Sic Semper Tyrannis

Someone should tell Larry Derfner that he is an Anti-Semite.

"Victims? Lambs to the slaughter? Us?

No, this has gone beyond embarrassing; this is out-and-out shameful.

And, despite our excuses, it's not that we're "traumatized" by the past into believing that we're still weak, still the frightened, powerless Jews about to be led to the gas chambers. Many Holocaust survivors still believe this, and to some very limited extent, this vestigial fear still takes up space in the Israeli mind.

But by now, 64 years after the Holocaust, 42 years after seeing in the Six Day War how strong we'd become, we know, whether we admit it to ourselves or not, that we aren't the victims anymore. We know we aren't a continuation of the 6 million but rather a deliberate and stark departure from them.

THE REASON we tell ourselves and the world that we are victims is because we know, whether we admit it to ourselves or not, that victimhood is power. Victimhood is freedom. A victim can't be told to restrain himself. A victim fighting for survival can't be accused of abusing his power because, after all, his back is to the wall, he's desperate.

On the facts, it's very hard to convince ourselves, let alone the world, that Gaza and its Kassams have pushed Fortress Israel's back to the wall, that we're desperate, that we're struggling to survive. So, to convince ourselves and the world that this really is so, we do two things.

One, we refuse to acknowledge any facts that mar this image of ourselves as victims, and instead go over and over and over only the facts that fit the picture. "  Derfner in the JP

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I hope the Israelis can find their way out of the dark forest of nationalism.  pl

 

More Nozette Court papers

30 October 2009

Here are some more documents from the court files in the new attempted espionage case against Stewart Nozette and in the older, pending case against him for conspiracy to commit fraud and tax evasion.

I. The attempted espionage case.

There was a detention hearing yesterday, 29 October 2009, before a magistrate, and Nozette was ordered held before trial without bail. I doubt he will appeal the detention order to the district judge in the trial court.

1. Motion to reassign the case as a related case.

Since the earlier case was in a different court than that of Judge Reggie Walton, the government asked that the new case be transferred to the other court, Judge James Robertson presiding. Filed 28 October 2009.

2. Government's memorandum in support of detention pending trial. Filed 10-28-2009.

This lays out some proposed facts and legal argument in support of detaining Nozette without bail pending trial.

The memo notes that he was given $10,000 by the undercover informant during the last meeting, and then went into the bathroom and put it in the toilet tank. Also, it asserts that Nozette has numerous residential properties including a home in Chevy Chase, Maryland which was given a tax assessment value of $1,959,999.00, and a vacation home on Merritt Island, Florida with a claimed value of $550,000.00.

Those are some pretty nice cribs.

3. Exhibit "A" in support of the request for pretrial detention.

This is a bad copy of what appears to be his release order in the pending fraud and tax evasion case, in which he was released on his own signature ("personal recognizance"), and did not have to post bail.

Exhibit "B" is not included because it is the complaint and supporting affidavit in the espionage case and they have been posted previously.

Exhibit "C" is not included because it is described as an early transcript of some more taped conversations. It is noted as being "restricted" and does not appear to be a public document at this time.

4. Defendant's opposition to motion for pretrial detention.

Filed 10-28-2009.

II. The earlier pending case for fraud and tax evasion.

This case is one of those in which the defendant knows a charge is coming, and he and his lawyers go in early and make a deal before an arrest takes place. He waived his right to be formally charged by a grand jury indictment, and pled guilty on 30 January 2009. Sentencing was postponed.

On 23 April 2009 attorney Bradford Berenson entered an appearance for Nozette, and then the lawyers who had been representing him withdrew. Berenson had a White House job during the first term of Bush jr.

Nozette's sentencing in the earlier case was reset to

18 November 2009, but will probably be postponed again.

His new lawyer, Berenson, filed today a motion to continue his sentencing in light of the new case.

The government did not agree to reset the sentencing.

