Sic Semper Tyrannis

This and that---

There are some strange things in the air:

Cheney - I think you have to go back to the problems that Andrew Jackson had with Calhoun to find an example of a former vice-president who chooses to wage war against a new administration.  Am I right about that?  His behavior is in such bad taste that I am driven to wonder why he is acting this way.   In accordance with "Lang's Rules of Analysis" (25 May, 2007 in SST) I suppose that the most likely answer is that he is simply afraid of his own fate.  He was so central to everything that occurred in the first GW Bush administration that he stands to lose heavily as details are revealed of the "policies" that he and his henchmen and allies espoused.  At the risk of sinking to the level of "reductio ad hitlerum," I must say that a lot of his stated rationale for torture as an instrument of statecraft is reminiscent of a famous speech that Himmler made to senior SS leaders at the Wewelsburg Castle.  "We must sacrifice our higher sensitivities in the service of the state, etc." (paraphrasing) Ugh.  Cheney also sounds as though someone is feeding him talking points.  I doubt that he is smart enough to originate a lot of these memes and themes.

Iraq- The Bushies in exile are selling the line that we have made a new Iraq (a brave new Iraq), an Iraq that Obama may "lose" through hasty withdrawal.  This is "preparation of the information battlefield" for an eventual "we wuz robbed" (nous sommes trahis) propaganda campaign.

Where is this new Iraq?  Is it the Iraq in which we have reversed the social order by putting the Shia Arabs in charge so that they can demonstrate that there was nothing unique about the way the Sunnis used to treat them.  Is it the Iraq that is now inevitably going to be in the "orbit" of Iran?  Is it the Iraq in which the central government in Baghdad has even less authority in Kurdistan than before. Is it the Iraq that bristles with hostility to the US?  Where is it?  It is nowhere.  We broke Iraq and now we are inevitably leaving it patched together with duct tape.  Will it fall apart when we leave?  Maybe.

Afghanistan - "She who must be obeyed" is a bigtime civic activist (Tribune of the People) here in our fair city.  She is often invited to conferences, meetings, workshops, etc. at which the developer/citygovernment/chamberofcommerce complex stages farces that they call strategic reviews or citizen/government interactions on questions of land use.  At these theatrical productions the "players" earnestly present the "issues" and "possible decisions" to the assembled "Tribunes of the people."  There are Power Point shows.  Lunch is served.  The "players" (with Tribunes) break down into small groups where "hard questions" are asked and sincere "players" give the Tribunes heartfelt responses.  In the end the herd instinct of humans prevails and the Tribunes "buy into" the players' plans.

The US military has become expert in the business of manipulating public opinion.  They hire contractors to help them.  The Army has created a basic officer personnel branch for career propaganda officers.  Vietnam caused the Army to believe that management of public opinion was a basic task of warfare along with fire, maneuver and logistics.  Now, we are all targets of "information operations," some mounted overseas by foreign government, some by our own government to include the US military.  They mean well.

The vogue for "strategic reviews" is a manifestaton of this process.  I have been invited to a few of these.  In these farcical proceedings, "guru" types are invited, lunch is served, small group discussion takes place, and the talking heads and "gurus" become advocates for the desires of those who have successfully flattered and nodded them into agreement.  The press is full of the oped pieces of McChrystal's "advisers,"  oped pieces that concentrate on settng the stage for eventul demands for more and more resources for Afghanistan.   What is not asked, EVER, is the simple question of what the ultimate goal of the United States should be in Afghanistan.  Why is that?

I feel sorry for the president.  He is under constant attack by both internal and external propagandists and information warriors.  pl

"Rough Terrain" by Vanessa Genzer

"That started him thinking: What if soldiers provided real, dependable security to even one Afghan village? If the village were actually safe, development and jobs could follow.

In counterinsurgency circles, this is called the "oil spot" strategy. The term was coined by the French soldier and administrator Louis Hubert Lyautey, who was sent to colonial Morocco and Indochina in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. In Hanoi, he watched as soldiers set up a network of military posts to protect villagers and keep out insurgents, and armed locals to defend themselves. With "pacification a great band of civilization advances like a spot of oil," Lyautey wrote.

