My way of thinking such things through is entirely subjective. I have always been opposed to systems of “objective” analysis of real world problems in the analysis of human affairs. I have opposed them whether in intelligence or in academia. The great difficulty with objective systems is that they inevitably build models for whatever they are studying. Such models require that a problem be “factored” for the elements of the study. This creates artificialities since human affairs concern humans and humans are more complex than any model can be made unless the subject studied is extremely narrow. Any widening of the subject beyond something like a market place mechanism is likely to lead to false results through an inability to reflect actual human thought. Not surprisingly, social “scientists” do not like my position on this, but since none of them are Hari Seldon, I am not impressed.
My own analysis is based on two altogether subjective aspects of my mental process:
- I view all of human experience as a continuum extending through time, developing, expanding and reflecting an accumulation of learning and development by human groups in a variety of paths, some of which share characteristics and many of which do not. This is basically a river of moving data that is growing and changing as it flows. We live in a small segment of that river’s current but the course of the river upstream has made our piece of the river what it is and the river flowing through and past us creates a future that is shaped by the stream as it flows forward in time. This does not mean that what has been will necessarily be, but it does mean that the elements of the past will be present in any future. It means that something truly new in human affairs is a rarity. We often think things are new but usually that is because we do not know enough about the past. I watch continuously for what have recently been called “black swans.”
- I have spent my life accumulating knowledge in a wide variety of fields. I have a good memory. My mind is like a filing cabinet with most of the files available for inspection. Anomalous phenomena stand out against the picture formed by the stream of history in much the same way that a moving object stands out against a static or constant background. I often see them clearly.
Israel? I don’t think God is a real estate agent and I don’t think the Israeli claim to a divine right to Palestine is anything more than the kind of myth making that Elie Khedourie discussed in his book on nationalism. I have no objection to Israel, its existence or its regional ambitions. I have never been interested in taking anyone’s side against the Israelis. As I said before my only complaints about Israel are that they manipulate out political process to their advantage and to American disadvantage and they use their access to a 5th column among our citizens to do it. The other thing I don’t like about our relationship to Israel is that the relationship is very one sided. The alliance with Israel has never been profitable on a net basis and it still is not. Pl