Mr. Cumming: the major Shi'a parties in Iraq are all Iranian clients. They (Dawa, ISCI, Badr -ISCI's militia and now the majority of Arabs in the Iraqi Army) were all established in exile, by exile Shi'a, with the political, religions, and economic support of Iran's government. The Badr Corps were established and trained by Revolutionary Guards, specifically, if I recall correctly, the Quds Force. And it has been reported that many of the Badr Corps members who have returned to Iraq are still receiving pensions from Iran. Additionally, both of the major Kurdish factions - the Barzanis and the Talabanis - received support from Iran as a check on Saddam Hussein. Finally, while he is, at best, an unreliable client, Muqtada al Sadr is in need of the Iranian clerics as they're the only ones that will make him an ayatullah - or at least string him along; so they have some leverage. Sunni Islam is the largest sect of Islam. The Twelver Shi'a are predominantly found in Iraq, Iran (where they make a vast and close to homogenous religious majority), the other Gulf Arab states, Lebanon - where they have a sizable presence, and the Eastern areas of Saudi Arabia where it borders Iraq. The Ismaili or Sevener Shi'a can be found in Pakistan (I would also estimate parts of Bangladesh, Kashmir, and India too, but Brigadier Ali will know more than I on this given that he is from that neighborhood) and parts of sub-Saharan Africa. The Zaydis or Fiver Shi'a are predominantly found in Yemen. The only place where the Shi'a hold an almost complete majority, and I'm referring to Twelver Shi'a, is in Iran. They hold a very sizable one in Iraq, and make up a significant portion of the Lebanese (there are large and ongoing disputes over the ethno-sectarian makeup of Lebanon, and I've not seen any reliable numbers recently, so don't want to speculate) and Gulf Arab state populations. The Twelver minority in Saudi Arabia is always under threat as Wahabbiya is genocidally disposed towards the Shi'a (among others). In the only place where the Twelver Shi'a actually run the state, which is Iran, they have control over the Defense Forces. Their spending on them, especially compared to the US or even Israel or Saudi, is small. Essentially our misadventure in Iraq has helped make Iran a major, if not the major, regional power. They control power, water, food, and other essentials going into Iraq as Iraq has minimal power generation, which means minimal water, meaning min imal agriculture or industry. The Iranians have filled the void that resulted from our failure to act in accord with our status as occupying power: to fix the infrastructure. Unfortunately, what is going to happen, as I've noted repeatedly here at SST, is that the Sunni and Shi'a will go after each other in Iraq. The Sunnis are outnumbered, but as COL Lang indicated they will likely be resourced from outside. Meaning an extended low to medium level environment of political violence ranging from terrorism to civil war, which the Sunnis won't be able to win, but will likely fight anyway. And the other reality is that those pushing the COIN brand, whether they have become brands of their own, will claim that COIN didn't fail, it was never properly administered and therefore never got a real test in Iraq. THey'll find someone to throw under the bus - a general or ambassador - and then they'll go on to the next place they'd like to try to do 3rd Party Counterinsurgency Operation.
Dr. Adam Silverman
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