In the months before Karl's deployment, his enthusiasm for this approach had grown so noticeable that Banger and others had taken to calling him Oil Spot Spock. Karl envisioned soldiers securing a single village or area -- the first spot of oil -- and using its success to spread safety and development drop by drop. Areas outside the chosen villages would be treated as battle zones, where soldiers would know unequivocally that they were at war. If the conflict were divided into hot and cool zones, Karl thought, soldiers could focus their humanitarian aid and development efforts in friendly areas and fight in unfriendly ones. They might have a better chance of avoiding an explosion such as the one in the bazaar. "  Vanessa Gezen

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The "Human Terrain System" (HTS) is a program for which I have a great personal regard.  I helped to train some of these people.  They are very good people.  In an odd way, the program serves to recreate much of the work that I helped with in the Mid-20th Century.  "The more things change..."  In another odd coincidence, 2nd Battalion, 2nd Infantry Regiment was my first unit in the Regular Army.  We have a silver cup that was a present from the battalion's officers on the occasion of our marriage.

I read the article closely.  We have been there... done that...  All of it.   I think that Karl is completely correct in thinking that the "oil spots," (les taches de huile) can be made to "connect" with the "grease spots" overlapping until there is not room between them for the agents of a competing vision.

The key to making that work has always been the permanency of the security offered to the people living within the "oil spots."  Without effective protection, the attempt to make Karl's hope work simply makes the villagers better and more concentrated targets.

There will never be enough coalition troops to provide security for an expanding pattern of "oil spots."  What has always been  needed in this kind of effort is a "pyramid" of security forces beginning with village self defense groups, district forces, province forces and national forces standing in reserve to come to the rescue.  In the end,coalition forces can start the process and act as a mobile reserve but the Afghans really have to do the rest themselves once they have been shown how.

I heard Jim Webb say the other day that "Vietnam and Afghanistan (were) completely different situations."  Well, they are and they aren't.  There are no full time VC  combat units to supplement the guerrilla bands, units like the one that had destroyed the village in which I met Edward Kennedy.  There is not an equivalent to the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) with its highly trained, disciplined and equipped troops.  No NVA artillery, tanks, etc.  Thank God.  There will never be anything like that.  On the other hand, there was an effective government in Vietnam.   You may not like that government but it was a lot more effective than many wish to think.  There is very little government in Afghanistan, very little to work with.

The biggest similarity in the two situations is we Americans.  We are the same, for good or ill.

All of this adds up to an immense task, a generational task.  pl

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101926.html

"Study: Oil speculators dominate open interest in oil futures" Ruth

"Using data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the authors state that the previous claims by the commission that speculation wasn't influencing oil futures markets were based on inappropriate analysis. The authors present new evidence that speculative trading is playing an increasingly important role in the oil market.

They note that while the question of what has produced sharp swings in oil prices since 2005 is a complex one that requires further and deeper study, there are "inescapable facts" that need to be part of the debate about regulating the activities of institutions betting on movements in oil price purely for financial gain. Specifically, speculators, which the CFTC designates as any reportable trader who is not using futures contracts to hedge, have increased their footprint in the marketplace dramatically since the late 1990s.

Hedgers are typically producers and consumers of the physical commodity who use futures markets to offset price risk. By contrast, speculators seek profits by taking market positions to gain from changes in the commodity price, but are not involved in the physical receipt/delivery of the commodity.

"To protect the U.S. economy and American consumers, there needs to be greater market oversight," Medlock said. "The tremendous increase in the market presence of speculators by fifteenfold speaks for itself."" Ruth

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Need I say more?  pl

In Memoriam - Edward Kennedy

I knew him slightly.  I briefed him several times in the eighties.  I would go over to his office in the forenoon.  He was usually so hung over that it was difficult to know how much he actually heard or comprehended.  He would occasionally ask questions, good questions.  I liked the man.  I liked his humanity.  Daniel Patrick Moynihan said "what's the good of being Irish if you don't know that the world is going to break your heart?"  I always felt that the world had broken Ted Kennedy's heart and that he drank to dull the pain.  He was not a puritan.  I liked that too.  You could sense that he cared about ordinary people.  He did not much like men like me, but I understood that.  I never reminded him in the course of those briefing meetings that he had met me once before, in Vietnam under terribly difficult conditions.  This had been during a trip he made out there to see the war for himself.

I remember him getting off an Air America Huey in the midst of something terrible, the aftermath of a VC attack on a Montagnard re-settlement village.  He wept after he looked around.  I began to think I might like him.

I did not agree with him about a lot of things politically, but he "was a man for all that," a man with a warm heart.

He belongs to the ages along with a president for whom he must have had a special feeling.  pl

"RED ALERT :: Obama Planning Israel Ambush at Next UN Opening!"

