Sic Semper Tyrannis

Various

Adam Silverman has been given author privileges here.  A number of others have as well and have never used them.  Remember, if you do that I expect you to edit your own writings, not me.

In re the gibberish in the media, the MB in Egypt is a specific political-religious institution.  That is quite different from the general religiosity of the Egyptian people which is also a major factor.  pl 

Bashir and Hariri - Richard Sale parts 1 & 2

Bashir and Hairiri  (Part One) 

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars 

The history of our foreign policy in the Middle East are so  ugly and twisted and so stolid and remorselessly ruthless that reviewing them is a real glimpise into genuine moral squalor.  

Lebanon is an excellent example. U.S. policy there in 1982 was under the influence of the truculent hawk, Ariel Sharon. Israel was then supplying covert support to the main Christian group in Beirut, the right-wing Phalangist party, headed by Bashir Gemayel who had the face of a baby and the mind of wolverine. Sharon came to America asking that the Reagan people put up another $ 1- million to support Bashir.  The Reagan people were deeply in thrall to Israeli views and, like Israel, they saw Lebanon as a “regional influence,” and like Casey thought that the PLO was the major threat to Israel and were delighted that Bashir also loathed the PLO. 

Little ducks in a row. 

Israel rebukes America over treachery toward Mubarak.

 
"One comment by Aviad Pohoryles in the daily Maariv was entitled "A Bullet in the Back from Uncle Sam." It accused Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of pursuing a naive, smug, and insular diplomacy heedless of the risks.

Who is advising them, he asked, "to fuel the mob raging in the streets of Egypt and to demand the head of the person who five minutes ago was the bold ally of the president ... an almost lone voice of sanity in a Middle East?"

"The politically correct diplomacy of American presidents throughout the generations ... is painfully naive.""  Reuters

-------------------------------------

I have news for all you Zionists out there.  In my experience our (American) word to friends is generally "good" only when the general childishness and ignorance of our; academics, journalists and politicians is not threatened by reality in some way.  Oh, yes, and then there is the general public.  This brings to mind the tourist people who got off planes in Cairo yesterday and expressed surprise that there is a problem in the streets.  In someone's priceless remark, they should have stayed at home watching "American Idol."

Today I heard the "great " journalist Andrea Mitchell" discuss this matter with Martin Indyk the transplanted British/Australian/"American" foreign affairs phenomenon.  He was broadcasting from Brookings where he lives off Zionist money at the Saban Center.

While she fawned, smiled and nodded, this great thinker said (paraphrasing) that the Arab rulers should "understand" that they should "get on the right side of history" before it is too late.  If he doesn't know that any sign of weakness in the crisis now upon them will bring them down, then he does not deserve his reutation as a "statesman."  He then expressed the belief that the fall of these rulers would be a catastrophic event for the United States and Israel.  She continued to smile. 

His remark implies of course that there IS a "right side" of history.  Childish. 

BTW, why aren't he and the Saban Center registered under FARA?  pl

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/us-egypt-israel-usa-idUSTRE70U53720110131

Pakistan Nucs = 100

 
"Pakistan's nuclear arsenal now totals more than 100 deployed weapons, a doubling of its stockpile over the past several years in one of the world's most unstable regions, according to estimates by nongovernment analysts."  Washpost - Karen de Young

--------------------------------------------

One of my favorite "hobby horses," why do the Israelis not act more concerned about this?  I thnk that the iproduct improved Shaheen 2 ranges Israel from western Baluchistan.  even if it does not as yet the weapons system has to be regarded as a threat in Tel Aviv.  Do the Israelis really think we can protect them from this?  If they do they are kidding themselves.  A deterrent against India?  Today, yes.  Tomorrow Who knows?  pl

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/30/AR2011013004136.html?hpid=topnews

An Answer for GregB: An Islamic Reformation?

Adam L. Silverman PhD[1]

On 27 JAN, in a comment on COL Lang’s column on de Borchgrave and revolution, GregB asked if we might be seeing “the beginning of an Islamic Reformation.”  He is not the first person to ask that or to seek an answer.  I’ve had the idea bouncing around in the back of my head off and on for a while.  And while there is not as much research into this question as I’d like, some of the oldest actually goes back to Max Weber – one of the fathers of today’s social sciences.  Weber took up this issue, but died before he could complete his work.  It has since been picked up by Clifford Geertz (informally), and several others working in this strain of inquiry. 

