Just thought to discuss one aspect of the Egyptian situation with Pat and all the friends here as in fact media reports in the US are getting way much better than earlier in reporting the day to day events. Yet, there is an obvious failure in discussing where these events lead, or the trends that emerge to create a new dynamism in Egypt and the region.
We all know by now that the MBs will win the day in the new parliament followed by the NDP. The question now is : then what?. The main concern of the Egyptians is the economic situation. Their victory in the 25th of January lifted expectations to an unrealistic level. This brings a sense of empowerment and a lack of patience.
On one hand, we have the Islamists who really do not have any economic plan other than returning to what was happening under Mubarak minus the flagrant corruption (to a certain degree). This pattern of economic “development” does not develop anything. In the best case scenario the MBs will be unable to deliver fast enough and in the worst case they will not deliver at all.
With the youth who found their road to the main squares in Egyptian cities we might be in for a prolonged period of instability. Those who say that the instability is a result of the fall of Mubarak are simply wrong because his regime was unsustainable anyway. The question then is the question now : if the Egyptians do not find soon enough a convincing path to real development we will be back to square one.
If such a path does not yield results fast enough it should at least be convincing to the majority of the population that it will eventually change the horrifying unemployment figures (the real ones). It does not seem likely that either of these things will happen. That being so, we will witness a couple of years of relative and uneasy calm at best.
Other issues that really need to be discussed is the relative gain of weight of the periphery countries surrounding the region as a result of the relative weakening of the “Arab World” – (God knows how I dislike this term). Also there are growing prospect of Shia unrest in the Gulf. Could it be the following wave?. But it is safer to remain in Egypt for now. Sorry for not writing more often. Yusuf al-Misry
I have said from the beginning that Egypt's main problem is economic and cultural, not political. It is not a matter of personalities. Egyptians just have too many children for the size of the national economic product. pl