RED ALERT :: Obama Planning Israel Ambush at Next UN Opening! Several sources have informed One Jerusalem that the Obama Administration is planning to significantly step up the pressure on Israel by announcing a comprehensive plan for Israel and the Palestinians at the opening of the United Nations General in September. Picture this: The anti-Israel nations of the world surrounding President Obama as he demands that Israel give up sovereignty over Jerusalem, abandon settlements, and recognize a terrorist state on the West Bank. If this happens, Israel will be isolated from the rest of world in a very dramatic manner. Help stop it by joining One Jerusalem! The first sign that something was up came when Egyptian President Mubarak said that the Obama Administration was ready to propose a plan in September, and the White House rushed to dampen expectations by declaring that they are nowhere near to readying a plan. Our sources confirmed that the Obama administration is contemplating this ambush of Israel at the United Nations. At the moment, friends and supporters of Israel can help derail this insidious plan by helping to publicize the intentions of the Obama administration. Join One Jerusalem Now! Spread the news to family and friends. Forward this mail and encourage them to sign up! By focusing public attention to this ambush, we can help avert it. Change Email Address Send To Friend Unsubscribe You are currently subscribed to this mailing as [EMAIL] One Jerusalem, 136 East 39th Street, New York, NY 10016

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Ignatius on the Obvious in Iraq

"Iran's links with Maliki are so close, said this Iraqi intelligence source, that the prime minister uses an Iranian jet with an Iranian crew for his official travel. The Iranians are said to have sent Maliki an offer to help his Dawa Party win at least 49 seats in January's parliamentary elections if Maliki will make changes in his government that Iran wants.

As security unravels in Iraq, U.S. forces there are mostly bystanders. Even in the areas where al-Qaeda operatives remain potent, such as Mosul, the Americans have little control. Sunni terrorists who are arrested are quickly released by the Iraqis in exchange for bribes of up to $100,000, according to an Iraqi source.

Should the Americans try to restore order? The top Iraqi intelligence source answered sadly that it was probably wiser to "stay out of it and be safe." When pressed about what his country would look like in five years, absent American help, he answered bluntly: "Iraq will be a colony of Iran." "  Ignatius

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Now, let's see...  The United States insisted on country wide elections on the basis of "one man, one vote."  Iraq's Arab Shia are a majority.  The elections yielded governments that were dominated by Shia with lifetime records as religiously focused politicians.  There were other Shia politicians in the elections who were essentially secular nationalists.  The United States favored them and hoped for their election.  Many people in the US smugly expected that these secularists would be elected with a little help from their friends.  They were wrong.  The secularists were badly defeated.  The Shia voted for the religious (dare I say Islamist?) politicians.  Al-Maliki has a lifelong record of Islamist activity and friendly relations with Iran.

Islam teaches that life is a "seamless garment."   For pious Muslims a separation of religious and political concerns is an unacceptable and alien Western notion.  In spite of all the pre-war nonsense about how secularized and "modern" Iraqis are, many Iraqis are quite traditional in their thinking.  They voted in accordance with their true beliefs.  The result is a government that feels a close affinity to the theocracy in Iran.  That does not mean that they are looking to see some sort of union between the two countries or that they want to see Iranian soldiers in Iraq.

The existence of this kind of government is a direct result of American policy in Iraq.  We made this bed, now we must lie in it, at least until we are gone.

Ignatius claims that he could not see this coming?  pl

A Reply - By Richard Sale

I will be brief and be gone.

Someone who commented on my piece, basically said that while I condemned the vitriolic partisanship that refuses to accept President Obama’s election as a legitimate national decision, the hatred and loathing of President George W. Bush by his opponents was portrayed by liberals as normal patriotic dissent and given a pass from criticism.

    This misreads the article.

I took care to show that the disgraceful animosity of certain segments of the public against FDR came from the propertied classes, chiefly Republicans, but  I also took pains to snow the excoriation of our first president, George Washington,  took place at the hands of the Democrat-Republican group formed by Thomas Jefferson and James Madison who loathed the Federalists with whom Washington was  in broad sympathy.

 

Announcement

I chose to post today on "The Athenaeum."  pl

JINSA, SOCOM and the "Grateful Nation" Awards.

This requires no comment from me.  pl

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"Drinking the Koolaid." W. Patrick Lang

This was written in the autumn and winter 0f 2003/2004 and published in The summer number of "Middle East Policy" after "Harper's" who had commissioned me to write the piece refused to do so.  pl

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