The Outlook for Egypt and the Middle East Is Grim By - Robert K. Lifton

While the world watches the events in Egypt play out, we should recognize a disturbing reality.  No matter what the results of the uprising, Egypt will be a volatile nation, no longer a country that the United States can count on to maintain a stable, peaceful Middle East. If President Mubarak manages to stop the demonstrations by use of force, it will only be a matter of time before they erupt again and again. Once the populace has tasted the freedom to assemble and demonstrate - even to react violently - they will resort to it again. The pressure on the Mubarak regime will never stop until he leaves office. Meantime, he will not have the power or flexibility to play the role he played until now; in maintaining the peace, however cold it may be, with Israel and the stability of the region.

More sensible attitudes on Egypt today

"The United States wants to see steps taken to transition Egypt to a democracy, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Sunday in remarks that avoided stating a U.S. preference about Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's fate but offered several positive marks for Egypt's army."  Fox.com

-----------------------------------------------------------

Having watched the early Sunday newsies, I would say that judgments in the Obama Administration and the punditry are solidifying in the dorection of advocating a managed transition to democratic election with the sponsorship and protection of the Egyptian armed forces.

Clinton's statement on FNS today struck (IMO) the right note with regard to an orderly transition and the role that it is expected the army will play.  One can be sure that the lines of communication between the Pentagon and the Egyptian General Staff are wide open.  The installation of respected (within the military) figures like the new VP and PM bodes well for the future if the mob and its supporters do not panic the world into a blind acceptance of street theater.

For those who are sure that Islamists have no future in the successor governments, one should note the arrival in Tunisa of Rashid Ghanoushi, the Islamist politican who has been in exile since Bourguiba sent him there.  He is a dangerous, seductive man who reasons like a Cartesian and believes like Al-Ghazali.  pl

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/01/30/clinton-calls-egypts-transition-democracy-urges-path-avoid-power-vacuum/

 

Omar Suleiman sworn in as VP

I understand from TV coverage from Cairo that MG (Ret.) Omar Suleiman, head or former head of the General Intelligence Directorate (not police), has been sworn in as vice president of the country in a televised ceremony.

I think this is a significant development that probably indicates that President Mubarak is preparing to leave.  He has not had a vice president, probably not wishing to appoint someone who might be an obstacle to the succession of his son, Gamal.

Suleiman was a career combat arms officer of the Egyptian Arrmy who was appointed as a major general to be head of Egyptian military intelligence.  I came to know him well when he served in that capacity for several years.  He is an intelligent, worldly man who is also a pious Muslim of the old school.  He is respected in Egypt as an honest man.  He has carried out many difficult assignments for Egypt and is well thought of in international circles.  Like Mubarak, Sadat and Nasser he became an officer through the efforts of the royal government to bring ordinary Egyptians into the officer corps.  There were special schools for that. Their existence dates back to the 19th century when there were a substantial number of American officers serving in the Egyptian Army.  They advocated creation of these schools.  He is a son of the lower middle class and not a product of the oligarchy.  After retirment from the army he became head of Egyptian civilian intelligence.  He is described as a confident of Mubarak.  I think that is an exageration as he has often been subjected to the whims of Mubarak who loved to play his senior officials off against each other.

He is quite elderly.  If he succeeds to the preisdency, I feel sure that he will see himself as an interim figure.  The National Assembly would probably declare him to be interim president.  pl 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Egypt#Succession

 

Bakhtiar: a reminiscence - Richard Sale

By Richard Sale, author of Clinton’s Secret Wars 

(I agree with Pat’s excellent posting on the eruptions in Tunis and Egypt. Islam is not only a regliion, it is a social order and its ways are not our ways. Inside every Tunisian or Egyptian there is NOT a liberal democrat trying to get out.

But Pat’s mention of Bakthair made me remeber the following.) 

In the summer of 1980, I was in Paris for National Public Radio. Khomeini was in power in Iran, and a war between Iraq and Iran was gathering force. Paris, in other words,  was a Balkan city at the time of World War I, seething with spies, in such abundance they were tripping over themselves. . Especially prevalent were the CIA guys and their proxies (exiles from Iran), busy  exchanging intelligence, estimates, assessments –  sizing things up.

Obama's Statement

I will write on this tomorrow, but as a preliminary, I would say that president Obama tonight de-legitimized Mubarak.  Egyptian government will now become an American problem.  pl