Since he picked up a new case, there is an issue of whether the government will try to cancel the plea agreement, but since it wants to proceed with sentencing, the plea agreement may stay in place.

5. Plea agreement in the fraud and tax evasion case.

6. Statement of the offense.

This is the "factual basis" to support the plea of guilty in the earlier case.

7. Motion to continue sentencing. Filed 30 October 2009.

Robert Willmann, Jr.

 

Download Nozette_def_reply_govt_reqdetain.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_memosupport_exhA.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_memosupport_reqdetain.pdf

Download Nozette_govt_reqtrans_newjudge.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_plea_agreement.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_plea_factbasis.pdf

Download Nozette_othercase_req_resetsentencing

NYU Conference on Counterinsurgency - 20 November, 2009

Download Save the Date! November 20 Conference

"Cautious Progress in Iran" Adam L. Silverman

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) held its first scheduled inspections of Iran’s recently disclosed nuclear facility at Qom.  This is a sign of cautious progress in regards to Iran’s nuclear energy program, as well as dealings with the US and other concerned actors.  While many have indicated that its clear that the Obama Administration’s diplomacy has achieved more in one day of negotiations than was achieved by the belligerent posturing of the previous eight years[1], things are clearly not so easily resolved.  For instance, COL (ret) Lang recently wrote that the internal Iranian deliberations over shipping nuclear material to Russia for processing into fuel and storage seem to have bogged down and while that is troubling,[2] there are a few Iranian realities that I think bear keeping in mind.  While a top ten list of things that most Americans do not know about Iran has recently been published by Professor Cole[3], I think that three items need to be focused on.

1)    Mahmud Ahmedinijad has very little power or authority.  Iranian President Mahmud Ahmedinijad, given to making hyperbolic, grandiose, and often belligerently disturbing statements has almost no power or authority.  While it is true that he is closely tied to elements of the Islamic Revolution because of his participation in that event, he is, for all intents and purposes, the mayor of Tehran.  The real power in Iran lies with Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali al Khameini and his fellow clerics.  Essentially Iran has two governmental systems: the real one led and controlled by the clerics that is non-representative and non-democratic and an essentially pretend system of semi-liberal democracy that allows for the election of a president and a parliamentary body.  It is semi-liberal because the elected executive and legislative branches have no real ability to effect change, who can and can not run is controlled by the religious authorities, and these authorities also control law enforcement, the courts, and the military.  As a result of this reality, it is necessary to essentially ignore Ahmedinijad’s antics and pay close attention to what is going in the shadows behind him; actions and activities led by the religious authorities and controlled by Ayatullah Khameini.

2)    The 2009 Elections Demonstrated the Cracks in the Rule of the Clerics.  The badly handled elections and post-election demonstrations have shown that the divisions among the clerics that originally existed at the time of the Islamic Revolution have not gone away.  While the late Ayatullah Khomeini’s version of Velyati al Fiqh, rule according to Islamic Jurisprudence, or more accurately Velyati al Ulama, rule according to the Islamic Clerics, ultimately carried the day in 1979, there were competing versions that were less extreme.  While none of the competing variants could be called liberal, in the classic use of the term, several of them were much more moderate in comparison to Ayatullah Khomeini’s undertaking.  This summer’s election was in some ways really about whether to continue solidly on the reactionary path that is the result of Ayatullah Khomeini’s version of Velyati al Fiqh, or adjust to what would still be a very conservative and controlling form of government, but one which would be more moderate and accommodating by comparison.  It is quite likely that the delay in the decision over sending nuclear material to Russia is partially the result of debate between different factions of the clerical elite who hold different views on the nature of how the Islamic Revolution should move forward.

