God knows how I dislike this term). Also there are growing prospect of Shia unrest in the Gulf. Could it be the following wave?. But it is safer to remain in Egypt for now. Sorry for not writing more often.   Yusuf al-Misry

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I have said from the beginning that Egypt's main problem is economic and cultural, not political.  It is not a matter of personalities.  Egyptians just have too many children for the size of the national economic product.  pl

 

 

The ME - a Distant Land

Someone who used to post here, but evidently gave up put a comment on another blog to the effect that my views on the ME are unacceptable 1- because they are not Chomskyite (i.e. seeking revolution everywhere in the best anarchist and socialist tradition) and 2- because some of my views are compatible with Israeli analysis. I can only say that for me the ME is a distant and somewhat alien place even after so many years of work there or about there. Anyone who thinks I ever went "Asiatic" is wrong As for the Israelis and their views I am simply indifferent to the Israelis and their country. If they "get it right" at times, well, to quote von Rumsfeld, "even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then." pl

"OUR WORDY WORLD" by Michael Brenner

In the beginning was the Word.  Words soon followed as humans got into the habit of exchanging thoughts.  The Garden of Eden orchard scene likely had something to do with it since Adam and Eve surely felt an urgent need to tell their friends all about the awesome thing that had just happened.  Language was the natural accompaniment.  Speaking extended the range of bonding and permitted civilizations to form.  The pageant of human progress took off – eventually reaching its modern zenith albeit with some turbulence along the way, aggravated by the awkward Tower of Babel effect.

Today, communication is celebrated with fanfare as the spate of innovative electronic means to speak/write mounts.  Never before in human history has there been anything like this ease in reaching out and touching someone; and that means just about anyone anywhere - whether you know them or not.  Even whole masses of them at once.  People communicating with people is more than the lifeblood of society – it is now life itself.  The act of communication itself is paramount.  That does not necessarily mean actually connecting with another being. It is the self affirmation that has come to count above all else.  “I speak, therefore I am” is the idea behind the compulsion to express whatever is passing through our heads.  We know the phenomenon in our daily lives: a party of 6 with 4 (at least) talking at the same time.  Nothing learned but 6 gratified egos for having their share of ‘self expression’ time.  From bar to barber to broadcast studio, it is pretty much the same.

Cheaper than fighting?

"The strategy has been designed to encourage rank and file Taliban to stop fighting and instead return to their communities with “dignity and honour”.

More than 2,700 insurgents have been reintegrated into mainstream Afghan society since October 2010, with 800 now described as “showing interest in leaving the Taliban”.

Of those, about 90 are from Helmand, where nearly 400 British troops have been killed and more than 5,000 injured.

The reintegration policy has already produced some startling results. In northern Afghanistan, about 900 former Taliban have left the insurgency and violence has decreased by 30 per cent."  Telegraph

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Yes!  Yes!  Do it and do it seriously.  This worked in iraq.  Don't tell me it's harder to do in Afghanistan.  That's what we pay all those dozens of smart people generals for.  We pay them to do the hard things.  As the writer says, the prospect of death from NATO forces when combined with actual hard money to stop fighting is likely to be a very potent weapons system. 

Why should British, American and all the other kinds of NATO soldiers have to kill any more of these people than is completely unavoidable?  This tactic will not eliminate the leadership of the Taliban conglomeration but it may well weaken the groups enough to make the leaders vulnerable in a number of ways.

In addition we should take up an idea I "floated" a while back.  We should buy the opium crop and either re-purpose it into useful medications or destroy it.  This would take away a great deal of the money from the Taliban.

I can hear it now.  We can't do that!  That would be rewarding sin!  We can't forgive people who killed NATO soldiers!.  No?  Why not?  This is war.  We forgave the Germans and the Vietnamese communists.  We even forgave the British.

Let's get real about this war!  pl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/8901151/Taliban-paid-100-a-month-to-stop-fighting.html