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Anthro on Logic

Hegel "Let's look at the logic of the "Hegelian compromise" vs. "Zero-sum" game - particularly it's history. In both cases, the point of diplomacy is to investigate the results of direct application of power (ultimately violence), and then come to that settlement without having to actually take the losses of violence. It's like rams butting heads - they can discover which one would win an all out fight while avoiding that fight. Now, in cultures derived primarily from imperial Rome, like the Eastern Christian world and the Muslim world, there's an assumption that the world is composed of a singular hierarchy, where equality is equality of submission to a higher entity. Negotiations would then obviously be negotiations of surrender once it was ascertained who would "naturally" win an all-out battle. This come from the experience of millenia under unified empires. In the West where centuries of competing hierarchies and anarchy held sway, the heathen Greek idea of Dike survived. A balance of power is understood to be a natural state, where equality is one of a dynamic tension between two parties which can not destroy the other without mutual annihilation. So diplomacy is often, but not always, "Hegelian" because both parties understand that neither can win, and no third party can dominate both of them. What does this mean about Cheney and his ilk? They are monotheists in a political sense. They assume that all fights have a winner and a loser - that stalemates only come about due to a lack of will. If that's true, democracy makes no sense: it's simply a utopian delusion with no grounding in the hard reality of power and war. At best, it's a useful tool to quiet the herd. Their approach to science reflects this, their approach to diplomacy reflects this, their approach to war reflects this. We're not so different - what differs is a lynch-pin understanding of how politics naturally settles out. History says that both understandings are stable, if a critical mass of players agree on the nature of reality. Sumeria survived for millenia as a "Heathen" system, and so did Rome as a "Monotheistic" system. We may be on the cusps of a change here. Cheney and his fellow travellers have created a zero-sum reality in American politics. They have played hard-ball with the civil service and the military. The opposition will have a difficult time not acting as if we are under a winner-takes-all system. If they fail to do that, the professional employees who have been completely replaced by ideological players will undermine them; but if they do clean house, the imperial pattern will become entrenched. Something similar may happen on the international front. Since we've abandoned the post-WWII idea of building up our defeated adversaries, it would be foolish for our adversaries, once they have us down, not to try to finish us off. The idea that international politics is multilateral will be sorely damaged if Cheney gets his chance to push his "advantage" to the hilt. Even Buchanan fears this in a recent op-ed piece!" Anthro

Dowd on Cheney and Iran

Ancientcivilizationstheromanempirep "VICE PRESIDENT DICK CHENEY: Good morning, Tim.

RUSSERT: How close are we to war with Iran?

CHENEY: Well, I think we are in the final stages of diplomacy, obviously. We have done virtually everything we can with respect to carrots, if you will. It’s time for squash. Not to mention mushrooms, clouds of them.

RUSSERT: But you squashed Iraq and that didn’t work out so well.

CHENEY: Iraq will be fine, Tim. It just needs a firmer hand. We learned that lesson. We’re not going to get hung up on democracy this time. (Expletive) purple thumbs.

RUSSERT: Isn’t Secretary Rice still pushing carrots for Iran?

CHENEY: The more carrots Condi feeds ’em, the better they’ll be able to see the bombs coming."  Maureen Dowd

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People keep asking me - what's wrong with the vice president?  That's an important question.  Some who have known him a long time still express surprise at the emergence in 2000 of a "new man," a man seemingly indifferent to the opinions of others, a man who did not feel others' pain well and who sought to "game" all encounters as if they were "zero-sum" routines in a business school rather than as a search for the consensus needed in a democratically ruled state.

Some have told me that he must have had some awful experience with Muslims to make him so hostile and indifferent to their right to lead their own lives unmolested.  9/11?  It is hard for me to believe that a resolution to change others that seems so complete and fell was not in him before this opportunity to express the deed.