3)    This Second Nuclear Facility was Built at Qom for a Reason.  Qom was not chosen at random for the site of this second Iranian nuclear enrichment facility.  Qom houses the most important Twelver Shia academy and center of learning in Iran and it is second in importance only to Najaf in Iraq.  It is important to remember that when Ayatullah Khomeini was exiled by the Shah he went from Qom to the centers of Shia learning at Najaf and described this with colorful language that what was buried at Qom had burrowed down and now reemerged in Najaf.  Qom was chosen as a site for a strategic reason: attacking it will likely cause damage to the religious academy and shrines at Qom, which would in turn mobilize every Twelver Shia in Iran, Iraq, the Gulf States, and Levant against the US and its interests and objectives – not just in the Middle East, but everywhere.  It is also likely to rally other Shia – the Seveners and the Fivers, as well as many Sunnis to the Iranian cause.  The longstanding, and largely unrealistic, fear that Iran will export its Islamic Revolution becomes more plausible if Qom is targeted.

The reality of dealing with Iran and its nuclear ambitions is difficult, even more so than just acknowledging these three often unmentioned realities.  While the cracks in the experiment that is the Islamic Revolution have been clearly showing for several months now, the US and its allies need to tread very carefully in dealing with Iran.  The location of the nuclear facilities, as well as the subterranean and hardened nature of their construction, makes a successful attack on them very difficult.  Moreover, while positively encouraging the more moderate Iranian political, social, and religious movements is a good thing, anything seen as meddling in Iranian politics, let alone a military attack on Iran, will mobilize Iranians around their national identity and lead to an increase of anti-American, anti-Western, and reactionarily isolationist sentiment.  Given that there are not any really good military options for dealing with Iran that will not make our endeavors in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere much more difficult, the approach of cautious diplomacy is the best course of action to take.  The key isn’t to do something radical and drag Iran and Iranians kicking and screaming to where we want them to be all at once, rather it is to encourage them to move themselves to that point and to show them it is in their best interest to end their semi-isolation.  If military options become the priority the Iran problem set will become insoluble; once you attack Iran you can not unattack them.  This is the real lesson of Iraq: once you drop the bombs and start fighting there is no way to successfully unwind events if you do not achieve the results you were seeking.

Adam l. Silverman

---

[1] http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/2009/10/a-good-beginning-with-iran.html, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/76369.html

[2] http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2009/10/next-week-is-important-for-iran.html

[3] http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/10/01/cole/

Adam L. Silverman, PhD was the Field Social Scientist and Team Lead for Human Terrain Team Iraq 6 (HTT IZ6) assigned to the 2BCT/1AD in 2008.  Upon his redeployment from Iraq he served as the Strategic Communication Advisor for the US Army's Human Terrain System.  The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the 2BCT/1AD, HTT IZ6, the US Army Human Terrain System, or the US Army."  

Nozette wanted $2 million for his secrets.

Nozette will have a hearing in federal court soon on the issue of bail.  He should not be given bail.  He stated to a colleague" that he would flee if faced with imprisonment over his earlier coviction for false billing of the US government in contracts that his "not for profit" business had obtained.  He also had cached $50,000 worth of gold coins in a California safe deposit bank against an "emergency."  He will run if given a chance. 

It is clear that the FBI and the Justice Department are serious about this case.  Nozette had been feeding the "Israel Aerospace Industries" company information for many years.  He was a consultant for them.  They paid him about a quarter million dollars for his "advice." This was at the same time that he held very high US security clearances for the US defense work that he was doing.  There has been an obvious effort to portray this man as a harmless "Mr. Wizard" or "Bill Nye, the Science Guy" type who mumbled on about water ice on the moon.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  He knows a lot about US Defense technology.

From the Israeli point of view (or for that matter the Indian point of view) the chief concern has to be what will come out in court...

The FBI has built many, many "shovel ready" cases that are ready or almost ready for prosecution in similar matters.  In this instance the administration "green lighted" this case for action.  Why is that?

Think it over.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/28/AR2009102805055.html

Not a bad solution.

