As we all know, Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's government fell yesterday when Hizbullah and their Christian 'Awni allies withdrew from support of the government. Between them they have nearly half the seats in parliament. When Jumblatt's unpredicatable but possible support is added to that, a working majority may emerge that will name the next PM. Such a PM is likely to be a hard-line Lebanese and Arab nationalist who will look to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran for support rather than to the Israeli/US Codominium.
This situation represents yet another "triumph" for the Natanyahu/Obama Administration. Having lost the struggle over the content of the Iran NIE, Israel/the WH/AIPAC is forced to "retreat" to mere rhetorical threats and murmurs about "increased military pressure" and other fantasies.
In fact, the intelligence developments determine that the US is not going to fight Iran as Israel's proxy. Left to their own devices the Israelis are faced with the prospect of acting against Iran alone (likely to be a losing effort), attacking Lebanon in frustration, or doing nothing.
If they attack, then Lebanon must expect yet another campaign of deep bombing against civil infrastructure targets. Such efforts have never brought a softening of Lebanese policies towards Isael, but the Israelis have no better, more productive ideas that they are willing to try. In the front line area between the two countries, a renewal of fighting on the 2006 lines would involve a lot more Hizbullah rocket fire into Israel, more air defense weapons and newly built and organized defenses. Iran continues to provide "depth" to Hizbullah's military efforts in terms of supply, training and theater level backing for deterrence of Israel. This is exactly what Israel does not want. pl