His evident contempt for; the two "competing" branches of the federal government, the states and citizen opinion are so clear that any expressions on his part of a desire to compromise with anyone are suspect.  Dowd has captured that well.  "Diplomacy?" Cheney?  It seems to me that he has adopted the traditional view of "diplomacy" as it is understood in the Middle East.  There, diplomacy is, in fact, usually not the Hegelian bargaining that we imagine.  No, it is actually the process of arranging the terms of a surrender.  That is surely the "diplomacy" that we are offering the Iranians.

When Cheney or his spiritual clone talk of diplomacy you can be fairly sure that something other than a compromise solution is envisioned.

What is the VP about?  After long contemplation I have regretfully come to the conclusion that he just does not like our present form of government.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/opinion/28dowd.html?em&ex=1193716800&en=9760f169dbded406&ei=5087%0A

"Who Loveth Best" Alan Farrell

Displayimage I put this on once before but there are now so many new Farrell "Groupies" that I thought I should give you another chance to contemplate the deep symbolism of this neo-Kafkaesque gem.  pl

Download who_loveth_best.pdf

Open Thread - Any Subject

I will be occupied with something for a few days.  pl

"A Purple Heart and A Dime" Alan Farrell

12_1 I thought about writing something today about the looming menace of Iranian ICBMs (quoting the commander guy here) or the irony of the thought that we might bomb Kurds because they are an unruly pain in the tail.  Yes I know.  The PKK are really screwing things up, but it would, nevertheless be an irony perceptible for those who are condemned to ironic contemplation.  Then there is the Syrian boondoggle of the Israeli Air Force.  Why has there been secrecy about the strike?  The Israelis wanted it that way.  Simple.  Occam, Sherlock and the duck rule strike again. (Look it up or someone here will explain it to you)  Not today, folks.

A lot of you wanted to read more of Alan Farrell's musings.  This appeared in "Arion." Have at it.  I have mostly quit expressing Alan's level of skepticism of professional "NAMVETS."  I found that such thoughts are not tolerated by many.  In particular I remember a retired diplomat who said that my lack of "compassion" told him that although I had been near combat I had never actually fought.  He told me that although he had never served in the military, his trauma was a burden.  You never know...  pl

Download arion_odysseus.doc

"Pakistan on the Brink" by FB Ali

359155333_4b3d0c36c1_o_2 Farrukh B. Ali has written us a perceptive essay on the parlous state of Pakistan today.  pl

Download pakistan_on_the_brink.doc

Zuckerman on Iranian Intentions

Slide0034_image065 Sunday mornings I devote to watching the newsy talkies.  Sad, but necessary.  The terriers get me up by 0730 anyway.  Good coffee helps to bolster spirits for the experience.  One of the weeklies that I watch is the McLaughlin thing.  In spite of the yelling and rudeness, the views of some of these people are worth knowing, if only for the influence they have and the money they spread around among the merely "officed."

Mort Zuckerman is one such.  A billionaire press baron on the model of Beaverbrook or the "dirty digger," (a British epithet), Zuckerman never misses a chance to push his world wide agenda.

Today, he said (if I heard right) that the mere possession by Iran of a cascading centrifuge setup for uranium enrichment is "proof" of Iranian intention to produce nuclear weapons.

Now, I am no "nucular" engineer, but if I read the available materials right, it is necessary to enrich uranium somewhat to produce fuel for nuclear electricity plants.  A further enrichment is necessary to produce weapons grade enriched uranium. 

Iran claims that it wants nuclear generated electricity.  There is a plausible case for that.  Iran has a lot of gas and oil deposits, but they are not infinite and they are pretty much the country's only economic resource other than caviar, carpets and pistachio nuts.  The Iranians say they want to exchange the petroleum for foreign exchange rather than burn it for electricity.

The IAEA says that they have not found proof of Iranian progress toward nuclear weapons.

Mortimer Zuckerman thinks otherwise.