"President Obama’s advisers are focusing on a strategy for Afghanistan aimed at protecting about 10 top population centers, administration officials said Tuesday, describing an approach that would stop short of an all-out assault on the Taliban while still seeking to nurture long-term stability.

Mr. Obama has yet to make a decision and has other options available to him, but as officials described it, the debate is no longer over whether to send more troops, but how many more will be needed. The question of how much of the country should fall under the direct protection of American and NATO forces will be central to deciding how many troops will be sent.

At the moment, the administration is looking at protecting Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Jalalabad and a few other village clusters, officials said. The first of any new troops sent to Afghanistan would be assigned to Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual capital, seen as a center of gravity in pushing back insurgent advances.

But military planners are also pressing for enough troops to safeguard major agricultural areas, like the hotly contested Helmand River valley, as well as regional highways essential to the economy — tasks that would require significantly more reinforcements beyond the 21,000 deployed by Mr. Obama this year."  NY Times

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This strategy would avoid the trap of unrealistic goals designed to secure the whole country and population.  A strategy of that scope would logically have demanded a limitless number of soldiers in order to protect that population against attacks and threats that could easily be sized and paced by the Taliban confederation for the purpose of drawing more and more allied troops into the country.  The number of troops needed and the vast sea of money involved would "soon" exhaust the patience of the american people.

The strategy described in this article will satisfy both the passion of the counterinsurgent for people-protection and provide the bases needed for the continuation of a strategy aimed at disrupting Al-Qa'ida and other zealot forces that might become a danger to the US and NATO allies.

Realistically, this strategy should not require more than 35,000 foreign soldiers, but the politics of the decision process will probably demand more than that, at least for a while...

The famously effective but little honored methods that led to success in Iraq;  use of indigenous irregular groups, HUMINT penetration of hostile groups using the base cities as operating space, and use of these cities as springboards for targeted operations will produce the same results in Afghanistan.  It should be understood that such methods do not lead to permanent solutions, but they do lead to accomplishment of our goals.

Let us not forget that the same kind of enemies who attacked us here can be found around the world.  To deal with them we must find methods that do not demand limitless numbers of troops,  and seas of money.  pl

How it is that Bob McDonnell will be the next Va. governor.

"...an improvement for Deeds in the critical Northern Virginia region, where he now holds a 56 to 43 percent lead in the left-leaning Washington suburbs. But that lead is swamped by significant and growing deficits in every other region of the state.

McDonnell appears to be in a particularly dominant position in the state's rural west, an area the Democrat had labeled "Deeds Country" because it includes his Bath County home. Although Deeds has devoted considerable resources to the region, he trails there 63 to 36 percent.

Obama's approval rating is at its low point in that part of the state: 46 percent of registered voters in the western areas give him positive marks. And opposition to the proposed changes to the nation's health-care system peaks at 58 percent.

Statewide, 53 percent oppose the efforts at health-care reform; 43 percent are supportive. "   Washpost

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The data on page A-18 of today's Washington Post says to me that Virginia remains much as it has been.  McDonnell is way ahead everywhere in the commonwealth except for the Democratic Party dominated enclave along the Potomac River.  Alexandria city and Arlington County are his only real areas of strength and that is not enough.

The state still prefers conservative governance.  Deeds, by no means a liberal in the Northern sense, is trailing McDonnell even in Bath County, his home.  Deeds is ahead in the riverine zone here, but even that support is not as enthusiastic as it have been expected to be.

The last general election (2008) was strongly affected by revulsion against the Bush Administration and the novelty of Obama's candidacy.  Both of those phenomena are past and the groups that turned out to vote against Bush's ghost and for Obama have lapsed into the passivity that characterizes them politically.

To compound the Demcrats' problem, Bob McDonnell reads well all over the state, (including up here in Alexandria and Arlington) as an authentic Virginian, something important to a region (dare I say a people?) where identity still matters.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have failed in the past to understand Virginia.  They still do.  The Republicans just got lucky this time in their choice of candidate.

The Democrats should take comfort in the probability that McDonnell wold have beaten Terry McAuliffe even  more severely.  pl

 

Update on Sunday's Baghdad bombings.

"As the floodwater from broken water mains and sewers drained away, workers continued to hunt for victims amid the wreckage from Sunday’s bomb blasts, recovering still more bodies on Monday as the death toll climbed to as much as 155 — including an uncertain number of children — with more than 500 wounded." 

"Elsewhere in Iraq on Monday, a suicide car bomber struck a checkpoint outside Karbala in the afternoon, killing four civilians, according to Sattar Ardawi, chief of the Karbala provincial council’s security committee.

In Babel Province, south of Baghdad, three beheaded bodies were found at an abandoned farm about 25 miles north of Hilla, one that of an Iraqi soldier, according to a security source in the provincial government. In Mosul, in northern Iraq, four people died in three separate attacks."  NY Times

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Predictably, the place is coming apart again. 

The neocons and their media supporters have immediately raised the prospect of a halt to withdrawal.  That merits discussoin here.  pl

PS - I remember St. George's Anglican church well from my visits to Baghdad in the 80s. 

A New Surge in Iraq

 
"Twin car bombs targeted two government buildings in downtown Baghdad Sunday, wrecking pillars of the state's authority and cutting like a scythe through snarled traffic during the morning rush hour. The government said at least 132 people were killed and 520 wounded in one of the worst attacks in Baghdad.

The first bomb struck an intersection near the Justice Ministry and the Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works at around 10:15 a.m. on the first day of the Iraqi work week, when streets are always more crowded. Less than a minute later, a second blast targeted the Baghdad provincial headquarters, draped in a sign heralding its renovation.

The bombings bore the hallmarks of an attack Aug. 19 that targeted the Finance and Foreign Ministries, also killing more than 100 people. Unlike the carnage unleashed by attacks in crowded mosques, restaurants and markets, aimed at igniting sectarian strife, these blasts appeared to rely on a distinct political calculus, designed to undermine faith in the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has staked his political future on restoring a semblance of security to the war-wrecked country.

"This is part of the struggle over power in Iraq, and Iraqis will have to sacrifice themselves for it," said Mohammed al-Rubai, an opponent of Maliki who serves as a member of the Baghdad provincial council. "Everyone in charge shares responsibility." "  Shadid

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Homage to those who have bled for this piece of s--t.  Homage to those who soldier on there. 

The "Surge" + the "rent an Iraqi sheikh" program + an acceptance of the intra-shia struggle for political power, these were the ingredients in reducing the level of violence in Iraq.  None of that soved the essential political problem in the country.

That situation could have continued indefinitely but American naivete and belief in the nonsense of nation-state building have led us to walk away from our Sunni clients and now they are angry at what they see as betrayal.  Are the abna al-'iraq (Sons of Iraq) directly involved or are they just sitting on their hands?  Does it matter?  pl  

Next week is important for Iran.

IAEA inspectors will have a look at the Qom enrichment site this weekend.  Good.  The surrepticious construction of this site badly undermined the position of those in the West who wish to find some way other than war to deal with Iran's nuclear program.  The site is the wrong size to be useful in enriching fuel for an electricity program.  It was hardened and placed inside a defended military base of the IRGC.  The simplest explanation for all that is that it part of a system for acquisition of weapons grade uranium.

At the same time the Iranian government seems to be struggling with an internal decision as to whether or not to ship its present stock of low enrichment uranium to some foreign country for fabrication into fuel rods for electric plants.  Why is there an internal struggle?  Is it because there are two parties; 1- The party that wants eventually to produce nuclear weapons and 2- The party that wants cheap electric power and better relations with the rest of the world (us).

The clock is running.  All options are still on the table.  This is not about justice.  It is about life and death for many.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/23/AR2009102303757.html?wpisrc=newsletter

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/23/AR2009102301853.html?sid=ST2009102400101