Does this sound like the Iraq farce to anyone but me?  pl

Inexcusable Negligence at Minot AFB

800pxagm129a__050323f1234p015 "Air Force weapons officers assigned to secure nuclear warheads failed on five occasions to examine a bundle of cruise missiles headed to a B-52 bomber in North Dakota, leading the plane's crew to unknowingly fly six nuclear-armed missiles across the country.

That August flight, the first known incident in which the military lost track of its nuclear weapons since the dawn of the atomic age, lasted nearly three hours, until the bomber landed at Barksdale Air Force Base in northern Louisiana.

But according to an Air Force investigation presented to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Friday, the nuclear weapons sat on a plane on the runway at Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota for nearly 24 hours without ground crews noticing the warheads had been moved out of a secured shelter.

"This was an unacceptable mistake," said Air Force Secretary Michael W. Wynne at a Pentagon news conference. "We would really like to ensure it never happens again.""  Spiegel in the LA Times

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Let's say that during the three hour flight from North Dakota to Louisiana there had occurred an in flight emergency, perhaps a loss of some number of engines.  Let us say that the aircraft commander decided in such an emergency to lighten the load by jettisoning things that were not permanently attached to the airplane.  Presumably the first to go would have been things that did not have rocket motors or explosives attached.  After that....  Well ,in the midst of an emergency, losing power and altitude would the aircraft CO not have considered "dumping" these cruise missiles over what - Kansas, maybe?  After all, he did not know that these were nuclear weapons..

The government will always assure the public in incidents like this that the weapon could not detonate.   It is certainly unlikely, but the vagaries of impact of such a machine on the earth makes that less than totally reassuring.  At the very least, the fissile material in the weapons could be spread around in a dangerous way, and then, there is the possibility of a less than full yield detonation in a variety of ways.

The USAF and Navy kept a tight grip on these instruments of the devil for all the period of the Cold War.  This awful example of neglect of duty and inattention to detail is appalling in its illustration of the dangers of complacency.  pl

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-nuke20oct20,1,2808037.story?coll=la-headlines-nation

This is the warhead involved.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/w80.htm

The description of the warhead assures that the possibility of a nuclear detonation in an accident is "minimal."

"The Butcher's Cleaver" Now for Sale

Zoom_cr Please visit the web site for my novel "The Butcher's Cleaver."   It is now for sale on-line at Barnes & Noble, Amazon and iUniverse.com

pl

www.rosemontbooks.com

For sale at these lnks:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_gw/104-0278800-4247125?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=The+Butcher%27s+cleaver&x=11&y=11

http://search.barnesandnoble.com/booksearch/results.asp?WRD=The+Butcher%27s+Cleaver&z=y

http://www.iuniverse.com/bookstore/book_detail.asp?isbn=0-595-47476-4

In the UK the book can be bought on-line at "Foyles" and at "WHSmith."  In Australia and New Zealand "Fishpond.com" carries the book.

A review of the book recently appeared in the Defense Intelligence Agency newspaper:

Download DIAReview.pdf

What are the odds on Bhutto?

Archduke There were three suicide bombers on foot in the crowd and someone fired several shots that hit the bullet resistant glass where she was supposed to be sitting.

Musharraf has been the target of a number of assassination plots but this set of attacks on Benazir Bhutto just after she descended from the aircraft that brought her home raises once again the question of the future of Pakistan, a country that possesses deliverable nuclear weapons and aircraft configured to do the job.

The Pakistani military is thoroughly infiltrated by men of doubtful loyalty to a Western alliance.  Without the past help or passive acceptance of such men the Taliban and al-Qaeda would never have become the menace that they still are.

No.  The US did not sponsor either group.  We  sponsored other groups. Look it up.

Nevertheless, the situation in Pakistan remains largely a question of the survival of a handful of people like Musharraf and Bhutto.  Perhaps next time the plotters will have better luck.  If they do then, a sudden reversal in Pakistan which produces a government committed to an Islamist course is distinctly possible.

The threat of Iranian nuclear weapons is distant and still inconclusive.  The threat that would be posed by Pakistani weapons would be immediate.  pl

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2696680.ece

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